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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: July 2, 2010 10:18 AM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
Swell Potential Rating = 4.0 - California & 1.0 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)
Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    
Issued for Week of Monday 6/28 thru Sun 7/4
Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Southern Hemi Swell #5S for California
Locally Generated Windswell in the Mix Too/Quiet Longterm Pattern

 

New Swell Classification Guidelines (Winter)

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead). Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft) Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft). Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs. Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
On Friday (7/2) North and Central California had trashed waist high north angled short period locally generated windswell with brisk northwest winds and pretty trashed even early. Southern California was getting thigh high wrap around weak northwest windswell up north and pretty clean early. Down south it was a little bigger at waist high with even a bigger set every now and again but pretty crumbly all locally generated northwest windswell. Hawaii's North Shore was flat with clean conditions. The East Shore was getting waist high trade wind generated windswell and lightly chopped. The South Shore was tiny with waves thigh high at the better spots and plate glass early with trades nearly gone.

The forecast for North and Central CA is for more moderate sized locally generated north windswell at chest high Saturday and Sunday pushing head high Monday and Tuesday. Southern hemi swell is expected in later Saturday a chest high late reaching 2 ft overhead Sunday and a shade less on Monday then 1 ft overhead on Tuesday. Southern California is to see northwest windswell at knee high Saturday pushing thigh high Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. But of more interest is new southern hemi swell expected to arrive late Saturday at chest high pushing 2.0 ft overhead Sunday and Monday, then down to 1 ft overhead Tuesday. The North Shore of Oahu is to see no swell of interest for the foreseeable future. The East Shore to see no real east tradewind generated windswell till later Saturday at waist to chest high holding Sunday then dropping to just below waist high on Monday and gone after that. The South Shore to see a very south angled pulse at thigh to waist high Saturday fading out Sunday. 

Up north no swell producing fetch is expected from the North Pacific for the next 7days other than locally generated windswell.  Down south a gale developed in the Southeast Pacific on Sat/Sun (6/27) with 40-45 kt southwest winds producing seas in the 38 ft range. Swell possible pushing north towards California for the 4th of July weekend though focused better on Central America. Beyond no swell producing weather systems are indicated. A series of fairly strong gales are to push under New Zealandover the weekend into early next week - but all energy is to be aimed due east and little swell migrating north into the Hawaiian and California swell windows. 

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
On Friday (7/2) the North Pacific jetstream was just a finger of energy trickling weakly east just south of the Aleutians. A little trough like pulse of energy was over the dateline with winds 120 kts, but not productive offering no support for surface level low pressure development. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to push east and build a little with up to 140 kts winds pushing trough the Western Gulf on late Sunday (7/4), but offering only the faintest of hope to support low pressure development. Beyond 72 hours that energy is to whither while tracking northeast up into Alaska while a generally anemic pattern sets up over the rest of the North Pacific, with the main energy flow just south of the Aleutians and unremarkable.

At the surface on Friday (7/2) modest high pressure at 1032 mbs was positioned 1200 nmiles west of Cape Mendocino CA ridging into the North and Central California coast generating a weak gradient there from Oregon south to Pt Conception and south of there producing north winds at 20-25 kts providing very short period and raw northwest proto-windswell for exposed breaks. This high was also only having limited effect on trades over the Hawaiian Islands, with light northeast winds there at 15 kts or so offering only minimal windswell production capacity. No tropical systems of interest were occurring. Over the next 72 hours the high pressure system is to track slowly east starting to invigorate the pressure gradient over North and Central CA with north winds building and consolidating over Cape Mendocino 30 kts by Saturday (7/3) and holding if not building in areal coverage pushing near 35 kts on Sunday into Monday before faltering. Increased odds for larger and longer period local windswell for Central CA as a result, with improving conditions since the fetch will be limited to points north of Pt Arena on Sunday onwards. As the high tracks east trades to be fading over the Hawaiian Islands by Sunday (7/4) and remaining below windswell producing levels.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

California Nearshore Forecast
On Friday (7/2) high pressure at 1032 mbs was 1200 nmiles north of Hawaii and 1200 nmiles west5 of Cape Mendocino ridging modestly into the coast of Central CA generating the expected pressure gradient and with north winds at 20-25 kts over the North and Central CA coast resulting in short period junky north windswell and warble. More of the same is forecast if not an amplifying wind pattern Saturday with winds to 30+ kts building from San Francisco northwards over outer waters. But the good news is the core of that fetch is to be lifting north into it's more normal place off Cape Mendocino. In short, local conditions to be trashed on Saturday everywhere but Southern CA, but then after that the gradient is to be isolated to the Cape Mendo region, with a light eddy flow (south winds) in control from just south of Pt Arena on into Southern CA Sunday-Tuesday (7/6). Beyond the gradient is to fade some up north winds north winds down to 25 kts, with a light local wind flow for the entire state other than extreme Northern CA for the balance of the workweek. There some suggestion that the gradient will rebuild slightly later in the week (Thurs-Fri 7/9), but all fetch to remain well to the north with light winds down south over Central and South CA.

 

South Pacific

Overview
On Friday (7/2) a split and fragmented jetstream remained in control of the South Pacific. The southern branch of the jet was tracking east down at 65S and even further south in the east over the Antarctic ice pack eliminating odds for development of surface level low pressure over exposed waters of the South Pacific. Of some note, a trough was trying to push under New Zealand and was lifting the jet a little to the north there, but the pocket of opportunity was small. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to push east and quickly get squashed as another ridge builds, driving the jet to the south by Sunday (7/4) with the whole flow back to a very southern track 24 hours beyond. Beyond 72 hours a big ridge is forecast building over the Southeast Pacific eliminating any support for surface level low pressure development.

At the oceans surface swell from a previous gale was pushing north (see Southeast Pacific Gale below).  Otherwise a patch of west winds at 35 kts was pushing under New Zealand, but of no use at meaningful production of swell. Otherwise high pressure at 1036 mbs was in control of the Southeast Pacific. Over the next 72 hours a big gael is forecast just off the coast of Southern Chile, with a huge fetch of 45-50 kt south winds forecast on Sun-Mon (7/5) peaking at 55S 100W, but way east of the US mainland swell window. No swell is expected for US interests though Chile and Peru might do well.  Also a gale is to be tracking under New Zealand Sun-Mon (7/5) pushing due east, with all fetch on the same track if not aimed a bit southeast. Little to no energy is forecast pushing up the great circle tracks to Hawaii or California, though Tahiti might see some sideband energy.

 

Southeast Pacific Gale (Swell #5S)
On Friday evening (6/25) a good sized area of fast moving 40-45 kts winds developed in the deep South-Central Pacific at 59S 152W (confirmed) with some energy aimed north at 59S 152W. It lifted northeast Sat AM (6/26) with a moderate sized area of 40-45 kt southwest winds at 53S 143W pushing better almost due north in the evening to 50S 140W at 35-40 kts (confirmed), then reaching north to 43S 125 Sunday AM (6/27) with wind speed down to 35 kts (modeled). The models suggested 32 ft seas at 60S 152W Friday PM building to 36 ft Sat AM (6/26) at 54S 140W and near 38 ft Sat PM at 50S 140W on the eastern edge of the CA swell window, then lifting north at 38 ft at 48S 138 late Saturday night.  The Jason-1 satellite made a pass over the back end of this fetch at 11 PM Saturday night at 33.6 ft with one peak reading to 36.4 ft where the model suggested 30 ft seas. So this was right on track if not better than expected.

There are reasonable odds that a swell has developed and is pushing up toward California with more size for Central America. Swell expected into Southern CA late and Saturday (7/3) and into North CA on Sunday with size expected to be decent and continuing into Monday.  But, the estimates below are likely on the high side.  The issue is no really solid winds were recorded by the ASCAT satellite to justify either the sea height sizes indicated by the models or the period forecast.  But, the Jason-1 satellite made several good passes over the periphery of the fetch and indicated seas were right on track with the models, but not passes occurred over the core of the storm. So we're in essence flying blind here. Assume size will be something less than forecast.

South California:  Expect swell arrival on Sat (7/3) late afternoon reaching 2 ft @ 20 secs (4 ft faces) and continuing up overnight. Swell to be peaking Sunday AM with pure swell 4.0 ft @ 18 secs (7.5 ft faces with top spots to 4 ft overhead) holding through the day.  Swell to still be solid on Monday with pure swell 4.5 ft @ 16 secs (7.0-7.5 ft faces with top spots to 9 ft). Swell to be on the decline on Tuesday (7/6) from 4.2 ft @ 14-15 secs (6 ft faces) lingering into Wed (7/7).  Swell Direction: 193 degrees    

North California:  Expect swell arrival on Sat (7/3) late afternoon reaching 2 ft @ 21 secs (4 ft faces) at sunset and continuing up overnight. Swell to be peaking Sunday afternoon with pure swell 3.9 ft @ 18 secs (7.0 ft faces with top spots to 3 ft overhead) holding through sunset.  Swell to still be solid on Monday with pure swell 4.0 ft @ 17 secs (7.0 ft faces with top spots to 8 ft). Swell to be on the decline on Tuesday (7/6) from 4.0 ft @ 15 secs (6 ft faces) lingering into Wed (7/7).  Swell Direction: 190 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hrs high pressure is to try and hold on at 1028 mbs located off extreme Northern California ridging into Canada, producing 25 kt northwest winds Wednesday (7/7), then possibly regenerating some with winds to 30 kts over a tiny area off Cape Mendocino Thurs/Fri (7/9) providing a little nudge to the local windswell size for Central CA then. Also at that time trades to pick up some targeting the Hawaiian Islands too with improved odds for a little northeast windswell with trades at near 20 kts. There some suggestion on the models of a gale forming out on the dateline on Wed (7/7) with 30 kts west winds for 12 hours, but that seems more like wishful thinking. It is July.

 

MJO/ENSO Update (reference): As of Friday (7/2) the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was moving into positive territory as expected. The daily SOI was at 11.39 and has been positive for 8 days running. The 30 day average was down at 1.27 with the 90 day at 7.68. This is looking like the start of the Inactive Phase of the MJO.  

Wind anomalies as of Thursday (7/1) at the 850 mb level (approx 5000 ft up) as defined by models suggested moderate to moderate plus east anomalies holding over a broad area in the West Pacific indicative of a moderate pulse of the Inactive Phase of the MJO. They extend from just west of India to the dateline. A small and fading area of westerly anomalies indicative of the Active Phase of the MJO were trying to hold on over Central America but expected to exit fast to the east into the Atlantic. It appears the Inactive Phase has taken over the Pacific. Easterly anomalies are forecast to hold on the dateline through 7/11 while easing east over the majority of the greater Pacific, then slowly loosing coverage.   Finally on 7/21 a neutral wind pattern is to take over as the Active Phase of the MJO fades out. If anything, with each new run of the models the strength and duration of this Inactive Phase increases (not good). This is likely a harbinger of what is to come this Fall and Winter.    

We believe the remnants of El Nino will try to linger in the upper atmosphere for a while longer. But in reality, they are almost gone. The expectation is that we'll fall back into some form of a light to moderate La Nina Pattern (where the Inactive Phase takes control) for later 2010 into 2011.

Sea Surface Temp anomaly data (7/1) indicates that cooler than normal waters have developed over a moderate strip on the equator from South America drifting west to the dateline and are in fact getting cooler and covering a larger area over time, extending the whole way to almost New Guinea now.  And feeder bands of colder than normal water have developed pushing off the US West Coast and South America reaching to the dateline, only serving to reinforce the existing pattern, suggesting stronger than normal high pressure has built in both hemispheres. Looks like a classic La Nina setup. This is a turn for the worse and only seems to be getting stronger. At the same time a massive buildup of warmer than normal waters continues in the Atlantic almost bleeding into the far Eastern Pacific, of concern to hurricane forecasters there. We'll see if upper level winds support development of hurricane activity or whether residual upper level shear from El Nino will chop the tops of developing systems. Suspect shear will be gone by the heart of hurricane season in the Atlantic.

Below the surface on the equator no Kevin Wave activity was present and if anything colder than normal water was building strong over the dateline and pushing east (sort of like a cold Kelvin Wave). This pocket was -4 degs below normal. Not good. 

Over the entire Equatorial Pacific trades were blowing all the way to the Philippines and beyond, but only in the normal range. But there has begun to be some signs of slight easterly anomalies developing, which is to be expected given all the other data. This is typical for this time of the year but is likely to change towards an increased easterly flow as Fall approaches symptomatic of La Nina.  

El Nino is effectively gone and slowly losing it's grip on the global upper atmospheric weather pattern. Still some lingering impact is to continue through the Summer of 2010, but likely not enhancing the  storm track in the South Pacific any longer. A slow transition to a normal if not cooler than normal conditions (La Nina) is expected through Nov 2010, and the signs continue to point to a La Nina pattern for the long term future. 

See more details in the new  El Nino update.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours the models indicate high pressure is to again take control of the entire South Pacific set up under Tahiti at 1040 mbs by Wed (7/7) and sinking southeast pretty much pushing the storm track flat west to east if not to the south some and minimizing the odds for swell producing fetch to develop. There is suggestions of a big gale/storm building under New Zealand on Fri (7/9) with 50 kt southwest winds, but that is pure fantasy at this early date.  

Details to follow...

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

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Local Interest

Powerlines Productions Greatest Hits - Come see excerpts from Powerlines greatest Mavericks movies at the Red Vic in San Francisco on Wednesday July 7th at 2:00, 7:15 and 9:15 PM. Also a sneak peek at their new movie featuring footage of the epic 2009/2010 El Nino winter will be screened. The producers will be on-hand to take your questions.

Stormsurf Hi-Res Coastal Precipitation Models Upgraded Though a bit late in the season, on 3/20 we implemented the same basic technology used in our new snow/ski models into the coastal hi-res precipitation models. So now you can not only determined whether rain is forecast for your area, but also snow. And not just light, medium or heavy snow like most sites, but the exact snowfall amount (in inches) for each 3 hr frame of the animation. Here's a sample, but now this approach is used in all our precipitation models. http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=nwcoast_precip

Stormsurf Precip Models Upgraded! On 2/20 we upgraded some of the broader precipitation models driven by the hi-def GFS model to include snow fall. The algorithm used is similar to the recently released snow models for the Southwest US in that the areas where snow is expected are identified and the exact amount of snow forecast over a 3 hr window is explicitly color coded. For East and West Coast US interests the following links provide good examples:
West Coast: http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=nepac_precip
East Coast: http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=watla_precip

Stormsurf Weather Models have all been upgraded! Over the New Years break we installed all new and upgraded weather models. Also new are experimental snow models for the Southwest US. Take a look here: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_wx.html

Read about Eric Nelson and Curt Myers, the makers of Ride-On and other Big Wave Surf Movies here: http://coastviewsmag.com/powerlines-productions-filming-the-art-of-big-wave-surfing

Ride On! Powerlines new big wave epic is now available on DVD. Get the entire big wave story of the 2008-2009 season here: http://www.mavz.com/

Click here to learn more about Casa Noble Tequila! Casa Noble Tequila If you are looking for an exquisite experience in fine tequila tasting, one we highly recommend, try Case Noble. Consistently rated the best tequila when compared to any other. Available at BevMo (in California). Read more here: http://www.casanoble.com/

Interview With Stormsurf:  The crew at SurfScience.com worked with Stormsurf on a feature about why surfers should be able to read wave charts themselves. They are firm believers that a little learning can go a long way to help your surfing.  This is a great article to help convince your friends that they can benefit from being able to read the data themsleves rather than just relying on the forecasts of others.  See the full thing here:  Create Your Own Surf Forecast with Stormsurf

Wave Model Upgrade Status Report: At this point we believe the installation of the new wave models is complete, with no problems being reported, the server stabilizing and the much requested return of the old style hemispheric Surf Height models now operational (again) and running side-by-side along the new ones. We thank you for your patience and input as we went though this process.  Your feedback helps guide our efforts and ultimately results in a better product for everyone.  Now we're off to start providing better menus to some wave model products most of you probably haven't uncovered yet (site specific graph and text forecasts), updateing the wave model FAQs and then upgrading the Weather Models.  

New Wave Model Facts: Click HERE to read more about the new wave models. Important info.

Story About Stormsurf: The folks at SurfPulse (and specifically author Mike Wallace) have written up a really nice article about Stormsurf, complete with some good pics. Learn about how we came to be and a little of where we are going. Check it out here: http://www.surfpulse.com/2009/01/visceral-surf-forecasting-with-mark-sponsler/

Stormsurf Video: Just for fun - here's a clip about Stormsurf that ran on Bay Area TV a while back. Thought you might enjoy it: http://vimeo.com/2319455

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Need Chiropractic Help? Visit our friends at Darrow Chiropractic. Not only will Dr. Darrow fix you up, he might give you some big wave surfing tips too! See more here: http://www.darrowchiropractic.com/

Stormsurf Google Gadget - Want Stormsurf content on your Google Homepage? It's simple and free. If you have Google set as your default Internet Explorer Homepage, just click the link below and a buoy forecast will be added to your Google homepage. Defaults to Half Moon Bay CA. If you want to select a different location, just click on the word 'edit', and a list of alternate available locations appears. Pick the one of your choice. Content updates 4 times daily. A great way to see what waves are coming your way!
http://www.google.com/ig/add?moduleurl=http://www.stormsurf.com/gadget/stormsurf .xml

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Read all the latest news and happenings on our News Page here

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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