On Tuesday (7/26) Northern CA surf was chest to shoulder high. South facing breaks were waist to maybe chest high. Central California was up to waist high. Southern CA breaks from Santa Barbara to just north of LA were up to waist high. The LA area southward into Orange County was also waist high. Southward to San Diego waves were up to waist high. The North Shore of Oahu was flat. The South Shore was rarely waist high and fading. The East Shore was waist high.
No swell of interest is left in the Pacific as the Southern Hemi swell machine has broken down. Windswell is the best thing going in North CA and along Hawaii's eastern shores. No real change is forecast either as high pressure has started building in solid over the entire South Pacific. Best bet is for locally generated windswell, which fortunately is to continue coming from the northwest in North and Central CA and from the northeast on Hawaii's east coasts. See details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis.cgius forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
At the jetstream level on Tuesday (7/26) a weak trough remained north of Hawaii pushing into the northern Gulf of Alaska but was nowhere close to having any swell generation potential at the surface (animation here). Over the next 72 hours the Gulf trough is to persist with no significant strengthening or weakening suggested. A weak ridge is to build in the far Western Pacific. Again, no swell generation potential whatsoever.
At the surface today high pressure at 1032 mbs was 800 nmiles west of Cape Mendocino CA forming a weak version of the usual summertime pressure gradient off Cape Mendocino. North winds there were confirmed at about 25-30 kts generating some 15 ft seas aimed south parallel to the California coast and producing small to moderate windswell at select breaks. The high was also trailing back to the west north of Hawaii reaching the dateline then fading. The high was producing 20 kt east winds blowing across the Islands and generating small windswell there too. Tropical Storm Banyan was fading just east of the central coast of Japan with winds at 35 kts and seas 7 ft (animation here). Over the next 72 hours the high is to retrograde to the west and south, taking a position almost due north of Hawaii. The gradient off Cape Mendocino is to fade some with the requisite windswell dropping off. East winds are to continue over Hawaii if not strengthening some. This repositioning of the high is to allow weak low pressure to move into the Gulf of Alaska, but with no swell producing winds suggested initially. Tropical Storm Banyan is to fade to depression status and drift north over the Southern Kuril Islands, dissipating there.
More model data here
California Offshore Forecast
Tuesday mornings local charts (7/26) indicated that high pressure is to have a firm grip of the local weather scene through at least Thursday (7/28) with the Cape Mendocino gradient producing north winds there at 25-30 kts providing windswell potential. Then low pressure is to get a better grip on the Gulf of Alaska with a closed low at 996 mbs forecast in the Central Gulf starting late Friday (7/29). If one can believe it, 35 kt winds from this low are to develop aimed well at the California coast producing seas pushing towards the coast. This seems too far fetch to actually happen, but it is an interesting diversion just the same. A second low is to follow, but not as strong while high pressure starts pushing back east and the Cape Mendocino gradient is poised to fire up again near Tuesday of next week. So exact windswell details are a bit sketchy, dependent upon whether the low actually develops as forecast this weekend in the Gulf. Will monitor.
The 5 Day wind forecast is now included with the surf & swell overview in the QuikCAST's.
On Tuesday (7/26) the jetstream charts indicated a complete .cgiit jet was in affect with the northern branch containing all the energy with winds at 170 kts streaking due east south of Tahiti. No troughs of interest were present. The southern branch was sweeping east across the southern Ross Ice Shelf to a point well south of Chile. There was no support for surface level storm production (animation here). Over the next 72 hours the situation is to even get worse if that is possible with a new ridge pushing the southern branch well into Antarctica with the two branches separating more over the entire South Pacific, while high pressure builds in between.
At the surface high pressure at 1036 mbs was positioned in the center of the South Pacific totally dominating the storm corridor there. Whatever weak fetch was present was either pointing due south into Antarctica or west towards new Zealand. No swell generation potential for any US landmass was suggested (animation here). Over the next 72 hours no change in the pattern is forecast with a steady southward push indicated as any fetch that tracks under New Zealand gets put on a collision course with Antarctica. High pressure is to actually build to 1049 mbs early Wednesday (7/27) then begin to slowly moderate, but only down to 1028 mbs and giving up no ground.
More model data here
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Tuesdays upper level models (7/26) indicate that beyond 72 hours a weak trough is to persist in the northern Gulf of Alaska, actually strengthening just slightly late in the weekend into early next week with winds up to 100 kts (which is still nothing) as the ridge in the west breaks down allowing slightly more energy to push east. No suggestion of any surface storm production.
At the surface high pressure is to continue retreating west to the dateline by early next weak at 1024 mbs with a weak ridge continuing north of Hawaii to nearly the California coast providing the potential for weak short period windswell in both locations. Low pressure moving into the Gulf is modeled to develop deepening to 996 mbs with 35 kt winds building in it's southwest quadrant aimed at California and Oregon on Sunday (7/31), but this is highly unlikely given the time of year. Another weak low is to follow is into the Gulf. Will monitor.
Tuesdays upper level models (7/26) indicated that beyond 72 hours the mid-Pacific .cgiit jetstream pattern is to hold through early next week. There is a suggestion of a cutoff low developing northeast of New Zealand tracking east on Monday (8/1), but being cutoff means there will be no fuel to support it's development, so not much if any swell producing winds appears likely.
At the surface high pressure at 1024 mbs is to remain in control of the core of the South Pacific but focused more to the Southwest Pacific. this is to provide some fleeting space in the far east of Chile for some development and again northeast of New Zealand. Lows are forecast to develop there Tuesday of next week, but it's really to early to expect anything. At least this provides a glimmer of hope.
Details to follow...
Tutorial on the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) Presented by Dr. Roland Madden: If you're interested in El Nino and the MJO, have a basic understanding of El Nino, and you have broadband connection, audio and Macromedia Flash installed, then the following presentation is a must see. Dr Madden present a great overview of how the MJO works. And there's nothing like hearing it straight from the founders mouth. Link here: http://meted.ucar.edu/climate/mjo/mjonav0.htm
Stormsurf Weather Models Updated Again: Yes, we've been at it again this weekend getting another batch of weather models running. Global coverage is now provided for jetstream forecasts and surface pressure and winds. Zoomed in data is also available for such locations as the Mentawai Islands to Western Australia corridor, Tahiti, South America, Europe and Norwegian Sea. So now you can get local wind forecasts for these and more locations with one click. Take a look here: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu.html
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table