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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Sunday, July 27, 2014 8:58 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
Swell Potential Rating = 1.5 - California & 1.7 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)
Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 7/28 thru Sun 8/3

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Local Windswell for HI and CA
Models Hint at a Small Gale Developing in the Southern Hemi

 

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

 

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday
(7/27) in North and Central CA local north windswell was producing surf in the waist to chest high range and reasonably clean even late. Down in Santa Cruz surf was effectively flat. In Southern California up north no rideable swell of interest was hitting. Conditions were lightly textured late. Down south background southern hemi swell was producing waves in the waist to occasionally chest high range and heavily textured later. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean early. The South Shore was near flat with occasional thigh high plus sets sneaking in and clean. Trade wind generated east windswell was producing waves at knee high and chopped at exposed breaks on the East Shore.    

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
No swell producing fetch is occurring or forecast for the North Pacific other than local windswell and limited to North and Central CA and small at that. The tropics were active with a depression (formally Genevieve) southeast of Hawaii and a hurricane (Hernan) south of Cabo San Lucas. And another system was trying to organize east of the Philippines. In the southern hemisphere a very limited fetch tracked under New Zealand on Wed (7/23) producing 28 ft seas, then faded. Small swell possible for Tahiti and Hawaii. A second equally weak system was developing Sun (7/27) with a tiny area of 28 ft seas east of Northern New Zealand. Maybe another tiny pulse of swell to result. Longer term a solid storm is to track east across the southern Tasman Sea with 46 ft seas on Wed (7/30) but fade before entering the Pacific. But it's remnants might redevelop in the Central Pacific on Sun (8/3) if one is to believe the models. But that's a reach.

Details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview 
Surface Analysis  - On Sunday (7/27) trades were starting to build in the 15 kt range east of the Islands in association with 3 tropical low pressure systems south and southeast of Hawaii and high pressure north of there offering minimal support for generation of easterly windswell along east facing shores there. Modest high pressure at 1024 mbs was just east of Central CA ridging into the Pacific Northwest generating the usual summer time pressure gradient over North California producing north winds to barely 25 kts resulting in minimal north local short period windswell for exposed breaks in Central CA while a weak eddy flow was in control nearshore.

Over the next 72 hours more of the same is forecast relative to the US West Coast with north winds 20 kts over North CA and slowly decaying in coverage with minimal short period north windswell continuing to be produced and with a nearshore eddy in effect.

Easterly trades relative to Hawaii to build in coverage on Mon (7/28) east of the Islands at 15 kts as a new tropical system supposedly develops south of there tracking west. And the remnants of Genevieve to remain a depression status tracking east reaching a point 450 nmiles southeast of the Big Island continuing to support windswell production for east facing shores. So two tropical systems are to be in play in close proximity to Hawaii.

 

  North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropics
Tropical Depression Genevieve was positioned 1100 nmiles east-southeast of the Big Island of hawaii tracking east with winds 30 kts. This motion is to continue into Fri (8/1) with a slight jog to the north with no strengthening forecast putting the depression 400 nmiles south-southeast of Hilo per the official track. The GFS model has this system building and moving to within 120 nmiles south of Hawaii on Sat (8/2). Something to monitor.

The GFS model also has a new tropical depression developing 300 nmiles south of the Big Island on Mon (7/28) tracking west.

Hurricane Hernan developed 350 nmiles south of Cabo San Lucas Mexico on Sun (7/27) with winds 65 kts tracking west-northwest with seas 18 ft. and not quite in the swell window relative to Dana Point yet. But by 0Z Mon (7/28) this system is to be in the Dana Point swell window at 159 degrees with winds still 65 kts 850 nmiles away. A slow decay is forecast with winds fading after that and a gradual turn to the west is forecast. Low odds of some 11 sec period energy to result starting at sunset on Tues (7/29) relative to Dana Point. .

A broad area of tropical low pressure was circulating 800 east of the Northern Philippines generating southerly winds at 30 kts. Development seems likely. And yet another system to develop on Monday east of this one.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Sunday AM (7/27) weak high pressure was positioned off Central and North CA producing a modest version of the usual summer time pressure gradient and north winds at 20 kts over a small area off Cape Mendocino, with an eddy flow nearshore to the Central and South CA coast. By Monday the gradient is to fade some but still at 20 kts and fading more Tuesday. But by Tuesday north winds are to be slowly be rebuilding at 20 kts over Cape Mendocino pushing 25 kts on Friday with the nearshore eddy flow barely hanging on. The gradient is to expand some over the weekend (8/30 with north winds 20 kts over a broad area over Cape Mendocino with the eddy flow (south winds) getting a better grasp of nearshore waters for Central CA.

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream - On Sunday (7/27) the southern branch of the jet was displaced south down at 75S running over Antarctic Ice and offering no support for support for gale development in lower levels of the atmosphere. But a bit of a trough was trying to buck the trend southeast of New Zealand with the jet lifting northeast but only blowing at 90-100 kts. No real support for any development suggested, especially with the semi-trough forecast to dissipate in the next 24 hours. Over the next 72 hours the entire southern branch is to fall even further south and then dissipate. A new ridge is to build southeast of New Zealand on Mon-Tues (7/29) but only weakly so. Beyond 72 hours a more energetic pattern is to develop over the Tasman Sea with 150 kt winds tracking southeast then pushing southeast of southern New Zealand into Fri-Sat (8/2) likely shutting down gale production there. but there's also some suggestions that a bit of a trough is to develop south of New Zealand starting late Fri (8/1) pushing east into the weekend. Winds are to be light. Still, it's a hint of a step in the right direction.

Surface Analysis  -  On Sunday (7/27) weak and small background swell from a tiny gale under New Zealand last week was pushing towards Hawaii and the US West Coast (see Tiny New Zealand Gale below). A new gale developed Sun AM (7/27) with a tiny area of 40 kt southwest winds and seas building to 26 ft over a infinitesimal area at 40S 163W. 40 kt south winds to hold in t the evening with 26 ft seas holding at 39S 159W. On Mon AM (7/28) 35-40 kt south winds to ease east with 26-28 ft seas at 40S 153W. More of the same is forecast in the evening with 26-28 ft seas at 40S 148W. More of the same is forecast on Tues (7/29) with 40 kt winds building in coverage with finally a respectable coverage of 27 ft seas at 38S 143W (196 degs NCal, 201 degs SCal and unshadowed). In the evening winds to hold with seas building to 26-28 ft at 37S 135W (197degs SCal, 192 degs NCal and unshadowed). This system is to fade thereafter. This is one worth monitoring.

The models also suggest some sort of a gale developing in the South Tasman Sea on Tues-Wed (7/30) with potentially 42 ft seas aimed somewhat up the great circle tracks to Fiji. But this seems like a reach for the models.

 

Tiny New Zealand Gale
On Tues PM (7/22) a small area of 40 kt west winds built under New Zealand resulting in seas of 32 ft over a tiny area at 59S 158E (215 degs NCal and SCal and unshadowed by Tahiti, completely shadowed by New Zealand relative to Hawaii). Winds barely held on at 40 kts Wed AM (7/23) while lifting northeast with seas 28 ft at 53S 167E (barely in the 210 degree path to Hawaii and 218 degs NCal/220 degs Scal and unshadowed). This system was gone by evening.

Hawaii: Tiny swell to arrive on Thurs (7/31) with swell building to 1.3 ft @ 15-16 sec late (2 ft). Swell continues on Fri (8/1) at 2 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Residuals into Sat (8/2) at 2 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 195-201 degrees  

California: Expect swell arrival on Sun (8/3) with swell 1.2 ft @ 16 secs (2 ft). Swell Direction: 215-220

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours high pressure is to rebuild some off North CA on Thurs (8/1) adding some fuel to the typical pressure gradient there with winds building to 25 kts late there with windswell on the upswing some and holding into Friday then fading some over the weekend but increasing in coverage at the same time. Windswell to rebuild slightly and hold into next weekend with an eddy flow in effect for South and Central CA.

Relative to Hawaii, high pressure north of the state is to continue holding while a string of weak tropical low track west positioned south of the Hawaiian Islands resulting in steady trades in the 15 kt range resulting in more easterly windswell for exposed breaks. If the models are correct, it will be nice to see some activity south of Hawaii, a classic sign of some flavor of El Nino.

MJO/ENSO Update
Note: The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equatorial Pacific it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slack if not an outright reversal of trade winds and enhanced precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

As of Sunday (7/27) the daily Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was down to -28.69. The 30 day average was down some to -5.64 and the 90 day average was down some at -0.36. The near term trend based on the 30 day average was indicative of a weak Active Phase of the MJO. The longer term pattern was indicative of a neutral Phase of the MJO. The recent falling SOI numbers are a result of low pressure near Tahiti. Looking at the models high pressure is forecast to build in southwest of Tahiti for the balance of the coming week, meaning rising SOI numbers.

Current equatorial surface wind analysis indicated solid westerly winds in control of the Maritime Continent associated with tropical development there moderating while reaching to the dateline but holding to a point south of Hawaii. Weak easterly anomalies were east of there turning neutral over the Galapagos and Ecuador. A week from now (8/4) modest easterly anomalies are forecast over the entire equatorial Maritime Continent then turning neutral over the dateline and holding to a point south of Hawaii.  Neutral anomalies are projected east of there to the Galapagos. The GFS model indicates collapsed trades over the balance of the Kelvin Wave Generation Area on Sun (7/27). Trades are to try and make a comeback on the east and west flanks of the area Wed-Fri (8/1) only to collapse in the east by the weekend but building in the western sector of this area. The reality is that there has hardly been a extended period of trades so far this year, and were over 190 days into the year.  Previously an Easterly Wind event occurred in the West Pacific 6/13-6/19 building to the moderate plus category but did not appear to have turned off the warm water flow to the east (more below), though it was close. And this is really the only easterly winds event of the year. The TOA array indicated westerly anomalies developed 6/25 west of the dateline (at the surface - the ground truth) and held through 7/6 in the moderate range, then turned neutral on 7/7 but were trending light westerly on 7/11 through 7/20, building into a legitimate Westerly WInd Burst on 7/28. If one was counting on a Super El Nino, that does not appear to be in the cards. But compared to La Nina, where enhanced trades (20+ kts) would be blowing non-stop, we're in great shape.

See our new Kelvin Wave Generation Area monitoring model here.

Previously a series of WWBs occurred 1/8-4/20 creating a large Kelvin Wave that is now impacting Ecuador, the Galapagos and Peru. And weak westerly anomalies continued through the month of May. This was very similar situation that led up to the big El Nino's of '82/32 and '97/98. But in those instances the WWBs and Kelvin Wave generation progressed non-stop through the Summer and Fall months. 

An article presenting a Comparison between the genesis of the 1997 El Nino and this 2014 WWB event has been posted here.
A second analysis from 5/28 is posted here.  

The longer range Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) models (dynamic and statistical) run on 7/26 are generally in sync. They both suggest a weak Active MJO signal is in effect in the West Pacific reaching to the dateline. 5 days out it is to nearly hold then to fade 8 days out and gone 12-15 day out. The dynamic model perhaps suggests a return to a weak active Phase 15 days out while the statistic model suggests a weak Inactive Phase. The ultra long range upper level model indicates a weak Active Phase is currently over the Pacific and tracking slowly east through 8/16. A modest Inactive Phase is forecast to follow pushing over the West Pacific starting 8/11 reaching east into South America by Sept 5. A very weak MJO pattern biased Active is what one would expect if an El Nino were to develop. If a neutral pattern actually prevails in July (as it looks like it will), it provides hope that the warming water in the equatorial East Pacific is starting to have some impact on the atmosphere above. As said before, we're at the point where weak westerly anomalies should be standard in the West Pacific if a moderate El Nino where developing, attributable to warming waters temps over the width of the equatorial Pacific. Based on active sensors from the TOA wind data from the Kelvin Wave generation area, which we consider to be the best objective evidence, that appears to be the case. The upper level model tends to be a leading indicator, with surface level anomalies lagging behind 1 week or more.    

Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean.  As of the most recent low res imagery (7/24), a warm water regime remains in control from Ecuador west over the Galapagos and drifting west from there with warm anomalies extending only to 120W. West of there cool anomalies are in control, looking very much like a small La Nina setting up between the dateline and a point south of California, covering the entire Nino 3.4 area. Temps rebuild to +0.5 degs C over the dateline, likely the start of a new Kelvin Wave. Hi-res SST data depicts the extent of +2.25-4.0 deg anomalies embedded in the Galapagos triangle again stating to fail, covering less area. And the cool pool along the immediate Peruvian coast is rebuilding, extending up into Ecuador now too. The pocket of +4.0 deg anomalies is holding off Central Peru. A previous decline in temps in the Nino -1 & 2 regions have redeveloped. The bulk of the massive Kelvin Wave generated by Westerly Wind Bursts in Jan-April has erupted at the surface and is dispersing. Reinforcements are needed immediately. Water temps off Peru are the proverbial tail of the dog, while Westerly Wind Bursts are the nose. The issue remains getting more warm water into the pipe to eventually erupt near the Galapagos.

Elsewhere, the entire North Pacific Ocean is full of warmer than normal water as is the West Pacific (north and south). Signs of high pressure induced upwelling streaming southwest off California has dissipated completely. In fact, serious warm water is building along the California coast, the exact opposite of the trend of the past 3+ years. This is expected if El Nino was in play. This is significant in that is suggests high pressure induced north winds are less than normal off California for this time of year. Cool water remains present streaming off Southern Chile pushing west reaching up to the equator just south of Hawaii feeding the cool pool developing on the equator there. Overall the total amount of warmer than normal water in the North Pacific remains impressive, while the South Pacific appears cooler than normal. 

Subsurface Waters Temps on the equator are in decline in the east. Residual warm subsurface water from the previous Kelvin Wave faded dramatically over the past 5 days, from +3 degrees to barely +1 degree today. The core of warm water in the east is confined to a small area 50 meters down at 100W. Temps previously were up to +6 degs C above normal on 6/21. As best as can be identified the residuals of the Kelvin Wave are all but gone. Satellite data from 7/12-7/22 depicts no elevated surface water heights in the Galapagos region indicating the Kelvin Wave has dissipated. Subsurface models as of 7/14 depict the flow from the West Pacific to the east was still open, but with no significant warm water in it and the Kelvin Wave itself in steep decline. But, the pipe was not closed. A building pocket of +0.5-1.0 anomalies are theoretically in place under the dateline and building suggestive of a new Kelvin Wave trying to take shape. But even if it is real, at this point in time it's a bare minimal Kelvin Wave and would not even warm waters above what they already are in the Galapagos region. A far stronger Kelvin wave is required. And even at that it would take 2-3 months before it would arrive at the Galapagos (~Sept 30). 

The Pacific Equatorial Surface Counter-Current (from 2N to 2S from the Philippines to the Galapagos) as of 7/12 continued tracking actually and anomalously east to west from the Galapagos to the dateline (through the heart of the Nino 3.4 region), the exact opposite direction it should be to build warm waters in the East Pacific. But it appears the actual current and anomalies are tracking less strong and over a smaller area east to west than data from 7/2, and 7/7 and late June. This is somewhat encouraging news. This west moving current started 6/17. In the far West Pacific the current continues flowing west to east, holding since 7/2, suggestive of a new Kelvin Wave taking shape, but flowing less strong than a week ago.  The assumption is the change in direction in the current was attributable to development of easterly winds in the same area in mid-June, that have not been reversed due to lack of any real Westerly Wind Burst.  

Projections from the monthly CFSv2 model run 7/27 suggest water temps building to +1.0 deg C by early Oct peaking at + 1.4 deg C (down from the +1.55 deg C predicted in early July and +1.75 in May) holding into Jan 2015, then fading. Interestingly this model actually depicts warm waters dissipating in the Nino1+2 regions in August then redeveloping in the Nino 3.4 regions in Sept and gaining momentum and areal coverage while building back into Nino1.2 into Jan 2015 link.

Analysis: As of right now hopes for a strong El Nino in the Fall/Winter of 2014-2015 are in rapid decline. The massive Kelvin Wave that was generated by successive Westerly Wind Bursts in Jan-April has erupted in the Galapagos region and is now all but dispersed. The WWB ended on 5/1 with all warm water from it arriving 3 months later over the Galapagos, or by 8/1 (if not sooner) with neutral water temps taking over the Galapagos-Ecuador-Peru triangle at that time forward unless something develops to reinforce it. All evidence clearly suggest the warm pool is in rapid decline exactly as projected. A new weak WWB appears to be developing in the West Pacific (starting 6/28). But even if it were to continue, it would not reach the Galapagos till 9/28. So there's a 8 week 'hole' with no significant warm water to resupply the Ecuador triangle between 8/1 and 9/28. This will likely cause water temps to decease in the Nino1+2 regions, likely to near neutral. That means that even if another weak Kelvin Wave were to arrive in the Galapagos, it will have to warm water temps from dead neutral, rather than acting as reinforcements to already warmed waters. And if no additional Westerly Wind Bursts occur, warm water in all Nino region will dissipate completely.

Of course the other option is that the June easterly wind burst was the start of the 'upwelling' Phase of the Kelvin Wave. It's normal after a downwelling Kevin Wave impacts the Ecuador coast, that some period of upwelling (cooling) occurs. And for that to be true, the upwelling Phase of the Kelvin Wave cycle would be facilitated by a lack of westerly winds in the West Pacific (as is currently occurring). The long range (2 week) experimental hi-res GFS model continues to suggests a total collapse of trades from 7/27-8/10 but displaced north of the equator a few degrees, or limited to the northern half of the Kelvin Wave Generation Area. And it is also typical for trades to start falling into decline in the later half of summer.  Many an El Nino has not developed till the Fall.  And only a few (namely the '97 Super El Nino) developed and survived strong through the summer and over the span of an entire year. A more 'normal' development life cycle would favor the alternating 'downwelling/upwelling' Kelvin Wave cycle. Perhaps we've put too much focus on the '97 El Nino lifecycle model (attributed to the impressive WWB/Kelvin Wave that started this years event off, making it easy to think this years event would be a semi-duplicate of the '97 event), when instead we should have defaulted to considering a more normal lifecycle approach. 

And of yet more interest, the CFSv2 model depicts exactly this scenario playing out, with water temps in Nino1.2 fading in August then redeveloping in September, exactly filling the 'hole' scenario described above. If a sudden redevelopment of westerly winds occurred in late July into August, and a new Kelvin Wave were to develop starting early August, the 'upwelling Kelvin Wave' theory would have credence towards explaining the current pause in WWB activity. 

But without another WWB building on the dateline in late July/August to set up another downwelling Kelvin Wave event, then the developing El Nino pattern would dissipate. Monitoring surface wind anomalies in the West Pacific remains critical to determining the future of this years potential El Nino pattern.  And believing model projections weeks if not months in advance is a proven risky proposition. Therefore, we will continue to believe the above explanation is more of a last grasp than a certainty.        

And finally, there's the 'feedback loop' consideration.  We're currently waiting for a feedback loop to develop, reinforcing the warm water flow and buildup of warm water off Central America into the Fall. There are signs of that trying to happen now, mainly in the form of sporadic but not steadily negative SOI numbers, and tropical low pressure systems recurving northeast off Japan and significantly reduced high pressure induced north winds along the CA coast resulting in warming waters locally. The big arguments against a feedback loop being in place are the easterly wind event of the week of 6/17, the development of a west moving Pacific Counter Current, a dissipating Kelvin Wave and the degradation of peak water temps in the Ecuador triangle, and continued hints of trades building in the West Pacific. All these could be attributable to the macro level influence of the upwelling Phase of the Kelvin Wave cycle. Though the change in the counter current remains a bit beyond even that explanation.  Or just as easily it could be attributable to the fact that the East Pacific warm pool has NOT been in place long enough to develop a coupling with the atmosphere above it, so we end up with a bunch of mixed signals. Only once the ocean and atmosphere are coupled on a global level (that is the ocean has imparted enough heat into the atmosphere to start changing the global jetstream pattern) can one begin to have confidence that a feedback loop is developing and a fully matured El Nino can result. About 3 months of undisturbed heating is required for the atmosphere to start responding on a global level where the point of 'no return' could be achieved. The warm pool starting forming in earnest on 5/1, and so the atmosphere would not trip over the 'no-return' point till 8/1. From a skeptics perspective, that's another 3 weeks before anything is guaranteed, at exactly the same time the warm pool is projected to be dispersed. But if we're just in the 'Upwelling Phase' of the Kelvin Wave Cycle, and more west anomalies and a new Kelvin Wave are to be generated in the West Pacific, then all will remain on-track. The next 3 weeks are critical. 

Speculating some: What if it does falter completely, like the 2012 False Start El Nino?. What does this say about the atmosphere, especially considering the voracity of the Jan-March WWBs? Two false starts in a 2 year time span is not unheard of, but not common, especially considering the size of this years failure (if it were to fail). Perhaps the decadal bias towards La Nina is stronger than we suspected, leading credence to the theory of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Or better yet, maybe we'll just muddle along for the next 2+ years in a weak warm pattern, not quite tripping into El Nino territory, but not falling back into La Nina either, slowly feeding the jetstream all along. The environment is not binary organism, being either one way or the other at any point in time. Sometimes it progresses at it's own rate and defies categorization, often to our benefit. We'll just have to wait and see.         

Overall the immediate outlook remains unchanged, but potentially trending towards something that would be considered warm by Aug-Sept 2014. At a minimum the ocean is well past recharge mode, with cold water from the 2010-2011 La Nina dispersed and temperatures on the rise. Regardless of the WWBs etc, we are still in a neutral ENSO atmospheric pattern at this time with neither any form of El Nino or La Nina present or imminent. But given all current signs, atmospheric transition appears to be underway, and hopefully intensifying into Fall. There remains 1 month ahead where any number of hazards could derail this event. But this is a better place than previous years (2010-2011, 2011-2012 and 2012-2013) under the direct influence of La Nina. And it seems apparent we've recovered from the 2009-2010 El Nino. In a normal situation one would expect there to be at least one or two years of neutral temperatures ultimately converging in a stronger warmer pattern and possible El Nino 2-3 years out (2015 or 2016). Historically, this is the 'normal' pattern (a few years of false starts post La Nina before a legit El Nino forms). We've turned the corner, but we'll remain cautious and not say to much yet, especially in light of what appears to be a decadal bias towards a cooler regime (since 1998).

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool and more details in the  El Nino Update Updated 12/4/13 

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a small but strong storm is forecast developing south of New Zealand on Thurs (7/31) with up to 65 kt west winds and 50 ft seas forecast but all generally pushing southeast. Something to monitor but the travel direction of this system, even if it does form, is not to be conducing to radiation of swell into tahiti, Hawaii, and the US West Coast.

Details to follow...

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

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Local Interest

Updated - Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (7/27) - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=egbZX_cZkZI&feature=youtu.be&hd=1
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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