On Tuesday (6/27) Northern CA surf was thigh high, weak and wrapped in fog. South facing breaks in Santa Cruz were knee high. Central California surf was waist high. Southern CA breaks from Santa Barbara to just north of LA were thigh to waist high. The LA Area southward to Orange County was up into the waist to chest high range. Southward from Orange County into San Diego best breaks were waist to chest high on the sets. The North Shore of Oahu was flat. The South Shore was near flat. The East Shore was thigh high.
Summer doldrums. California was small today with best spots in the waist high range, maybe a little more. that's not saying much nor is much more forecast over the next few days. A small southern hemi swell is tracking towards the coast for late Friday into the weekend at least providing something to stand up on. And bigger but not necessarily better northwest windswell is expected next week. Today Hawaii was near flat on all shores with no real swell of interest hitting. A little pulse of southern hemi swell forecast for the weekend providing a hint of relief while east windswell moves on the Eastern Shore. Of interest is a moderately strong storm projected under New Zealand early to mid-next week targeting Hawaii and California, but it's a long ways off and far from certain to form. See details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
Tuesdays jetstream charts (6/27) indicated no support for surface level gale development for the next 7 days. Detailed monitoring for the North Pacific is now on an exception basis through the summer.
At the surface on Tuesday (6/27) weak high pressure was centered in the Gulf of Alaska ridging into northern Canada with a secondary high off Kamchatka. This high was generating weak to moderate trades over the Hawaiian Islands generating small short period windswell there. No other swell producing fetch was indicated. Over the next 72 hours through Friday (6/30) the Gulf high is to drift a bit east and become recentered more to the south continuing the trade fetch over the Hawaiian Islands and preparing to start sending some isobars over California, but not quite making it. No change in swell generation potential suggested.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
California Offshore Forecast
On Tuesday (6/27) high pressure at 1033 mbs was sitting in the Gulf of Alaska ridging into southwestern Canada and generating moderate 20-25 kt north winds generating weak and short period north windswell through generally calm windswell prevails southward from Cape Mendocino. this pattern to decay on Thursday and Friday with no winds of interest forecast off the US coast. By Saturday (7/1) new high pressure at 1025 mbs to start building off Central CA generating a new gradient and renewed northwest winds at 20-25 kts covering all of North and Central CA. These winds to continue well into the the following week, but lifting away from the coast south of Pt Reyes by Tuesday with a light eddy flow possibly building in behind (southwest winds).
The detailed 5 Day wind forecast is included with the surf & swell overview in the QuikCAST's.
Note: The data feed for our weather models is down due to problems with the server at the National Weather Service. The system to be restored sometime Wednesday (6/28).
On Tuesday (6/27) a fully split jetstream flow remained in-place over the entire South Pacific with the southern branch remaining weak (110 kts or less) and traversing the Ross Ice Shelf. A small trough was over the Southeastern Pacific, but no support for surface level gael development was suggested with winds being very weak in the area. The Northern branch remained dominant with winds 150 kts flowing zonally (flat) from off Australia into Chile. No significant troughs or areas of interest were visualized capable of supporting surface level storm or gale development. Over the next 72 hours the no real change is forecast other than a slight increase in winds speeds in the southern branch flowing under New Zealand to 120 kts. no support for surface level gale development.
At the surface on Tuesday (6/27) strong high pressure at 1028 mbs was centered over New Zealand ridging southeast to 60S suppressing the potential for storm development in this area. To the east a weak pressure pattern was in place with no support there either. Over the next 72 hours a tiny low is to try and organize in the Southeastern Pacific Thursday (6/29) (outside the Hawaiian swell window) generating 18 hours of 40 kts winds over a tiny area aimed north, then rapidly fading as it reaches the eastern edge of the California swell window. In all 25 ft seas to result, not enough to produce any swell of interest for California.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours the usual summer high pressure to continue off California pushing a bit closer and starting to support the production of north winds along the coast by Saturday (7/1) at 15-20 kts. Small short period windswell to begin arriving Sunday and continuing into the week ahead, but certainly not remarkable in any regard.The same trade wind induced windswell to continue along eastern shores of the Hawaiian Islands.
Beyond 72 hours high pressure to retain a lock on the Southwest Pacific east of New Zealand. The models suggest this to lift and favorable conditions to develop directly under New Zealand on Sunday (7/2) as a storm from under New Zealand pushes into the area. Winds of 40-45 kts with a tiny core to 50 kts to hold in the Hawaiian and California swell windows lifting northeast into Wednesday (7/5) generating a continuous moderate area of 39-40 kts seas targeting the 2 aforementioned location. There are issues with this system though for California, especially the north end of the state as things are modeled right now. That is Tahiti is to be sitting right in the middle of the swell window, likely shadowing a good bit of the resulting energy and thereby limiting swell size. Southern CA is looking to be much better positioned. Of course the odds of this system developing are remote this far into the future and based on previous history this season.
Details to follow...
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table