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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: July 5, 2007 8:22 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
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Swell Potential Rating = 3.0 - California & 3.0 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)
Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    
Issued for Week of Monday 7/2 thru Sun 7/8
Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Utility swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of Utility swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

S. Hemi Swell Fading/South Pacific Calm
Windswell the Only Option Longterm

 

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
On Thursday (7/5) Northern CA surf was head high or so and a bit wind textured. South facing breaks in Santa Cruz were chest high with sets in the head high or slightly more range. Central California surf (Morro Bay) was chest high with some bigger sets. Southern CA from Santa Barbara to just north of LA was up to near chest high at south exposed spots on the sets. The LA Area southward to Orange County was chest to head high at the best breaks. Southward from Orange County into San Diego best breaks were chest high. The North Shore of Oahu was flat. The South Shore was on the downside of the southern hemi swell with waves about chest high and fading. The East Shore report was not available.

North/Central California was just past the peak of the second pulse of the southern hemi swell originating from New Zealand. Southern California was on the backside of the second pulse of southern hemi swell from the Southwest Pacific. Hawaii was flat on the North Shore but still getting fun sized surf from from the latest southern hemi swell, but definitely heading down. Nothing is happening on the East Shore. Swell that started from a storm under Tasmania pushing over New Zealand to just short of Tahiti is heading down in all locations. Hawaii has fared the best from this one though California got their share. And the XGames in Puerto sat pretty the whole way through the event, with the US winning it. Hope everyone is getting their fill cause the outlook is not so rosy. No storms has been in the South Pacific since Friday of last week (6/29) and nothing is forecast until at least the middle of next week. So windswell will be the only hope for a while both on the mainland and in the Islands. See details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Thursdays jetstream charts (7/5) for the North Pacific indicated absolutely nothing of interest with a thin flat steam running from over Japan straight into southern British Columbia with no troughs of interest. A ridge inland over the US West Coast making rather extreme heat there is already breaking down and is to be gone by Friday. Over the next 72 hours no change is forecast with winds generally 90 kts or less flowing flat (zonally) over the North Pacific on the 40N latitude. Beyond 72 hours a bit of a trough is modeled developing over the dateline late Tuesday (7/10) with up to 120 kt winds by Wednesday moving gently towards the Gulf of Alaska. Maybe some support for low pressure development, but nothing more.

At the surface today moderate high pressure at 1024 mbs was 900 nmiles west of San Francisco generating the usual summertime pressure gradient off Cape Mendocino resulting in 25-30 kt north winds there trailing south and then southwest over the southern tip of the Big Island of Hawaii. Copious windswell was occurring along the Central California coast. Very weak low pressure was over the Northwestern Pacific but of no interest from a swell production standpoint. Over the next 72 hrs high pressure to hold off California if not building just a bit to 1028 mbs and moving a tad more east, continuing the fetch off the northern region there and producing more windswell. The fetch pushing over the Hawaiian Islands from the south side of this high is to build a bit and move further north improving the odds for windswell over eastern shores of the Hawaiian Islands, but not markedly so. Of some interest from purely a meteorological perspective, two low pressure systems are to start building south of the Aleutians, one in the Western Gulf and the other off the Kuril's. No swell producing winds, but curious given the time of year.

Tropics
No tropical systems of interest were being tracked at this time.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

California Offshore Forecast
On Thursday (7/5) high pressure at 1026 mbs was hanging 900 nmiles off the coast of San Francisco resulting in an enhanced northerly flow over California waters from Pt Conception northward at 15 kts and up to 30 kts near Cape Mendocino. Local windswell and local northwest winds was the result with no eddy flow in place just yet. No change is forecast until sometime Sunday (7/8) when the high pressure system edges a bit north and the gradient pulls a bit away from the coast from Pt Arena southward, resulting in perhaps a southerly flow and calmer local winds. That pattern to amplify into next week with no wind to speak of over outer waters though it seems reasonably to assume an eddy (southerly) flow will likely be in place. Southern California to remain in an eddy flow as it already is.

 

South Pacific

Overview
Thursdays jetstream charts (7/5) for the South Pacific indicated a split jetstream flow in-place. The southern branch was trying to make a faint push northward under New Zealand but then was met with a brisk push of southward moving air originating from the northern Branch, pushing clear over in to Antarctica with no relief over east of 165W. This is not favorable at all for low pressure development. Over the next 72 hours through Sunday (7/8) another big incursion of southward moving air (a ridge) is to push into Antarctica continuing the lockdown on storm development. Another trough is to try and push the jet a bit to the north under New Zealand on Sunday but not impressive by any means. Beyond 72 hours more of the same is forecast with a big ridge locking down the Southeastern PAcific and a weak trough trying to get a foothold under New Zealand, but never really making it. The result to be an environment generally inhospitable to organized low pressure development.

At the surface today no swell producing fetch was evident in the Hawaii and US swell windows, and if anything winds were generally pushing south towards Antarctica, the exact opposite of what we want to see. Over the next 72 hours more of the same is forecast in the Southeast Pacific, though faint bits of energy is to try and push north just east of New Zealand, but essentially ineffective.

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours the models suggest the two weak low pressure system to continue circulating south of the Aleutians moving slowly from west to east and into the Gulf of Alaska. But again, no swell producing fetch to result. Otherwise high pressure to continue it's reign over the Eastern Pacific into Monday (7/9) at 1028 mbs but slowly trying to push inland over Canada but not quite making it. The result is to be continued north winds off Cape Mendocino at near 30 kts with windswell production in gear. No big change forecast in Hawaii either with trades somewhat enhanced and moderate windswell expected on Eastern shores. Winds to die off California by Tuesday (7/10) with windswell fading while the high pressure system retreats west resulting in increased trades and windswell for Hawaii Wednesday (7/11), then the high fades and winds and windswell die with it.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours the models suggest some fetch is to try and set up under New Zealand by Tuesday (7/10) at 35 kts building to 45 kts Thursday over a pretty decent sized fetch area aimed well to the north. But that all seems highly unlikely given the state of the jetstream aloft. So for now we'll say no hope for surface level storm development, but that is subject to change.

Details to follow...

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Local Interest

New CDIP Buoys Online: We've updated our buoy system to pick up new CDIP buoys put in service recently. One is the Monterey Canyon (inside Monterey Bay). Check it out here: Buoy 156. Also there are more new CDIP buoys activated in NCal, SCal, Pacific Northwest, and Florida.

6th Annual Jay Moriarity Memorial Paddleboard Race: Saturday June 23rd 2007. Surftech is presenting the 6th Annual Jay Moriarity Memorial Paddleboard Race. The “Jay Race” is considered one of the premiere paddleboard races on the West Coast attracting the states best paddlers to compete in the challenging waters of the Monterey Bay. is the 12-mile race course that start's and finishes at beautiful New Brighton State Beach in Aptos and loops through the kelp beds of the Monterey Bay. In addition to the 12 mile race, there will be a 2 mile Short Course and Youth Races for paddlers of all levels. The 2 mile race is an opportunity for paddlers of all levels to compete.” It's about sharing the spirit and stoke that Jay shared with everyone” With this spirit in mind, many competitors partaking in the 12 mile race offer their boards to newer competitors to use in the shorter race. With the 12 mile race starting at 8:30 am, the other races begin mid day with the awards being presented at around 2:00 pm. For more information:
Gunnar Roll - Phone: 831-462-9585 e-mail: rollfamily3178@sbcglobal.net or Duke Brouwer - Phone: 831-479-4944 e-mail: jayrace@surftech.com

Jason-1 Satellite Data On-line and Improved!: Our Jason-1 satellite data was upgraded yet again Wednesday PM (6/6) and is now operating better than ever. We've added a feature that averages the data every 15 measurements on the local views and every 50 measurements on the global view (1 measurement every 3 nautical miles) and overlays the results onto the wave model chart. Both the single highest measurement on the chart and the highest 15 measurement average are posted at the bottom of each chart. This seems to work real well and compensates for the very spiky nature of the raw data coming off the satellite. So we now have an effective way to verify the accuracy (or lack of) the wave model output. See the data here: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_alt.html

Comprehensive guides to surfing Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Baja and Mainland Mexico: They ain't pretty. They ain't glossy. They ain't coffee table picture books. These are guides for surfers who want real, useful information. Since 1996 The Surfer's Guides have always provided more info, more detail, more tips, and have been updated more often than any other surf travel guides. Take a look here: http://www.surfingtravel.com/

Surfing's Greatest Misadventures: We've been reading a great book of short stories all based around surfing adventures, but not in classical sense. These are stories of surf trips gone bad, personal growth and realizations while on surf trips, silly things that happen while surfing right on up to horrifying shark attacks, and some great nostalgic tails of surfers versus the Marines at Trestles back in the early days. A truly enjoyable, easy to read and entertaining look at the culture and people that make up the surf community. Check it out here: http://www.thesurfbook.com

New Book: Inside Mavericks - Portrait of a Monster Wave: Ace photographer Doug Acton, cinematographer Grant Washburn and San Francisco Chronicle writer Bruce Jenkins have teamed up to present an insiders view of Mavericks. Read all the first hand accounts from Peter Mel, Ken 'Skin Dog' Collins, Grant Washburn, Mark Renniker and the rest of the gang as they describe the game of surfing one of the largest waves in the world, fully illustrated with the hauntingly artistic images from Doug Acton, long-time Mavericks lensman. There's even a section featuring Stormsurf! Get your autographed copy here: http://www.insidemavericks.com/

Stormsurf Google Gadget - Want Stormsurf content on your Google Homepage? It's simple and free. If you have Google set as your default Internet Explorer Homepage, just click the link below and a buoy forecast will be added to your Google homepage. Defaults to Half Moon Bay CA. If you want to select a different location, just click on the word 'edit', and a list of alternate available locations appears. Pick the one of your choice. Content updates 4 times daily. A great way to see what waves are coming your way!
http://www.google.com/ig/add?moduleurl=http://www.stormsurf.com/gadget/stormsurf .xml

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Read all the latest news and happenings on our News Page here

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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