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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: June 25, 2006 12:09 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
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Swell Potential Rating = 1.9 - California & 1.5 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)
Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    
Issued for Week of Monday 6/26 thru Sun 7/2
Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Utility swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of Utility swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Calm Pattern In Control
South Pacific Essentially Asleep

 

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
On Sunday (6/25) Northern CA surf was waist to shoulder high and weak and only at the best spots. South facing breaks in Santa Cruz were near flat. Central California surf was maybe thigh high. Southern CA breaks from Santa Barbara to just north of LA were up to thigh high and weak. The LA Area southward to Orange County was up to waist high. Southward from Orange County into San Diego best breaks were waist to chest high on the sets. The North Shore of Oahu was flat. The South Shore was waist high with sets chest high at top spots. The East Shore was flat.

Things are pretty dismal across California this morning. The best spots in Southern California are seeing a little pulse of background swell from the South Pacific, expected to hold into Monday then fade out with nothing to back it up till maybe next weekend. North California has a little windswell in place at select breaks, but it's weak and crumbly. Today Hawaii was seeing the last little remnants of as swell from the Tasman Sea, but after that nothing is expected. Longterm the South Pacific is to remain locked down with a unfavorable jetstream flow aloft, directing most storms inland over Antarctica only tracking north into open ice free waters in the far east, well past the Hawaiian swell window but in California's. Unfortunately, only the weakest of gales is projected there a week out. So a generally flat trend is expected. See details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Sundays jetstream charts (6/25) indicated no support for surface level gale development for the next 7 days. Detailed monitoring for the North Pacific is now on an exception basis through the summer.

At the surface on Sunday (6/25) weak high pressure was well north of Hawaii ridging into Canada generating a weak fetch of 20 kt north winds off the Oregon coast. East trades along this highs southern flank we being generated west of Hawaii near the dateline, but nothing was blowing into the Islands. Over the next 72 hours through Wednesday (6/28) the high is to become a little bit more organized in the Gulf of Alaska generating north winds off Oregon to 25 kts by Tuesday and providing a hint more windswell pushing into the California coast. At the same time trades are to marginally return to Hawaii in the 15 kt range, not enough for any decent windswell. Otherwise no swell producing systems forecast.

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

California Offshore Forecast
On Sunday (6/25) high pressure at 1028 mbs was pushing into Canada with a second core well off the coast there and north of Hawaii. 20-25 kt north winds were still blowing off Oregon setting up small windswell for North and Central CA, but not much. Those winds to continue into early Wednesday (6/28) with some form of tiny windswell persisting. Calm winds south of Cape Mendocino forecast. A break for a day or two then north winds to rebuild centered near Cape Mendocino Friday (6/30) continuing through the weekend and pushing south and only at 15-20 kts, making for short period junky windswell and lumpy conditions from Pt Conception northward.

The detailed 5 Day wind forecast is included with the surf & swell overview in the QuikCAST's.

 

South Pacific

Overview
On Sunday (6/25) a fully split jetstream flow was in-place over the entire South Pacific with the southern branch being generally weak (100 kts or less) and traversing either the edge of the Antarctic Continent or pushing fully inland. Not encouraging. The Northern branch was dominant with winds 150 kts pushing near 190 kts flowing zonally (flat) from off Australia into Chile. No significant troughs or areas of interest were in place capable of supporting surface level storm or gale development. Over the next 72 hours the northern branch is to weaken some with the southern branch actually trying to push north near 130W, with a trough forming there by Wednesday (6/28). Winds to be light though at only 100 kts, not very supportive for gale development at the surface. Beyond 72 hours the pattern continues with a weak ill-defined trough in the far Southeast Pacific but the northern branch starting to get more momentum by Thursday (6/29). By next weekend that trough to be pushing well towards Chile and out of the California swell window, with a moderately strong flow pushing over the Ross Ice Shelf back to the west. No support for surface level gale development suggested.

At the surface on Sunday (6/25) a weak 984 mb low was in the Southeast Pacific with high pressure at 1028 mbs over New Zealand. No swell producing fetch was indicated. A low developed south of Tahiti Fri (6/23) generating a weak area of 25 ft seas pushing to 28 ft Saturday at 40S 135W, less that expected. Maybe some tiny background swell to result for California but Hawaii to be out of the mix because the fetch is too far east. Over the next 72 hours near placid conditions forecast with no real swell producing fetch suggested.

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours generic high pressure to continue in the Gulf of Alaska providing a light north flow along the Pacific Northwest coast into early Saturday (7/1) and light 15 kt trades over Hawaii. Minimal support for tiny windswell both locations.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a solid gale is forecast late Wednesday (6/28) developing on the edge of the Ross Ice Shelf and just east of the dateline tracking northeast fast as it moves under strong high pressure at 1032 mbs centered in the Central Pacific. Thursday (6/29) winds to be 45-50 kt pushing northeast targeting California and Central America fading to 35-40 kts Friday as it moved into the Southeast Pacific. Seas modeled at 30 ft late Thursday at 63S 140W continuing into early Saturday at 52S 120W. Confidence low in this actually occurring at this time. Nothing lese modeled behind it.

Details to follow...


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Local Interest

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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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