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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Thursday, September 11, 2014 8:03 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
Swell Potential Rating = 2.0 - California & 4.0 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)
Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 9/8 thru Sun 9/14

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Swell #4S Pushing Towards Hawaii
North Pacific Forecast to Become a Little More Productive

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

 

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (9/11) in North and Central CA
the first NPac swell of the season was hitting with waves chest high and soft but with clean conditions and sunny. A beautiful day for the beach. Down in Santa Cruz surf was waist high on the sets and clean but soft and generally pretty quiet. In Southern California up north surf was waist high and swamped with north winds building whitecaps just outside the surf zone. Down south waves were chest high and pulsing some but textured and still suffering from a carved out bottom except at reefs and rock bottomed breaks. Hawaii's North Shore was still getting fun sized North Pacific swell with waves chest high with some bigger sets and lined up and clean with light offshores. The South Shore was small with surf in the thigh high range occasionally and clean. On the East Shore windswell was producing waves to thigh high and chopped by light trades. 

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
For the North Pacific swell was hitting California and still lingering in Hawaii from a small gale that generated near 30 ft seas on the dateline Fri PM (9/5). No windswell of interest was being produced for California. Trades were suppressed for Hawaii with no rideable windswell being produced. The remnants of Tropical Storm Fengshen are approaching the dateline with winds down to 30-35 kts targeting primarily Hawaii. Small swell from earlier in it's life is in the water pushing towards Hawaii. Tropical Storm Odile was off mainland Mexico tracking northwest and forecast to build some. The models project the remnants of Fengshen are to redevelop in the Northern Gulf of Alaska on Sat (9/13) generating 25 ft seas targeting the US West Coast and Canada. And remnants of that system are theoretically to redevelop just off North CA mid-next week. that would be unusual indeed if it were to occur. In the southern hemisphere swell from what was strong but small Storm #4S was in the water hitting Tahiti and pushing towards Hawaii and California, but mainly focused either north of Monterey Bay or south of mid-Baja. After that no storms of interest are forecast with the SPac going to sleep.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis.cgius forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview 
Surface Analysis  - On Thursday (9/11) weak high pressure was ridging into British Columbia, with a weak gradient fading off Cape Mendocino producing 20 kt north winds and barely any north shore period windswell pushing down into Central CA. Trades were below the 15 kt threshold relative to Hawaii with no easterly windswell resulting there. Of more interest was the extratropical remnants of what was Tropical Storm Fengshen was pushing over the dateline with winds 30 to barely 35 kts and seas barely 20 ft at 40N 170E (312 degrees - see Tropics section). Swell from a gale that developed on the dateline on Fri (9/5) was hitting California (see Small Dateline Gale below) and pushing towards the US West Coast.

Over the next 72 hours the remnants of Fengshen are to become absorbed in a develop gale in the Central Bering Sea on Fri AM (9/12) and falling south with 30 kt westerly fetch forecast just south of the Aleutians on the dateline and building east into the evening. 18 ft seas forecast at 50N 176W and of no interest. By Saturday AM (9/13) 45 kt winds to start building north of the Aleutians with 35-40 kt west winds falling south of the Aleutians in the evening. 25 kts seas are forecast over a modest sized area at 51N 166W (308 degrees NCal) with no fetch aimed at Hawaii. 30-35 kt west winds to track east into Sun AM (9/14) generating more 23 ft seas at 52N 160W (310 degs NCal). Winds to fade below 30 kts in the evening with seas dropping from 20 ft at 53N 158W and of no interest to anyone other than Alaska. Assuming all this develops as forecast some degree of 14-15 sec period swell could result for British Columbia, the Pacific Northwest down into Central CA.

Otherwise no local fetch is expected relative to California. Trades to remain suppressed for Hawaii.

 

Small Dateline Gale
A small low pressure system started building just west of the dateline on Thurs AM (9/5) producing 35 kt northeast winds in the gales north quadrant later in the day.  
On Friday AM (9/6) a solid fetch of 30-35 kt north winds were set up on the dateline over a small area aimed south a bit west of Hawaii. 18 ft seas developed at 38N 170E aimed south.  In the evening 45 kt northwest winds quickly developed in the gales southwest quadrant taking aim on Hawaii with a tiny area of 28 ft seas modeled at 42N 175E (320 degs HI) peaking at 30 ft at 06Z Sat (9/6) at 42N 180W. On Sat AM (9/6) winds were fading fast from 35 kts with seas fading from 26 ft at 42N 177W targeting Hawaii and the US West Coast well. (320 degs HI, 293 degs NCal, 297 degs SCal). In the evening winds were fading from 30 kts with the gale lifting gently north and seas 20 ft at 43N 177W targeting Hawaii and the US West Coast (325 degs HI, 295 degs NCal, 299 degs SCal). A quick fade followed with winds down to 25 kts Sun AM (9/7) with 17 ft seas retreating to 44N 175W. 

Some modest early season 14-15 sec period swell to result for Hawaii and tiny energy for the mainland. It's a step in the right direction.

NCal: Residuals on Fri AM (9/12) at 2 ft @ 11-12 secs (2.5 ft faces). Swell Direction: 293 degrees

  North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
Tropical Storm Fengshen
on Sun AM (9/7) was positioned 250 nmiles south of Southern Japan tracking east-northeast with winds 45 kts and seas 12 ft. Fengshen continued this heading and intensified some with winds building to 50 kts Tues AM (9/9) and seas to 20 ft over a tiny area at 33N 147E (296 degs HI) 3,000 nmiles from HI. The models suggested 34 ft seas erroneously. Fengshen continued on this heading producing supposedly up to 30 ft seas through Wed AM (9/10) at 36N 159E (305 degs HI) and then fading from there with 23 ft seas at 38N 166E (308 degs HI). The issue is the fetch was tiny, getting only the smallest of footprint on the oceans surface. Still some tiny background swell is possible for exposed breaks mainly on Kauai starting Sun AM (9/14) and peaking late at 3 ft @ 14-15 secs late (4.5 ft), though that seems optimistic. Swell holding into Mon (9/15) at 3.4 ft @ 12-13 secs (4.0-4.5 ft) fading late. Swell Direction: 296-308 degrees

Tropical Storm Odile on Thurs AM (9/11) was 300 nmiles west-southwest of Acapulco Mexico with winds 45 kts and nearly stationary. This system is expected to start tracking northwest on Friday (9/12) while intensifying building to 100 kts Mon AM (9/15) positioned at 22N 112.5W or 150 nmiles west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas Baja. This would put it barely in the swell window for Pt Dume (152 degrees) and still east of the window for Dana Point. A quick fade is to set in over the next 24 hours as Odile moves into the Dana Point swell window Monday night (159 degrees) into Tues AM (9/16). Assuming all goes as forecast and given the projected wind speeds and heading,small swell could result for exposed breaks in SCal. But it would coincide with arrival of swell from Storm #4S. Something to monitor.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Thursday AM (9/11) modest high pressure at 1028 mbs was ridging into British Columbia forming a weak gradient off North CA generating 20 kt north-northeast winds there. Otherwise a light eddy flow to near clam winds were in control of California coastal waters from Pt Arena southward. That gradient is to be gone by later Friday (15 kts or less). A light eddy flow to be in control of Central CA. No change is forecast through Tuesday (9/17). But on Wednesday with a weak low is to try to wrap up off the North CA coast with something that looks like a front and south winds developing reaching south to maybe Pt Reyes. But it is to dissipate fast Thurs AM with high pressure trying to nose in under Low pressure in the Northern Gulf. Still, light winds forecast everywhere.

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream - On Thursday (9/11) the southern branch of the jetstream was running flat west to east down at 62S (zonal flow) with winds 130 kts in 2 pockets but with no ridges or troughs indicated. There was no real support for gale development suggested in lower levels of the atmosphere. Over the next 72 hours winds speeds in the southern branch of the jet to rapidly fade dropping to 40 kts or less under New Zealand and fading from 120 kts in pockets over the Southeast Pacific. No troughs nor any support for gale development is indicated. Beyond 72 hours a continued weak zonal flow is forecast in the Southwest Pacific at 70 kts then falling south into a ridge over the far Southeast Pacific into Thurs (9/18). No support for gale development is indicated.

Surface Analysis - On Thursday (9/11) swell from Storm #4S was hitting Tahiti and radiating northeast towards Hawaii, California and Central America (see Second Strong New Zealand Storm #4S below).

Otherwise two high pressure cells at 1036 and 1032 mbs were lined up on the 40S latitude line driving wind vectors southeast into Antarctica for any low pressure systems south of there. In short, no swell production for our forecast area was occurring. Over the next 72 hours no change is forecast (thru Sun 9/14).

A small gale is forecast for the South Tasman Sea Sun-Mon (9/15) generating up to barely 45 kts winds for 6 hours and 27 ft seas at 45S 162E Sun PM (9/14) or well up the 202 degree path to Fiji. 15 sec period swell possible there if all goes as forecast.

 

Primer Gale
On Friday AM (9/5) a small gale started developing southwest of New Zealand generating 40 kt west winds over a tiny area aimed east and starting to get traction on the oceans surface. By evening that fetch was hanging on and positioned directly under New Zealand generating 40 kt west winds and 28 ft seas at 56S 170E. The fetch eased east Sat AM (9/6) and was fading from 35 kts with seas fading from 28 ft at 56S 177W.  This was not so much a swell producer as an agent to rough up the oceans surface. 19 ft seas from it were still present Sat evening in the same area that storm #4S was starting to develop, enabling it's fetch to get great traction.     

 

Second Strong New Zealand Storm #4S
On Sat PM (9/6) a small storm started forming south of the Tasman Sea generating 55 kt southwest winds with 36 ft seas at 56S 158E pushing flat east. This fetch is to be getting good traction on an already roughed up ocean surface with 18 ft seas courtesy of the Primer Gale that preceded it.  Fetch was well into storm force on Sun AM (9/7) with 60-65 kt southwest winds in.cgiay just southeast of New Zealand at 55S 173E (195 degs HI, 212 degs NCal and barely unshadowed, 213 degs SCal and shadowed) with seas 51 ft at 55S 172E (196 degs HI, 213 degs NCal and unshadowed, 214 degs SCal and shadowed). Fetch was starting to fade but still respectable in the evening blowing from the southwest at 55 kts with seas peaking at 55 ft at 55S 176W (189 degs HI, 208 degs NCal and shadowed, 210 degs SCal and unshadowed). Most energy aimed a bit east of optimal relative to the great circle tracks to the north. The Jason-2 satellite passed over the southwest quadrant of the storm at 06Z Mon (9/8) reporting average seas 39.3 ft with a peak single reading to 43.7 ft where the model depicted 36-37 ft seas. The model undercalled seas based on this data. By Monday AM (9/8) south-southwest winds were fading from 50 kts and seas from previous fetch fading from 46 ft at 54S 170W kts (184 degs HI, 206 degs NCal and shadowed, 207 degs SCal and unshadowed). The Jason-2 satellite passed over the core of the storm at 14Z and reported average seas at 43.8 ft with a peak single reading at 46.3 ft where the model depicted 46 ft seas. The model was overhyping the seas slightly.  By evening fetch was falling from 45 kts but blowing straight to the north with seas from previous fetch decaying from 39 ft at 50S 165W (181 degs HI, 206 degs NCal and shadowed, 207 degs SCal and unshadowed). Tues AM (9/9) winds were fully south and fading from 40 kts with seas 34 ft at 48S 157W (180 degs HI, 203 degs NCal and unshadowed, 205 degs SCal and unshadowed).

This system was a bit too much on an easterly track to be optimal for much of our forecast area, with the preference for the storm to track northeast up and off the eastern coast of New Zealand. But the winds in the storm were blowing well to the northeast (early) and north (later) pushing well up the great circle tracks to California, but less so for Tahiti and Hawaii. And given the sheer force of this system and the height of the seas (51-55 ft for 12+ hours), some decent swell should result (even with the shadow relative to CA). But NCal was unshadowed for the first part of the peak of the seas production where SCal was fully shadowed. Jason-2 data suggested the model did a good job of imaging sea heights, doing the usual job of undercalling it early in it's life and overcalling it later in it's life.

The net effect is that solid long period swell is expected for Hawaii and then into California, but only from Monterey Bay northward. South of there down to 60% down Baja is to be in the shadow, and as a result non-significant class swell to result in that area. This will be an interest case study on the effects of the shadow, assuming Hurricane Odile does not pollute the data set. Swell of 3.6 ft @ 17-18 secs is expected in far North CA (6.5 ft faces), and only 2.4 ft 2 17-18 secs (4.2 ft faces) in Southern CA. An interesting reversal of the normal size trend.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Fri afternoon (9/12) with period 25 secs and size tiny. Swell to build Sat (9/13) pushing 3 ft @ 20 secs late (6 ft with sets to 7.4 ft - bigger at breaks with good bathymetry). Swell to peak on Sun (9/14) early at 3.3 ft @ 18 secs (6.0 ft with sets to 7.4 ft and bigger at top breaks). Swell to continue solid on Mon AM (9/15) at 3.3 ft @ 16 secs (5.3 ft with sets to 6.6 ft). Period dropping to 15 secs late. On Tues AM (9/16) swell to be fading from 3.1 ft @ 14-15 secs (4.5 ft faces with sets to 5.6 ft and bigger at top breaks). Swell fading Wed (9/17) from 2.5 ft @ 14 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 185-194 degrees with most energy from 192 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival starting Sun (9/14) with period 25 secs building to 1.0 ft @ 23-24 secs late (2.5 ft). Swell to continue building into Mon (9/15) pushing 1.6 ft @ 21 secs late (3.4 ft faces with sets to 4.2 ft). Swell is to start building solidly by Tues AM (9/16) as period hits 20 secs building to 2.0 ft @ 18.5 secs late (4.0 ft with sets to 5.0 ft). Swell to continue upwards on Wed (9/17) pushing 2.5 ft @ 17-18 secs early (4.4 ft with sets to 5.6 ft - though this is likely understated some). 16 sec energy expected on Thurs (9/18) and then fading on Friday. Peak Swell Direction: 210-215 degrees  

North CA: Expect swell arrival starting Sun (9/14) with period 25 secs building to 1.3 ft @ 23-24 secs late (3 ft). Swell to continue building into Mon (9/15) pushing 2.3 ft @ 20-21 secs late (4.4 ft faces with sets to 5.9 ft). Swell is to start building solidly by Tues AM (9/16) as period hits 20 secs building to 3 ft @ 18.5 secs late (5.5 ft with sets to 7 ft). Swell to continue upwards on Wed (9/17) pushing 3.2 ft @ 17-18 secs early (5.6 ft with sets to 7.0 ft). 16 sec energy expected on Thurs (9/18) fading from 2 ft @ 16 secs early (3.5 ft with sets to 4.0 ft). Peak Swell Direction: 208-213 degrees  

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours high pressure is to take over the dateline region at 1024 mbs but depressed south with the Aleutian storm corridor remaining open. Remnant low pressure associated with the North Gulf of Alaska gale is to fall south and redevelop off North CA on Tues (9/16) producing a small area of 30 kt northwest winds and maybe 18 ft seas at 41N 140W fading out Wednesday. Something to monitor.

MJO/ENSO Update
Note: The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equatorial Pacific it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slack if not an outright reversal of trade winds and enhanced precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the.cgianet. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to .cgiit resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) On Thursday (9/11) the daily SOI was up some at -5.70. The 30 day average was down to  -9.53 and the 90 day average was down some at -7.02. The near term trend based on the 30 day average was indicative of a Active Phase of the MJO. The longer term pattern was indicative of the Active Phase of the MJO. Low pressure was building south of Tahiti dragging the SOI negative and expected to hold into Sun (9/14). High pressure and a rising SOI to follow into Wed (9/17) then falling some again.

Current equatorial surface wind analysis indicated modest west anomalies were over the Maritime Continent fading as they moved towards the dateline turning almost neutral there then rebuilding some south of Hawaii. Neutral anomalies extended from there to the Galapagos. A week from now (9/19) moderate east anomalies are forecast over the Maritime Continent fading to neutral over the dateline, with moderate west anomalies extending from south of Hawaii almost to the Galapagos. This suggests a Active MJO-like pattern was over the Central Pacific. The TOA array indicated modest west anomalies from 140E to the dateline. This is probably a better representation of reality.

Looking at the trend over the past few months there has not been a extended period of enhanced trades so far this year, and we're over 245 days into the year.  The trend is clearly towards westerly anomalies which suggests a bias towards El Nino. Big westerly wind bursts occurred Jan-April, followed by a neutral period May into early June. The TOA array surface sensors (the ground truth) indicated moderate westerly anomalies re-developed west of the dateline 6/25-7/6, then again 7/11-7/20, building into a WWB and holding through 8/10. Light westerly anomalies developed again 8/20-8/22, 8/29-9/2 and 9/10 west of the dateline. Neutral anomalies filled the gaps. Latest data from the TAO array indicates modest west anomalies from 140E to the dateline on 9/10. Another Kelvin Wave (modest at this point) is in-flight associated with westerly anomalies during June, July into mid-August. Compared to La Nina where enhanced trades (20+ kts) would be blowing non-stop, we're in great shape and have been all year. No easterly anomalies of interest have occurred all year. It would be hard to make a case stating some flavor of weak El Nino was not in.cgiay at this point.  

See our new Kelvin Wave Generation Area monitoring model here.

Previously a series of WWBs occurred 1/8-4/20 creating a large Kelvin Wave that impacted Ecuador, the Galapagos and Peru, May and June. This was very similar situation that led up to the big El Nino's of '82/32 and '97/98. But in those instances the WWBs and Kelvin Wave generation progressed non-stop through the Summer and Fall months. An article presenting a Comparison between the genesis of the 1997 El Nino and this 2014 WWB event has been posted here. A second analysis from 5/28 is posted here.  

The longer range Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) models (dynamic and statistical) run on 9/10 are generally in sync. They both suggest a neutral signal was in control over the far West Pacific. a neutral pattern is to hold for the next 15 days per the Statistic model.  The Dynamic model depicts a moderately Inactive pattern building 5 days out and peaking 15 days out. The ultra long range upper level model run 9/11 suggests a moderately Active Phase was over the East Pacific and is to track out of the picture over Central America on 9/28. A weak Inactive Phase is to build behind in the West Pacific starting 9/28 tracking east reaching the East Pacific on 10/16. Recent experience this year suggests this model is overhyping any projected Inactive Phase. The suspicion is this model does not work well in an El Nino like situation. We're looking for a very weak MJO pattern biased Active if an El Nino were developing. This is what happened during July, even though the model suggested an Inactive Phase was to develop. And that is what happened in August too (see TAO westerly wind anomaly reports above). This suggests that warming water in the equatorial East Pacific is starting to have some impact on the atmosphere above, however slight. The upper level model tends to be a leading indicator, with surface level anomalies lagging behind 1 week or more.    

Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean.  As of the most recent low res imagery (9/11) nothing has changed. A moderately warm water regime remains in control of the equatorial East Pacific, but down some from the peak of the Kelvin Wave eruptions in late June, and a little more ragged. Still, it's held up way better than expected even through the upwelling Kelvin Wave Phase in July. And if anything a full scale regeneration of warm water is in progress over the NINO 3.4 region with +0.5 deg C anomalies over the entire equator and +1.0 deg anomalies near 160E (Kelvin Wave Generation Area) and east of 120W. Hi res imagery indicates a string of warm pockets building over the width of the equator between the Galapagos and the dateline. Even though the bulk of the massive Kelvin Wave earlier this year has dispersed, another source of warm water is in.cgiay. 

Elsewhere, the entire North Pacific Ocean is full of warmer than normal water. There are virtually no signs of high pressure induced upwelling streaming southwest off California as would be expected this time of year. And serious warm water is entrenched along the California coast and building in coverage, the exact opposite of the trend of the past 3+ years. Waters temps in San Francisco are 62 degrees and holding solid.  Very rare. But this is expected if El Nino were in.cgiay. This is significant in that is suggests the Gulf of Alaska High pressure system is much weakened relative to normal years, with north winds and upwelling much suppressed. The South Pacific is mostly normal/neutral except for cool water streaming off Southern Chile pushing west reaching up to the equator just south of Hawaii. But even the areal coverage of that pocket is in decline, suggesting a warm regime is getting the upper hand over the entire Pacific Basin. Overall the total amount of warmer than normal water in the North Pacific remains most impressive, while the South Pacific is starting to trend in the same direction.  

Subsurface Waters Temps on the equator are on the rebound.  As of 9/11 a +1.0 C anomaly flow was arching from the dateline down to 150 meters under the equator then pushing up towards the Galapagos. This is great news indicating the pipe is open and modest warm waters are pushing east. And imbedded in that flow is a sizable pocket of +3-4 deg C anomalies centered near 130W pushing towards the Galapagos. The leading edge of this new Kelvin Wave is making quick advances now at 110W. Satellite data from 9/5 depicts a solid and building area of +5 cm anomalies are covering the dateline region and tracking east reaching to 105W, also indicative of a Kelvin Wave pushing east. Other models collaborate the presumption of Kelvin Wave genesis. The latest chart of upper Ocean Heat Content (9/5) indicates a new modest Kelvin Wave is developing in the west reaching east to 110W, with the cool upwelling Phase of the previous Kelvin Wave gone. It is assumed more light westerly anomalies feed more warm water into this building Kelvin Wave. At this time we are over the proverbial 'hump'. When the Kelvin Wave arrives at the Galapagos (~Sept 30), more warm water will reinforce the existing warm pool theoretically pushing things into minimal El Nino territory. That cannot be declared until it happens, but everything is lining up.   

Pacific Counter Current data as of 9/6 suggests a mixed pattern. The current is pushing west to east over the entire West and Central Pacific north of the equator on the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) reaching into Central America. But the current itself is pushing east to west on the equator, the exact opposite of the direction it should be pushing. East anomalies are on the equator between 140E-180W in the heart of the Kelvin Wave Generation Area. Westerly anomalies were on the equator from 110-150W.  This data suggests a very mixed picture. As of right now it appears the easterly current is overtaking the westerly component. Not a good sign.   

Projections from the monthly CFSv2 model run 9/10 have stabilized. It suggests water temps building to +0.5 deg C by early Oct peaking at +0.85 deg C in Dec (down from the +1.75 deg C predicted in May and then revised down to +1.55 deg C predicted in early July) holding into May 2015, then presumably fading, but not drastically per the model. Interestingly this model actually depicts warm waters dissipating in the Nino1+2 regions in August then redeveloping in the Nino 3.4 regions in Sept and gaining momentum and areal coverage while building back into Nino1.2 into Jan-Feb 2015 link.

Analysis: A massive Kelvin Wave was generated by successive Westerly Wind Bursts in Jan-April and erupted in the Galapagos region late June and is now dispersed. The WWB ended on 5/1 with the last of the warm water from it arriving 3 months later over the Galapagos on 8/1. At one point it looked like neutral water temps would be taking over the Galapagos-Ecuador-Peru triangle with no immediate Kelvin Wave reinforcements projected. But instead a persistent warm water temp regime stabilized there, and not much different temperature-wise from what it was at the peak of Kelvin Wave impact.  And renewed weak WWB and west anomalies developed in the West Pacific in July and August have produced a new Kelvin Wave with +3 degs C in flight now. We had been thinking the gap between the 2 Kelvin Waves cause water temps to decease in the Nino regions, likely to near neutral. But that did not happened. Instead water temps have held in the Galapagos triangle in the +1.5 degree range. There was some temporary loss of water temps in the Nino3.4 range, but it is now rebounding with some other process at work keeping water temp stable in the Galapagos region. This is good news. 

Assuming westerly anomalies continue in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (west of the dateline), more warm water will migrate east. This is a reasonable assumption seeing how there has been virtually no easterly anomalies for the first 8 months of this year. And trades tend to weaken during Fall months in the northern hemi, meaning we're just now starting to reach the point in time where Westerly Wind Bursts should have the best support for development. All data suggests we're at the end of the 'upwelling' Phase of the Kelvin Wave. It's normal after a downwelling Kevin Wave impacts the Ecuador coast, especially a massive one like just experienced, that some period of upwelling (cooling) occurs. And for that to be true, the upwelling Phase of the Kelvin Wave cycle would be facilitated by a lack of westerly winds in the West Pacific (as what occurred during May and June). Most El Nino's do not develop till the Fall, including the Super El Nino of '83/83. Only a few (namely the '97 Super El Nino) developed and survived strong through the summer and over the span of an entire year. A more 'normal' development life cycle would favor the alternating 'downwelling/upwelling' Kelvin Wave cycle. See currently Upper Oceanic Heat Content chart here. Notice the alternating eastward migrating 'cool' and 'warm' cycles (upwelling/downwelling Kelvin Waves).

The CFSv2 model depicts exactly this scenario.cgiaying out, with water temps in Nino1.2 fading in August then redeveloping in September, exactly filling the 'hole' scenario described above. The redevelopment of westerly winds started in July and is hoped to continue into at least August if not beyond, resulting in a new Kelvin Wave. All evidence at this time suggests this is the case. Monitoring surface wind anomalies in the West Pacific remains critical to determining the future of this years potential El Nino pattern. 

And finally, there's the 'feedback loop' consideration.  We suspect it might already be in.cgiay. The largest argument in favor of that is the total breakdown of the Gulf of Alaska high pressure system, resulting in very high water temps off California. Also the early season recurving of mult.cgie tropical low pressure systems tracking northeast off Japan bound for the dateline. And the pulse of tropical activity near Hawaii on the week of 8/4 and those systems continued evolution in the West Pacific is most telling. And then that pulse was followed by another pulse off Mexico (818-8/28) resulting in Lowell and Super Hurricane Marie. The last time this happened was during the '97 El Nino. The only argument against the feedback loop now is the development of a west moving Pacific Counter Current. Previous negative arguments concerning a dissipating Kelvin Wave, degradation of peak water temps in the Ecuador triangle and only a neutral 90 day SOI (rather than a negative one) have all turned in favor of an El Nino like pattern. For the most part they were just symptoms of the upwelling Phase of the Kelvin Wave cycle. Only once the ocean and atmosphere are co.cgied on a global level (that is, the ocean has imparted enough heat into the atmosphere to start changing the global jetstream pattern) can one begin to have confidence that a feedback loop is developing and a fully matured El Nino can result. About 3 months of undisturbed heating is required for the atmosphere to start responding on a global level where the point of 'no return' could be achieved. The warm pool starting forming in earnest on 5/1, and so the atmosphere would not trip over the 'no-return' point till 8/1. We have passed that threshold. As of 9/2, all the arguments against a feedback loop being in.cgiace were fading out except the Pacific Counter Current. Assuming the arguments against co.cgiing were all associated with the upwelling Kelvin Wave phase, then one can conclude the ocean and atmosphere are now linked/teleconnected.  Considering the size and duration of the westerly wind bursts in Jan-April, it seem hard to believe that at least some Pacific Basin wide 'change' was not already well entrenched even early this year, and had been developing since perhaps as early and Oct of 2013 (when the first Kelvin Wave of the series started taking shape). Monitoring the number, location and track of tropical systems in the North Pacific over the next few weeks will help to sort things out, as will monitoring westerly wind anomalies and warm subsurface water buildup in and under the Kelvin Wave Generation area. Also monitoring of the NPac jetstream (which is now starting to looks much better as of 8/19) and Atlantic hurricane activity (which is nonexistent) is key. But at this time odds continue stacking in favor of a global teleconnection now being established. If that's true, deepening of the ENSO cycle could begin in the next month or so, and perhaps rapidly once it starts.    

But for now we'll remain cautious. Overall the immediate outlook remains unchanged, but potentially trending towards something that would be considered warm by Sept 2014. At a minimum the ocean is well past recharge mode, with cold water from the 2010-2011 La Nina dispersed and temperatures on the rise. Regardless of the WWB's etc, we are still in a neutral ENSO atmospheric pattern at this time with neither any form of El Nino in.cgiay. But given all current signs, atmospheric transition appears to be underway, and hopefully intensifying into Fall.  Still this is a far better.cgiace than previous years (2010-2011, 2011-2012 and 2012-2013) under the direct influence of La Nina. And it seems apparent we've recovered from the 2009-2010 El Nino. We've turned the corner, but we'll remain cautious and not say to much yet, especially in light of what appears to be a decadal bias towards a cooler regime (since 1998).

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool and more details in the  El Nino Update Updated 12/4/13 

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no fetch of swell production of interest is forecast. The South Pacific is falling asleep. 

Details to follow...

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

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