On Sunday (7/2) Northern CA surf was thigh high, foggy and onshore. Flat. South facing breaks in Santa Cruz were knee to thigh high. Central California surf was about the same. Southern CA breaks from Santa Barbara to just north of LA were thigh high pushing waist high on the sets. The LA Area southward to Orange County was in the waist high range with chest high sets. Southward from Orange County into San Diego best breaks were waist high and up to chest-shoulder high on the sets. The North Shore of Oahu was flat. The South Shore was thigh to waist high, occasionally a little more. The East Shore was waist high.
Tiny surf continues in California with the Southern Hemi swell expected for the weekend being something less than anticipated. But it was rideable and that is something worth taking to the bank, because long term it's going to get worse before it gets better. Today Hawaii was really small with dribbles lapping up on the South Shore and nothing really rideable anywhere else. Looking at the models we see a continuation of the unfavorable jetstream pattern in the South Pacific driving all storm energy over Antarctic Ice and providing no chance for anything to develop in ice free waters. The fact that the iceshelf is growing as we get deeper into winter there isn't helping either. Very long term there a bit of relief projected a week out with the jet supposed to lift north under New Zealand, but at this point that's just a figment of the models imagination, and certainly nothing one should expect to occur. See details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
Sundays jetstream charts (7/2) indicated the jetstream flow was all but gone and providing no support for surface level gale development for the next 7 days. Detailed monitoring for the North Pacific is now on an exception basis through the summer.
At the surface on Sunday (7/2) high pressure at 1028 mbs was centered well north of HAwaii in the Gulf of Alaska ridging slightly into California nd over the Hawaiian Islands providing 15-20 kt trades in both locations (from the north in CA and east in HI) and generating small short period windswell there. No other swell producing fetch was indicated. Over the next 72 hours through Wednesday (7/5) the Gulf high is to holds pushing just slightly more to the southeast generating slightly stronger north winds along along the North and Central CA coasts (20-25 kts) and generating small short period windswell there. Trades to continue over the Hawaiian Islands continuing the small windswell along eastern shores there too. No change in swell generation potential suggested. Low pressure to try and make inroads east of Kamchatka, but with no upper level support not much is expected to happen.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
California Offshore Forecast
More of the same for the coming week: Northwest winds marginally on the rise Tuesday (7/4) to 20-25 kts making for lumpy unorganized conditions at exposed breaks in North and Central CA through Thursday, then stepping up another notch Friday (7/7) to the 25 kt range maybe adding yet a little more size to the sloppy mix. The whole mess to start fading out on Sunday.
The detailed 5 Day wind forecast is included with the surf & swell overview in the QuikCAST's.
On Sunday (7/2) more of the same was occurring with a fully split jetstream flow in-place over the entire South Pacific with the southern branch remaining weak (110 kts or less) and traversing the Ross Ice Shelf. No troughs of interest were indicated in the California or Hawaii swell windows. The Northern branch remained dominant with winds 130-160 kts flowing zonally (fairly flat) from off Australia over southern Chile. No significant troughs or areas of interest were indicated capable of supporting surface level storm or gale development. Over the next 72 hours (through Wednesday 7/5) no good change is forecast. A new ridge to build under New Zealand diving over the Ross Ice Shelf and into Antarctica reinforcing the total shutdown of the storm corridor there through the workweek (Fri 7/7). By the weekend a little trough is forecast to eventually building under New Zealand with 120 kt winds flowing over it, possibly setting the stage for a more favorable environmental change, but this is far from guaranteed.
At the surface on Sunday (7/2) high pressure at 1028 mbs was centered east of New Zealand driving the usual string of eastward bound Indian Ocean low pressure systems well to the south and over Antarctic Ice, eliminating any swell generation potential. A rather strong low was just northeast of New Zealand, but all it's fetch was aimed west towards New Zealand, likely generating solid swell for them. Unfortunately nothing was aimed at Hawaii or the US mainland. Over the next 72 hours both the high and low east of New Zealand are to decay, but nothing of interest is to take their place. Some fleeting fetch is modeled under New Zealand late Sunday (4/3) into Monday at 45 kts decaying to 30 kts, aimed somewhat towards Hawaii. 28 ft seas are modeled and fading through the period, but this was really just the decaying remnants of a stronger storm that formed under Australia. Very limited swell generation for Hawaii with swell arriving late next weekend along south facing shores. Otherwise no swell generation potential for the US mainland.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours high pressure to continue off California perhaps shifting a bit more to the south by next weekend. But in general 20-25 kt north winds to continue from Cape Mendocino southward to Pt Conception generating small short period windswell but nothing remarkable. The same trade wind induced windswell to continue along eastern shores of the Hawaiian Islands, but progressively moving north and having more depth to the fetch area, incrementally increasing the size of the windswell into next weekend.
Beyond 72 hours the unfavorable ridge in the upper levels is to continue shearing the top off any low pressure system trying to develop in the greater South Pacific. Another low from under Australia to track east under New Zealand late Thursday (7/6) but it's to suffer a fate similar to all those before it. Next weekend a broad 968 mb low is to try and organize southeast of Tahiti with 45 kt winds over a decent sized area aimed north by Saturday (7/8) generating 25 ft seas, but that is unlikely to occur. So for now there's no swell producing storms forecast.
Details to follow...
New Content - QuikCAST's and Satellite Altimetry: Stormsurf has been busy this winter putting some new things together. First up is two new QuikCAST's for the Northeast US Coast, one for Cape Hatteras-to-Virginia Beach and another for New Jersey-to-New York. Check them out Here
Also we now provide Jason-1 Altimetry data overlaid on our Wavewatch III wave models. Take a look Here
Free Stormsurf Stickers - Get your free stickers! - More details Here
Read all the latest news and happenings on our News Page here
Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table