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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: July 6, 2006 5:40 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
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Swell Potential Rating = 1.0 - California & 1.0 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)
Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    
Issued for Week of Monday 7/3 thru Sun 7/9
Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Utility swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of Utility swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

South Pacific Bound in High Pressure
Jetstream Flow Taking it's Toll

 

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
On Thursday (7/6) Northern CA surf was up to waist high and blown out. South facing breaks in Santa Cruz were near flat with the rare waist high set. Central California surf was about the same, maybe just a touch bigger at waist high and blowing. Southern CA breaks from Santa Barbara to just north of LA were flat on the sets at the best breaks. The LA Area southward to Orange County was nearly flat. Southward from Orange County into San Diego best breaks were, your guessed it, flat. The North Shore of Oahu was flat. The South Shore was thigh high. The East Shore was maybe waist high.

There no surf in California to speak of, other than waist high blown out windswell north of Point Conception. Today Hawaii was flat for the most part other than waist high windswell on the east side. Looking for inspiration from the models is becoming a bit of a fruitless venture too, with nothing of any real interest depicted for the next 7 days. Hawaii will likely get some little sideband energy as storm after storm tracks under South Australia, pushing south of the Tasman Sea only to get instantly directed over the Ross Ice Shelf before properly entering the South Pacific, courtesy of a persistent jetstream flow pushing well to the south. No hope is even remotely suggested beyond 7 days either, but we'll keep watching. But for now, it's a good time to take that trip to the Indian Ocean. See details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Thursdays jetstream charts (7/6) indicated the jetstream flow was all but gone providing no support for surface level gale development for the next 7 days. If anything, it is to build a strong ridge north of Hawaii early next week, suggesting a building high pressure pattern at the surface. Maybe windswell for the east side of the Hawaiian Islands. Detailed monitoring for the North Pacific is now on an exception basis through the summer.

At the surface on Thursday (7/6) high pressure at 1024 mbs was centered just west of Central California with a ridge extending back to the dateline providing 15-20 kt trades in both Hawaii and down the California coast (from the north in CA and east in HI) and generating small short period junky windswell. No other swell producing fetch was indicated. Over the next 72 hours through Sunday (7/9) the high is to slip south and west setting up just north of Hawaii with north winds continuing along the California coast in the 20 kt range but building over Hawaii to the solid 20 kt range providing an incremental increase in windswell size there. Late in the weekend low pressure is to try and develop over the dateline, but that does not seem believable.

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

California Offshore Forecast
No big change forecast this week and through the weekend with northwest winds in the 20-25 kts range centered directly over North and Central CA (not over Cape Mendocino) generating lumpy unorganized short period windswell and poor conditions at exposed breaks in North and Central CA. That is supposed to fade Tuesday (7/11) as lower pressure moves into the Gulf of Alaska and towards our coast through Thursday with just moderate 10-15 kts northwest winds over outer waters. But high pressure is to be waiting in the wings north of Hawaii, and it will surely push east in the days to follow near next weekend likely cranking up the wind machine again.

The detailed 5 Day Wind Forecast is included with the surf & swell overview in the QuikCAST's.

 

South Pacific

Overview
On Thursday (7/6) the unfavorable jetstream pattern continued in full bloom with a split jetstream flow in-place over the entire South Pacific. The southern branch had winds only up to 110 kts and was generally traversing Antarctic Ice over the entire width of the South Pacific . No troughs of interest were indicated in the California or Hawaii swell windows. The Northern branch remained dominant though not grossly so with winds generally 130 kts flowing fairly flat from off Australia over southern Chile. No significant troughs or areas of interest were indicated capable of supporting surface level storm or gale development. Over the next 72 hours through Sunday (7/9) the southern branch is to push even further inland over Antarctica only serving to reinforce the poor pattern. A little trough is forecast building under New Zealand over the weekend with 120 kt winds flowing over it and drifting east into the Southwest Pacific, but as soon as it hits the greater Pacific it's to dive south over ice covered waters, eliminating any hope for surface level storm development over ice free waters. no change forecast out a week.

At the surface on Thursday (7/6) high pressure at 1020 mbs was centered just southeast of New Zealand ridging south to the Ross Ice shelf and blocking the eastern flow of storm energy from the Indian Ocean in to the Pacific. Otherwise a weak surface low was south of Tahiti generating a tiny area of 35-40 kt winds, most unimpressive. A decent storm was south of Tasmania generating up to 50 kts winds and up to 40 ft seas ultimately bound for Fiji at a bit of a tangent angle, with dribbles possible for Hawaii after being ground down by Fiji and surrounding Islands. Overall though a quiet pattern for the greater South Pacific with no indication of any swell generation suggested.

Over the next 72 hours the New Zealand high pressure system to track east continuing the lock down of the South Pacific. The Tahitian low is to generate another 12 hours of fetch with seas only reaching 27 ft for 6 hours. No hope here. No other swell producing system suggested.

Some fleeting fetch developed under New Zealand late Sunday (4/3) into Monday at 45 kts decaying to 30 kts, aimed somewhat towards Hawaii. 28 ft seas were modeled Monday at 57S 170E building in areal coverage in the evening with seas to 29 ft at 57S 175E then fading fast from 28 ft Tuesday AM (7/4) at 56S 178W. This was really just the decaying remnants of a stronger storm that formed under Australia. Limited swell likely pushing towards Hawaii with swell arriving Tuesday (7/11) at 1.6 ft @ 16 secs (2.5 ft faces) from 207 degrees.

A series of 3 small lows developed in the Southeast Pacific, one on Thursday (6/29) producing 28 ft seas just off the edge of the Ross Ice Shelf at 62S 127-140W for 12 hours possibly sending tiny swell north towards California. Another tiny low formed late Friday (6/30) generating near 30 ft seas for 12 hours at 40S 110W possibly adding a little size for the swell pushing towards South California. One more patch of 26 ft seas developed Saturday PM (7/1) at 60S 125W pushing northeast for 12 hours to 55S 120W adding a bit more duration to the existing swell above, but not much. All this to result in a series of small weak swells to hit Southern CA on Saturday (7/8) building to maybe 3 ft @ 14 secs (3-4 ft faces but likely much smaller) by Sunday from 185 degrees. This same swell to hit North CA on Sunday building to 2.6 ft @ 14-15 secs Monday (3.5 ft faces) from 180-185 degrees.

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours high pressure to continue locked north of Hawaii at 1028 mbs with 20 kt east winds the norm there generating short period windswell on the East Shore. The north winds pattern off California to fade some early next week and low pressure currently over the dateline is to ride over the Hawaii high and then drop southeast towards California generating 25-30 kt northwest winds aimed well at the Pacific Northwest and California. Seems unlikely though considering it's summer. If if happens small short period windswell to result for the US West Coast.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours the unfavorable ridge in the upper levels is to continue shearing the top off any low pressure system trying to develop in the greater South Pacific. Early next week another small low to track under New Zealand and try to push some 55 kt fetch to the northeast, but the jetstream is to have it's way pushing it quickly south over Antarctic Ice with only 32 ft seas briefly building before becoming icebound. Nothing else is charted to follow.

Details to follow...


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Local Interest

New Content - QuikCAST's and Satellite Altimetry: Stormsurf has been busy this winter putting some new things together. First up is two new QuikCAST's for the Northeast US Coast, one for Cape Hatteras-to-Virginia Beach and another for New Jersey-to-New York. Check them out Here
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