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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: August 31, 2010 10:11 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
Swell Potential Rating = 1.2 - California & 1.1 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)
Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    
Issued for Week of Monday 8/30 thru Sun 9/5
Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

A Little More Windswell For CA
Minimal Southern Hemi Swell Underneath - Maybe Something Better Longterm

 

New Swell Classification Guidelines (Winter)

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead). Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft) Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft). Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs. Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
On Tuesday (8/31) North and Central California was getting locally generated short period north windswell at thigh to waist high and pretty warbled. Southern California was getting maybe 1 ft windswell up north and reasonably clean but foggy with little southern hemi swell occasionally pushing through down south to maybe waist high with textured if not warbled conditions. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean with summer sand clogging the reefs. The East Shore was getting thigh to waist high tradewind generated east windswell with moderately chopped conditions. The South Shore had some thigh high small new southern hemi sets coming through with clean conditions with modest trades in effect.  

The forecast for North and Central CA is for more local northwest local windswell on Wednesday at 3 ft (faces) and up to 4 ft on Thursday with minimal very south angled (172 degree) southern hemi swell underneath at 2.5 ft both Wednesday and Thursday. More local windswell is to hang on for Friday at 3 ft building Saturday to 4 ft and Sunday to 5 ft. Southern hemi swell to be 3 ft on Friday fading to 2.5 ft on Saturday again from near 170 degrees, then gone. Southern California is to see small southern hemi swell on Wednesday at thigh to waist high dropping to thigh high Thursday then rebuilding to waist high or a little more Friday before fading from thigh high Saturday (at best).  Swell angle to be very southerly (175 degrees). Maybe some knee to thigh high north windswell for exposed breaks on Sunday. The North Shore of Oahu is to see no rideable surf for the next 7 days.  The East Shore to see short period east windswell at knee high Wednesday then gone Thursday.Friday more knee high plus east windswell is expected dropping Saturday only to return on Sunday.  The South Shore is to perhaps see some knee to thigh high southern hemi swell on Wednesday fading Thursday and then nothing rideable into at least early next week.  

Up north no swell producing fetch is forecast over the next 7 days other than locally generated short period north windswell for North and Central CA holding well into the weekend (9/4) if not building for early next week. We're also watching a typhoon pushing towards Japan that has some potential to regenerate as it tracks northeast away from there. Down south the models suggest a small gale forming just east of New Zealand on Saturday (9/4) with seas to 36 ft  late, then quickly degenerating.  At least there's something on the models to stare at.  Still, it's to be small in total areal coverage.

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
On Tuesday (8/31) the North Pacific jetstream had it's usual more or less flat flow tracking over the 50N latitude with a little pocket of energy inland over southern Siberia and a strong 120 kt pocket tracking flat through the Northern Gulf of Alaska pushing into Vancouver Island. But if anything, the flow into the British Columbia was associated with a ridge (high pressure) rather than a trough (low pressure) not offering anything in terms of support for gale development at the oceans surface. Over the next 72 hours the trough in the east is to push inland while the energy over Siberia pushing into the West Pacific forming a bit of a trough almost reaching the dateline with winds to 120 kts, but not particularly strong looking overall. Maybe some support for low pressure forming there. In the east wind speeds are to be very weak with a tight ridge building over the dateline and another just over the US West Coast offering nothing but likely high pressure down at the oceans surface through Friday (9/3).  Beyond 72 hours the trough in the west is to weaken and make no eastward progress, stalling on the dateline while a big ridge builds in the East reaching north to Alaska while drifting east offering only high pressure at lower levels. No support for gale development forecast.  

At the surface on Tuesday (8/31) high pressure at 1032 mbs continued locked in over the Eastern Pacific centered 1000 nmiles north-northeast of Hawaii and gently ridging east almost to Northern California and west to the dateline with a second high at 1028 mbs off Kamchatka pretty much locking down the entire North Pacific. Weak low pressure was in the Northeastern Gulf of Alaska trying to nudge high pressure out of the way, but making zero progress. 15 kt north winds were flowing down the Northern CA coast and trades at the same speed were wafting over the Hawaiian Islands, but neither was producing windswell of much interest. Over the next 72 hours high pressure is to push a bit to the east setting up a weak pressure gradient over Cape Mendocino generating 20-25 kt north winds there Wed-Thurs (9/2) perhaps nudging the windswell up a bit for Central CA, then totally faltering by Friday. The high is to be to far north to have any effect on trades over Hawaii, and if anything trades are to drop below the 15 kt threshold, with east windswell starting to fade out.  Low pressure is to push off Kamchatka and set up over the Western Aleutians by Friday (9/3) generating 20 kt west winds over exposed waters of the Northwest Pacific, but that's to be of no use to anyone. Maybe it's a start.  

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropics
On Tuesday (8/31)
Typhoon 08w (Kompasu) was located  approximately 115 nmiles southeast of Kadena Japan, and was tracking northwestward at 11 knots. Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 95 knots gusting to 115 knots. It is expected to continue tracking northwest out of the greater Pacific and west of Japan, then recurving northeast tracking back into the Pacific over Northern Japan on Friday (9/3) and reorganizing as an extratropical low moving up into the Northwest Pacific on Sunday (9/5).  No real swell production likely even then, but it bears watching. .

No other tropical systems were occurring.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Tuesday (8/31) high pressure at 1030 mbs was trying to ridge into the coast of Central CA generating the usual pressure gradient and producing northwest winds at 15 kts over nearshore waters resulting in light chop and warble. This gradient is to get more pronounced on Wednesday resulting in 25 kt north winds over outer waters of Central and North CA but a light eddy flow is expected nearshore. Warbled conditions at worst. The gradient itself is to fade on Friday with this same scenario continuing nearshore into Saturday AM, while a new gradient builds over Cape Mendocino with north winds building into nearshore waters Saturday afternoon with chop the likely result over all of North and Central CA. The gradient is to hug the coast through Tuesday (9/7) resulting in poor conditions through that time.  But Southern CA is to remain mostly protected from these conditions through the period.    

 

South Pacific

Overview
On Tuesday (8/31) the jetstream remained heavily split with the core of the split locked in just southeast of New Zealand. This continued displacing the southern branch of the jet to the south over the Ross Ice Shelf which was at it's winter maximum (north reaching) with the storm track following an ice bound route there  eliminating odds for well producing gale development. The jet gently lifted northeast over the extreme Southeast Pacific but was still mostly tracking over ice bound waters, before heading hard south into interior Antarctica offering no odds for swell producing gale development. Over the next 72 hours the same basic pattern is to hold with the trough in the east fading.  But a weakening in the ridge is forecast pushing under New Zealand Friday (9/3) with an almost-trough developing just east of there later in the day. Some of this trough is to even be over ice free waters too. Beyond 72 hours the trough is to hold east of New Zealand with up to 150 kt southwest winds pushing into the trough  offering decent odds to support gale development at the oceans surface Sat-Sun (9/5), then weakening.  Possible gale in this trough down at the oceans surface. But a new ridge is to be building in behind that pushing the jet again well to the south for the days beyond shutting off any hope to support gale development then. 

At the oceans surface high pressure at 1024 mbs was locked southeast of New Zealand with the effects of high pressure in the upper atmosphere continuing to be evident over the majority of the South Pacific. No swell producing fetch of 3-+ kts was indicated. Over the next 72 hrs the same basic pattern is to hold with no fetch  forecast.

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hrs an extra tropical low pressure system (the remnants of Typhoon Kompasu) is to push off the Southern Kuril Islands and jump start the low pressure pool in the West Pacific by late Saturday (9/4) generating a  980 mb closed isobar gale with 35 kt winds wrapping around it's core for maybe 24 hours, then lifting slowly northeast and north of the Aleutians mid Monday (9/6) as winds drop below 30 kts. No swell to result, but it looks kinda nice. And more low pressure is to be tracking up Japan and the Kurils bound for the same general area.  Maybe a little mini-cycle might take hold, with much thanks to the building Active Phase of the MJO. A Fall pattern might try to get some legs. 


MJO/ENSO Update (
reference):   As of Tuesday (8/31) the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) continued rock solid in the positive range. The daily SOI was holding at 23.25 and has been that way in excess of 43 days. The 30 day average was down a bit to 17.09 with the 90 day average holding at 12.47.  The Inactive Phase of the MJO appeared to be in full control.  

Wind anomalies as of Saturday (8/28) (latest data from BOM) at the 850 mb level (approx 5000 ft up) as defined by models indicated the Inactive Phase was fast fading over the East Pacific with easterly anomalies extending over a thin area from south of Hawaii into Central America while the Active Phase was peaked out over the Philippines,  with it's flow starting in the Indian Ocean (westerly anomalies) extending half way to the dateline. This pattern is to continue with easterly anomalies fading over the East Pacific into 9/2 while westerly anomalies build in the West Pacific reaching almost to the dateline a the same time, then fading slowly  into 9/12, with a neutral pattern in control after that. The Inactive Phase pushing into the Atlantic is likely helping the burst of hurricanes there. And with the Active Phase getting a toe hold in the Pacific might help the onset of a Fall weather pattern (with luck).

We believe the remnants of El Nino are just about gone from the upper atmosphere. The expectation is that we'll see a building moderate to moderate plus strength La Nina Pattern (where the Inactive Phase takes control) for the remained of 2010 extending well into 2011 and likely to early 2012. In short, the next year and half is going to be tough for surfers on west facing shores in the Eastern Pacific and Eastern Atlantic, though west facing shores of the West Pacific and Atlantic might do well from the Inactive Phase's dominance.     

Sea Surface Temp anomaly data (8/26) indicates that cooler than normal waters continue to expanded their grip on the equator covering solidly from South America west to the dateline and beyond are in fact getting cooler and covering a larger area over time, extending the whole way to almost New Guinea.  the coldest waters extended from a point south of Hawaii to just west of the dateline, a clear signal of strong easterly winds there and solid upwelling. Feeder bands of cooler than normal water continued building off the US West Coast and South America reaching to the dateline, only serving to reinforce the existing pattern, suggesting stronger than normal high pressure has built in both hemispheres and upwelling is in full effect. Good for sea life and the food chain, bad for storm production. Looks like a classic La Nina setup. This is a turn for the worse and only seems to be getting stronger. At the same time a massive buildup of warmer than normal waters continues in the Atlantic almost bleeding into the far Eastern Pacific, of concern to hurricane forecasters there. We'll see if upper level winds support development of hurricane activity or whether residual upper level shear from El Nino will chop the tops of developing systems. Suspect shear will be gone by the heart of hurricane season in the Atlantic.

Below the surface on the equator no Kevin Wave activity was present and if anything colder than normal water was building strong over the dateline and pushing east (sort of like a cold Kelvin Wave). This pocket was -5 degs below normal (getting colder). Not good. 

Over the entire Equatorial Pacific trades were blowing all the way to the Philippines and beyond, with easterly anomalies now in control of the entire Western Pacific, though normal conditions in the East. But the Pacific current that runs along the equator turned abruptly from flowing to towards South America to flowing towards the west in mid-March (2010), right as the SOI started it's impressive drive into positive territory and the storm machine abruptly shut down. And it has not wavered since.  This suggests trade wind anomalies might be a byproduct of the Pacific equatorial current change and not the other way around.  And if anything, the change in the current might actually foretell a coming change in the trades, and then with the advent of the trade wind change, it only serves to reinforce the current in a self amplifying loop, until such time as the cycle runs it's course and the self feeding system collapses over a multiyear period. At that time the current then switches direction, and a whole new self-enforcing cycle stars anew. Something to consider (regarding the formation and El Nino/La Nina).     

El Nino is effectively gone and slowly losing it's grip on the global upper atmospheric weather pattern. Still some lingering impact might continue through the Summer of 2010, but likely not enhancing the  storm track in the South Pacific any longer. A slow transition to a normal if not cooler than normal conditions (La Nina) is expected through Nov 2010, and the signs continue to point to a La Nina pattern for the long term future. 

See more details in the   El Nino update.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours high pressure is to ease to the east opening up a window directly south of New Zealand area late Thursday (9/2) with low pressure developing in the area by Friday AM. A small area of 45-50 kt west-southwest winds are to develop at 54S 165E pushing to 55 kt later in the day and lifting northeast with a small area of 50 kt southwest winds still holding Saturday AM at 50S 175W.  The models suggest seas building to 36 ft Saturday evening at 46S 170W as the fetch itself dies. If all this happens some degree of small swell could result, best for Tahiti and Hawaii but amazingly not to badly shadowed by Tahiti (still west of the core of the shadow) for the US West Coast. Certainly something to monitor. The models also suggest another storm forming in Monday night/Tuesday AM (9/7) in the same general vicinity (52S 160W) with winds building to 55 kts.  Fetch area is to be small, but at this point we'll take anything. So if one is to believe the models, perhaps a little relief is in sight. 

Details to follow...

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

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Local Interest

Interview with Stormsurf: Coastviews Magazine has written up a very nice article on Stormsurf in their latest edition. You can read it here: http://coastviewsmag.com/master-forecaster-mark-sponsler-and-stormsurf

Stormsurf Hi-Res Coastal Precipitation Models Upgraded Though a bit late in the season, on 3/20 we implemented the same basic technology used in our new snow/ski models into the coastal hi-res precipitation models. So now you can not only determined whether rain is forecast for your area, but also snow. And not just light, medium or heavy snow like most sites, but the exact snowfall amount (in inches) for each 3 hr frame of the animation. Here's a sample, but now this approach is used in all our precipitation models. http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=nwcoast_precip

Stormsurf Precip Models Upgraded! On 2/20 we upgraded some of the broader precipitation models driven by the hi-def GFS model to include snow fall. The algorithm used is similar to the recently released snow models for the Southwest US in that the areas where snow is expected are identified and the exact amount of snow forecast over a 3 hr window is explicitly color coded. For East and West Coast US interests the following links provide good examples:
West Coast: http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=nepac_precip
East Coast: http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=watla_precip

Stormsurf Weather Models have all been upgraded! Over the New Years break we installed all new and upgraded weather models. Also new are experimental snow models for the Southwest US. Take a look here: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_wx.html

Read about Eric Nelson and Curt Myers, the makers of Ride-On and other Big Wave Surf Movies here: http://coastviewsmag.com/powerlines-productions-filming-the-art-of-big-wave-surfing

Ride On! Powerlines new big wave epic is now available on DVD. Get the entire big wave story of the 2008-2009 season here: http://www.mavz.com/

Click here to learn more about Casa Noble Tequila! Casa Noble Tequila If you are looking for an exquisite experience in fine tequila tasting, one we highly recommend, try Case Noble. Consistently rated the best tequila when compared to any other. Available at BevMo (in California). Read more here: http://www.casanoble.com/

Interview With Stormsurf:  The crew at SurfScience.com worked with Stormsurf on a feature about why surfers should be able to read wave charts themselves. They are firm believers that a little learning can go a long way to help your surfing.  This is a great article to help convince your friends that they can benefit from being able to read the data themsleves rather than just relying on the forecasts of others.  See the full thing here:  Create Your Own Surf Forecast with Stormsurf

Wave Model Upgrade Status Report: At this point we believe the installation of the new wave models is complete, with no problems being reported, the server stabilizing and the much requested return of the old style hemispheric Surf Height models now operational (again) and running side-by-side along the new ones. We thank you for your patience and input as we went though this process.  Your feedback helps guide our efforts and ultimately results in a better product for everyone.  Now we're off to start providing better menus to some wave model products most of you probably haven't uncovered yet (site specific graph and text forecasts), updateing the wave model FAQs and then upgrading the Weather Models.  

New Wave Model Facts: Click HERE to read more about the new wave models. Important info.

Story About Stormsurf: The folks at SurfPulse (and specifically author Mike Wallace) have written up a really nice article about Stormsurf, complete with some good pics. Learn about how we came to be and a little of where we are going. Check it out here: http://www.surfpulse.com/2009/01/visceral-surf-forecasting-with-mark-sponsler/

Stormsurf Video: Just for fun - here's a clip about Stormsurf that ran on Bay Area TV a while back. Thought you might enjoy it: http://vimeo.com/2319455

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Need Chiropractic Help? Visit our friends at Darrow Chiropractic. Not only will Dr. Darrow fix you up, he might give you some big wave surfing tips too! See more here: http://www.darrowchiropractic.com/

Stormsurf Google Gadget - Want Stormsurf content on your Google Homepage? It's simple and free. If you have Google set as your default Internet Explorer Homepage, just click the link below and a buoy forecast will be added to your Google homepage. Defaults to Half Moon Bay CA. If you want to select a different location, just click on the word 'edit', and a list of alternate available locations appears. Pick the one of your choice. Content updates 4 times daily. A great way to see what waves are coming your way!
http://www.google.com/ig/add?moduleurl=http://www.stormsurf.com/gadget/stormsurf .xml

Free Stormsurf Stickers - Get your free stickers! - More details Here

Read all the latest news and happenings on our News Page here

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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