On Tuesday (8/7) Northern CA surf was again waist high and pure junk. South facing breaks in Santa Cruz were flat. Central California surf (Morro Bay) was flat. Surf in Southern CA from Santa Barbara to just north of LA was flat. The LA Area southward to Orange County was flat. Southward from Orange County into San Diego best breaks were maybe thigh high on the sets. The North Shore of Oahu was flat. The South Shore had some occasional waist high waves. The East Shore report was not available.
North/Central California was getting bare minimal short period northwest windswell. Southern California was essentially flat with no wrap around windswell coming in. Minimal background southern hemi swell was the only energy and limited to San Diego and south Orange County. Hawaii was flat on the North Shore with tradewind generated windswell on the East Shore. The South Shore was getting bare minimal background southern hemi energy mixed with the tradewind swell. The North Pacific was quiet as a mouse with no swell producing systems occurring. Easterly tradewind swell was present focused on Hawaii. The models suggest some increase in windswell for CA by late week into the early weekend as high pressure moves back to the east some, but the resulting surf to still be very small. But none of this is to reach into Southern CA. No gale activity of interest has occurred in the Southern Hemi recently and none is forecast until maybe late this weekend into early next week, when a gale is forecast to maybe slide under New Zealand possibly setting up more small to moderate swell pushing towards Hawaii, but too small to have any real impact for California except for possibly the best spots in Southern CA. But even at that it's just a forecast, and nearly a week off at that, with no swell hitting Hawaii or California for at least a week after that. So looks like it's time to hunker down and find some other source of excitement. Or better yet, get on a plane and head to the Indian Ocean. They've been getting bombed lately, leaving no energy left to push under Australia and into our swell window. When one ocean feasts, another starves. Guess it's our turn pay. See details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
Tuesdays jetstream charts (8/7) for the North Pacific indicated no energy of interest with a weak flow generally landlocked over the Aleutian Islands. Over the next 72 hours things to remain pretty weak, though a small steep trough is to dip south of the Aleutians near the dateline on Friday (8/10), but nothing is expected to result from it at the oceans surface. Beyond 72 hours a new backdoor trough is to push out into the Gulf from Canada Saturday (8/11) sinking south to a point off the Pacific Northwest and holding there through Tuesday (8/14). Perhaps this will be enough to provide very limited support for surface level low pressure development through the period.
At the surface today high pressure at 1032 mbs was centered 1500 nmiles north of Hawaii in the Gulf of Alaska, but too far away from either California or Hawaii to have any effect there from a wind producing (and windswell inducing) perspective. Weak high pressure covered the rest of the North Pacific with a calm pattern in effect. Over the next 72 hrs through Friday (8/10) the Gulf high is to push slightly east, enough to set up a faint bit of northerly winds along the Northern California coast Thursday in the 20-25 kt range focused on Cape Mendocino, maybe enough for bare minimal windswell generation down into Central CA. Windswell in Hawaii to steadily decline though with no gradient and therefore tradewind's of interest suggested. Theoretically a weak tropical system is to form mid-way between the Mexican mainland and Hawaii tracking west, but odds low. So basically a calm pattern to remain the norm.
On Tuesday (8/7) minimal Typhoon Pabuk was located over the southern tip of Taiwan with sustained winds 65 kts and tracking due west. It is expected to move onshore over mainland China within 24 hours at tropical storm strength. No swell generation potential for our forecast area suggested.
Low pressure associated with a possible tropical storm is being tracked at a position well southwest of the island of Clarion (south of Baja). This is consistent with the models indications of a tropical system off mainland Mexico Tuesday (8/6) tracking west while building. This provides hope for Hawaii in the days ahead.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
California Offshore Forecast
On Tuesday (8/7) high pressure at 1032 mbs was 1500 nmiles west-northwest of Northern California, having no impact locally and resulting in a rather calm sea state and a light onshore flow other than 15 kt northwest winds off Pt Conception. The high to start pushing a little more east on Wednesday with northerly winds increasing to the 15 kts range over the length of the state including Southern Ca late in the day. Potential for chop production to increase. By Thursday a consolidated area of 20-25 kts fetch to develop out of this off Cape Mendocino improving odds for small windswell, though local winds nearshore to be backing off. More of the same on Friday, though nearshore winds to increase slightly from Santa Cruz northward late, holding into early Saturday (8/11). None of this to reach further south than Pt Conception. The high to back off from North CA Sunday and beyond with winds settling down but it's to continue ridging into the Pt Conception area early next week with 20-25 kts north winds forecast there and on down over the Channel Islands.
Tuesdays jetstream charts (8/7) for the South Pacific indicated no significant change from days past with namely a split flow in control, with most energy in the northern branch (up to 140 kts) tracking over Northern New Zealand pushing in an amplified wave pattern steadily southeast and almost merging with the southern branch of the jet just over extreme southern Chile. The southern branch was flowing dead flat on the 60th latitude line over the northern edge of Ross Ice Shelf and was totally ice-locked. There was no indication of any support for gale production. Over the next 72 hours through Friday (8/10) no change is forecast and if anything the southern branch is to push further south over ice and the northern branch is to drop south with it. Beyond 72 hours starting Saturday (8/11) the first hints of a trough are to start developing under New Zealand pushing north and east, enough to clear the northern edge of the Ross Ice Shelf. This trough to track east into Tuesday (8/14) before starting to be swept away by a ridge building in behind it overtaking the trough and shutting it down. Minimal hope for a little support for surface level low pressure development at the ocean surface.
At the surface today high pressure at 1032 mbs was sitting off Chile driving the storm track well to the south and east there and putting a damper on things. No activity of interest was occurring in the Southwest Pacific. Over the next 72 hours no real change is forecast, though a broad low pressure system is forecast to start pushing from under Australia east towards the region under New Zealand. This is one a many major storms that have been tracking through the Indian Ocean, only to fade out after expelling their wrath and energy on the ocean in this area of the planet.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours the high pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska to again retrograde, pushing west and away from California with winds along the north coast fading by late Saturday (8/11) and windswell it generates fading with it. The supposed tropical system pushing towards Hawaii is to be interacting with this high and bearing down on the Big Islands of Hawaii by late Saturday, with windswell and brisk trades winds impacting there and sweeping over the rest of the Islands late Sunday (8/12) on into the middle of the following week. Otherwise no macro-level weather systems are forecast though.
Beyond 72 hours the models indicate that high pressure at 1012 mbs is to try to continue controlling the Southwest Pacific, but broad low pressure is to get the upper hand and seep east under New Zealand by Saturday (8/11) setting up a small area of 35 kt southwest winds late aimed well at Hawaii. Those winds to build to the 40 ft range Sunday with seas up to near 30 ft late, then fading fast on Monday (8/13). Possible small 16-17 sec period swell to be pushing towards primarily Hawaii is this comes to pass. Another weaker fetch to possibly follow. But in all the pattern is to be decidedly still unfavorable in the South Pacific, with all the real energy isolated to the Southeastern Atlantic feeding into the Indian Ocean.
Details to follow...
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Bluewater Gold Rush: The first and only chronicle of the California sea urchin dive fishery. Diving, surfing, comedy, and tragedy on and under the waves of California. "A quintessential tale of California ... dramas of adventure and loss on and under the sea" Check it out here: http://www.bluewatergoldrush.com
Waveriders Gallery: Check out this collection of high quality artwork all related to waves and the ocean. Surf Paintings, Photography, Posters, Books, Boards and exhibits all produced by a variety of top artists provide a beautiful selection of pieces to chose from. Take and look and see some of the stunning work available from these artists. http://www.waveridersgallery.net/
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Jason-1 Satellite Data On-line and Improved!: Our Jason-1 satellite data was upgraded yet again Wednesday PM (6/6) and is now operating better than ever. We've added a feature that averages the data every 15 measurements on the local views and every 50 measurements on the global view (1 measurement every 3 nautical miles) and overlays the results onto the wave model chart. Both the single highest measurement on the chart and the highest 15 measurement average are posted at the bottom of each chart. This seems to work real well and compensates for the very spiky nature of the raw data coming off the satellite. So we now have an effective way to verify the accuracy (or lack of) the wave model output. See the data here: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_alt.html
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table