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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: July 8, 2010 9:50 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
Swell Potential Rating = 2.0 - California & 2.0 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)
Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    
Issued for Week of Monday 7/5 thru Sun 7/11
Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

North Pacific Gale Organizing
Modest New Zealand Gale Forecast for the Weekend Too

 

New Swell Classification Guidelines (Winter)

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead). Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft) Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft). Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs. Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
On Thursday (7/8) North and Central California had waist high ruffled north angled short period locally generated windswell with leftover pieces of southern hemi Swell #5S running about the same size underneath.  Southern California was getting thigh to waist high leftover remnants of Swell #5S up north with barely noticeable wrap around northwest windswell intermixed and clean. Down south leftovers of Swell #5s were waist to maybe chest high and a bit warbled by modest west wind. Hawaii's North Shore was flat with clean conditions. The East Shore was getting knee high tradewind generated east windswell and lightly chopped. The South Shore was small to flat with no southern hemi swell of interest occurring.

The forecast for North and Central CA is for no real rideable surf coming from either the south or north expected on Friday.  Then a little north windswell is forecast on Saturday at thigh high pushing maybe chest high Sunday then back to thigh high Monday (7/12). Southern California is to see no more southern hemi swell on Friday with things going flat and staying there through the weekend other than knee to thigh high north windswell possible on Sunday (7/11). Low odds of thigh high southern hemi background swell building in by Monday.  The North Shore of Oahu is to possibly see some dateline windswell later on Saturday (7/10) at  waist to near chest high on Saturday pushing shoulder high early Sunday (7/11) then fading from waist high on Monday. The East Shore to see east tradewind generated windswell Friday maybe at thigh  high pushing waist high steady through the weekend into the early week. The South Shore is to see no real swell until Saturday (7/10) when southern hemi swell arrives at waist high or so, fading some Sunday then back later Monday at near waist high. 

Up north a broad area of low pressure continues to be forecast for the dateline and Western Gulf on Fri-Sat (7/10) possibly generating 35 kt west winds and 18 ft seas pushing towards Hawaii initially and 40 kt west winds and 28 ft seas pushing towards the Pacific Northwest.  Down south a gale is forecast to push under New Zealand on Sat (7/10) and lifting northeast with 32-36 ft seas, then regenerating and tracking further northeast into mid-next week with up to 36 ft seas over the time period. Possible swell to result initially for Hawaii and then the US West Coast.  But is remains too early to know if any of this will really occur. At least there something to monitor. 

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
On Thursday (7/8) the North Pacific jetstream was tracking generally flat west over the 45N latitude with a decent trough developing on the dateline with 140 kt northwest winds flowing into it offering decent odds to support surface level low pressure development. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to hold into Friday (7/9)  continuing support for gale development, then all energy is to streak off to the east and northeast lifting up towards Alaska, reducing odds of gale development in that region. Beyond 72 hours the jet is to continue flowing generally flat west to east on the 45n latitude, but no wind energy or troughs of interest are forecast to be present, likely minimizing odds for gael formation. 

At the surface on Thursday (7/8) the usual area of high pressure off California had retrograded west and weakened to 1024 mbs, with no windswell producing northwest winds indicated. Trades remained light (15 kts) over the Hawaiian Islands too as a result of weakening high pressure over the Eastern Pacific.  But of more interest was a gale low positioned just east of the dateline at 980 mbs producing 30-35 kt west winds off it's southern quadrant generating 17 ft seas pushing a bit towards Hawaii.  This is expected to result in swell of up to 4 ft @ 12 sec (4.5 ft faces) for North Shore of Oahu starting late Saturday and building into Sunday AM (7/11) from 315 degrees. Over the next 72 hours this gael is to deepen on Thursday evening with pressure supposedly down to 968 mbs with a decent sized fetch of 40 kt west and northwest winds building at 46N 173W and holding there, up to 45 kts Friday AM at 47N 171W then fading from 40 kts in the evening at 47N 166W.   This fetch is to be aimed mostly towards the Pacific Northwest down into Northern CA. Seas are modeled jumping to 25 ft Fri AM at 47N 171W, then 28 ft in the evening at 48N 166W and fading from 28 ft Saturday AM at 48N 161W. If that occurs some degree of decent 14-15 sec period swell could result pushing into Central CA and points north of there early next week. This was once considered a long shot, but is looking more like a genuine possibility. Regardless, this system is 2100 nmiles away from the US West Coast and whatever swell does arrive will experience much decay on the long journey east.  Still, for July it would be a rare treat indeed. 

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

California Nearshore Forecast
On Thursday (7/8) high pressure at 1026 mbs was positioned 110 nmiles west of Cape Mendocino and having no impact on the US or Canadian West Coast with light winds generally in control. No change is forecast until Saturday when high pressure eases a little east and north winds build to 25 kts off Cape Mendocino, but reaching no further south than Pt Arena then retreating some. Maybe some warble to result, but no chop south of there. .A weak flow is to persist over Central and Southern CA waters until perhaps Thurs (7/15), and even then only north winds to 15 kts forecast. In generally a light mid-summer wind pattern is indicated.

 

South Pacific

Overview
On Thursday (7/8) the same old split and fragmented jetstream pattern remained in control of the South Pacific. The southern branch of the jet was tracking east down at 65S over the northern edge of  the Antarctic ice pack eliminating odds for development of surface level low pressure over exposed waters of the South Pacific. Over the next 72 hours more of the same is forecast initially, then a gently building trough is forecast taking hold southeast of New Zealand on Sat (7/10) with 130 kts winds building on Sunday pushing northeast through it offering good support for gale development down at the oceans surface. Beyond 72 hours that trough is to hold and continue tracking northeast Monday (7/12) through slowly almost pinching off Tuesday and Wednesday while moving into the East Pacific and out of the US Swell window by late in the workweek. Still some decent odds are suggested to support surface level gale formation. 

At the oceans surface low pressure had developed directly adjacent to the East Coast of New Zealand generating a small fetch of 40 kt south winds, but the fetch itself was sinking south. Maybe 25 ft seas are to result, not enough to generate swell of interest. Over the next 72 hours a broad area of gale force winds area to develop in association with e 960 mb low southeast of New Zealand starting Friday night (7/9) with 40 kt west-southwest winds at 60S 170E building to 45-50 kts Sat AM (7/10) from the southwest to south at 57S 175W then rapidly fading to 35 kts in the evening at 55S 162W. Sea are modeled to 32 ft Sat AM at 59S 178W pushing to near 36 ft in the evening at 57S 167W, then fading fast with maybe some 30 ft residual expected Sunday AM at 53S 160W. This is on the 187-181 degree tracks to Hawaii and the 206-203 degree tracks to California, all pretty well shadowed by Tahiti. Possible swell generation potential for Tahiti, with sideband energy for Hawaii and shadowed and somewhat indirect energy for the US West coast.

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hrs weak high pressure is to try to have a toe-hold off Cape Mendocino Sat/Sun (7/11) producing limited north winds there at 20-2t5 kts resulting in small short period north windswell before retrograding and dissipating. This high is to also stimulate trades over the Hawaiian Islands at 15-20 kts Sat (7/10) offering a little more hope for some windswell along east facing shores. A bit of a fade is forecast, then a weak return of high pressure is forecast Tues (7/13) limited to Cape Mendocino, only to dissipate again 24 hours later. Small windswell for Central CA at best. But after that a near neutral pressure pattern is to take hold of the entire North Pacific with no swell producing fetch forecast into Thurs (7/15). 

 

MJO/ENSO Update (reference): As of Thursday (7/8) the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remained in positive territory. The daily SOI was at 10.16 and has been positive for 13 days running. The 30 day average was up to 4.53 with the 90 day at 7.01. This is looking like the start of a modest run of the Inactive Phase of the MJO.  

Wind anomalies as of Wednesday (7/7) at the 850 mb level (approx 5000 ft up) as defined by models suggested light east anomalies holding over a small area in the West Pacific centered near the Philippines indicative of a fading pulse of the Inactive Phase of the MJO. A small and fading area of westerly anomalies indicative of the Active Phase of the MJO were still trying to hold on over Central America, not dying as fast as previous forecast. The Inactive Phase is trying to linger lightly over the Pacific with easterly anomalies forecast to over the Philippines 7/17 the dissipate.  A neutral wind pattern is to take over then with the Active Phase of the MJO fading out.  

We believe the remnants of El Nino will try to linger in the upper atmosphere for a while longer. But in reality, they are almost gone. The expectation is that we'll fall back into some form of a light to moderate La Nina Pattern (where the Inactive Phase takes control) for later 2010 into 2011.

Sea Surface Temp anomaly data (7/1) indicates that cooler than normal waters have developed over a moderate strip on the equator from South America drifting west to the dateline and are in fact getting cooler and covering a larger area over time, extending the whole way to almost New Guinea now.  And feeder bands of colder than normal water have developed pushing off the US West Coast and South America reaching to the dateline, only serving to reinforce the existing pattern, suggesting stronger than normal high pressure has built in both hemispheres. Looks like a classic La Nina setup. This is a turn for the worse and only seems to be getting stronger. At the same time a massive buildup of warmer than normal waters continues in the Atlantic almost bleeding into the far Eastern Pacific, of concern to hurricane forecasters there. We'll see if upper level winds support development of hurricane activity or whether residual upper level shear from El Nino will chop the tops of developing systems. Suspect shear will be gone by the heart of hurricane season in the Atlantic.

Below the surface on the equator no Kevin Wave activity was present and if anything colder than normal water was building strong over the dateline and pushing east (sort of like a cold Kelvin Wave). This pocket was -4 degs below normal. Not good. 

Over the entire Equatorial Pacific trades were blowing all the way to the Philippines and beyond, but only in the normal range. But there has begun to be some signs of slight easterly anomalies developing, which is to be expected given all the other data. This is typical for this time of the year but is likely to change towards an increased easterly flow as Fall approaches symptomatic of La Nina.  

El Nino is effectively gone and slowly losing it's grip on the global upper atmospheric weather pattern. Still some lingering impact is to continue through the Summer of 2010, but likely not enhancing the  storm track in the South Pacific any longer. A slow transition to a normal if not cooler than normal conditions (La Nina) is expected through Nov 2010, and the signs continue to point to a La Nina pattern for the long term future. 

See more details in the new  El Nino update.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours the models indicate a secondary fetch of 45 kt south to southwest winds are to build south of Tahiti on Sunday evening (7/11) at 52S 160W and shadowed by Tahiti relative to the US West Coast but lifting steadily northeast and quickly moving out of the shadow while holding in the 45-50 kts range covering a generally small area into Wednesday AM (7/14) at 40S 122W. Seas projected in the 32 ft range. Some decent potential for swell mainly for Central America with decent odds for the US West Coast and maybe sideband energy into Tahiti. Hawaii is to be pretty far off and great circle route from this fetch though.

Details to follow...

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

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Local Interest

Powerlines Productions Greatest Hits - Come see excerpts from Powerlines greatest Mavericks movies at the Red Vic in San Francisco on Wednesday July 7th at 2:00, 7:15 and 9:15 PM. Also a sneak peek at their new movie featuring footage of the epic 2009/2010 El Nino winter will be screened. The producers will be on-hand to take your questions.

Stormsurf Hi-Res Coastal Precipitation Models Upgraded Though a bit late in the season, on 3/20 we implemented the same basic technology used in our new snow/ski models into the coastal hi-res precipitation models. So now you can not only determined whether rain is forecast for your area, but also snow. And not just light, medium or heavy snow like most sites, but the exact snowfall amount (in inches) for each 3 hr frame of the animation. Here's a sample, but now this approach is used in all our precipitation models. http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=nwcoast_precip

Stormsurf Precip Models Upgraded! On 2/20 we upgraded some of the broader precipitation models driven by the hi-def GFS model to include snow fall. The algorithm used is similar to the recently released snow models for the Southwest US in that the areas where snow is expected are identified and the exact amount of snow forecast over a 3 hr window is explicitly color coded. For East and West Coast US interests the following links provide good examples:
West Coast: http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=nepac_precip
East Coast: http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=watla_precip

Stormsurf Weather Models have all been upgraded! Over the New Years break we installed all new and upgraded weather models. Also new are experimental snow models for the Southwest US. Take a look here: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_wx.html

Read about Eric Nelson and Curt Myers, the makers of Ride-On and other Big Wave Surf Movies here: http://coastviewsmag.com/powerlines-productions-filming-the-art-of-big-wave-surfing

Ride On! Powerlines new big wave epic is now available on DVD. Get the entire big wave story of the 2008-2009 season here: http://www.mavz.com/

Click here to learn more about Casa Noble Tequila! Casa Noble Tequila If you are looking for an exquisite experience in fine tequila tasting, one we highly recommend, try Case Noble. Consistently rated the best tequila when compared to any other. Available at BevMo (in California). Read more here: http://www.casanoble.com/

Interview With Stormsurf:  The crew at SurfScience.com worked with Stormsurf on a feature about why surfers should be able to read wave charts themselves. They are firm believers that a little learning can go a long way to help your surfing.  This is a great article to help convince your friends that they can benefit from being able to read the data themsleves rather than just relying on the forecasts of others.  See the full thing here:  Create Your Own Surf Forecast with Stormsurf

Wave Model Upgrade Status Report: At this point we believe the installation of the new wave models is complete, with no problems being reported, the server stabilizing and the much requested return of the old style hemispheric Surf Height models now operational (again) and running side-by-side along the new ones. We thank you for your patience and input as we went though this process.  Your feedback helps guide our efforts and ultimately results in a better product for everyone.  Now we're off to start providing better menus to some wave model products most of you probably haven't uncovered yet (site specific graph and text forecasts), updateing the wave model FAQs and then upgrading the Weather Models.  

New Wave Model Facts: Click HERE to read more about the new wave models. Important info.

Story About Stormsurf: The folks at SurfPulse (and specifically author Mike Wallace) have written up a really nice article about Stormsurf, complete with some good pics. Learn about how we came to be and a little of where we are going. Check it out here: http://www.surfpulse.com/2009/01/visceral-surf-forecasting-with-mark-sponsler/

Stormsurf Video: Just for fun - here's a clip about Stormsurf that ran on Bay Area TV a while back. Thought you might enjoy it: http://vimeo.com/2319455

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Need Chiropractic Help? Visit our friends at Darrow Chiropractic. Not only will Dr. Darrow fix you up, he might give you some big wave surfing tips too! See more here: http://www.darrowchiropractic.com/

Stormsurf Google Gadget - Want Stormsurf content on your Google Homepage? It's simple and free. If you have Google set as your default Internet Explorer Homepage, just click the link below and a buoy forecast will be added to your Google homepage. Defaults to Half Moon Bay CA. If you want to select a different location, just click on the word 'edit', and a list of alternate available locations appears. Pick the one of your choice. Content updates 4 times daily. A great way to see what waves are coming your way!
http://www.google.com/ig/add?moduleurl=http://www.stormsurf.com/gadget/stormsurf .xml

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