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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: June 25, 2005 5:42 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
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Swell Potential Rating = 3.8 - California & 4.5 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)
Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    
Issued for Week of Monday 6/20 thru Sun 6/26
Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Utility swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of Utility swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Swell #4S Hits Hawaii
Calm Pattern Over South Pacific

 

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
On Saturday (6/25) Northern CA surf was knee high and gutless. South facing breaks were maybe waist high. Central California was waist high on the biggest sets. Southern CA breaks from Santa Barbara to just north of LA were thigh high. The LA area southward into Orange County was waist high. Southward to San Diego waves were waist high. The North Shore of Oahu was flat. The South Shore was waist to maybe chest high and fading. The East Shore was waist high.

California was basically flat while Hawaii was getting Swell #4S, and that is all there is so so make the most of it. The South Pacific storm pattern is really weak with nothing of interest on the charts until about a week out. And even that is highly speculative so don't bet on it yet. See details below...

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SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
At the jetstream level on Saturday (6/25) a very weak trough was hanging over the dateline with winds about 60 kts. A big ridge was in place in the East Pacific but had no real windspeed to work with (animation here). Over the next 72 hours both the the trough over the dateline and the ridge in the east are to wither away to near nothing with the jet almost disappearing.

At the surface today solid high pressure at 1028 mbs was centered in the Gulf of Alaska providing moderate trade winds over the Hawaiian Islands and a light northwesterly flow along the California coast. A weak 1004 mb low was riding up the northwest side of the high. No swell generation potential was suggested other than some minor windswell off the south side of the high for Hawaii's eastern shores (animation here). Over the next 72 hours the high is to hold it's position and be joined by another high building over the dateline. But no net change is forecast in the surf generation potential. Otherwise a weak low at 992 mbs is to push off Japan tracking east. A generally quiet pattern to persist.

Mini dateline low for Hawaii: In the West Pacific on Tuesday (6/21) an extratropical low approached the dateline from off Japan with confirmed winds 35-45 kts over a tiny area in it's southwest quadrant aimed well at Hawaii, but a long ways away. The low is to max out Tuesday night just before reaching the dateline with pressure 988 mbs and winds confirmed at 40-45 kts aimed right at Hawaii. A rapid decline set in Wednesday AM (6/22) with the gale fading away totally by nightfall. Some 13-14 sec period windswell is possible for northwest facing shores of the Hawaiian Islands starting Saturday AM (6/25) peaking near sunset at 2 ft @ 13 secs (2-3 ft faces) with residuals expected though Sunday (6/26) then fading out.

 

More model data here

 

California Offshore Forecast
Saturday mornings local charts (6/25) indicate solid high pressure at 1030 mbs anchored in the southern Gulf of Alaska and ridging south into Hawaii but not towards California. No pressure gradient or winds of interest were blowing along the California coast. High pressure is to persist north east of Hawaii through Wednesday (6/29) but rather than being aligned north-south it is to get squeezed west to east as a moderate low rides over the top of the high on Tuesday (6/28). Remnants of the high are to drift east forming a weak gradient over the Cape Mendocino area for Friday (7/1) with north winds 25 kts and building to 30 kts on Saturday
producing some short period windswell or possibly more for the weekend.

The 5 Day wind forecast is now included with the surf & swell overview in the QuikCAST's.

 

South Pacific

Overview
On Saturday (6/25) the jetstream charts continued indicating a large and strong ridge was in-place just southeast of New Zealand pushing hard south into Antarctica while sweeping to the east nearly to Chile, eliminating any chance for storm development in that area. A very small trough was trying to build in behind the ridge under New Zealand, but it was hardly noticeable (animation here). Over the next 72 hours the dominant ridge is to drive deep into Antarctica with a secondary ridge building in the northern branch of the jetstream eliminating any chance for low pressure in the central and eastern South Pacific. The trough under New Zealand is to open up some and move east, but no decent winds are forecast to be supporting it. No net benefit towards storm production suggested.

At the surface today high pressure at 1024 mbs controlled the Central South Pacific ridging strongly into the the Amundsen Sea (East Pacific) and eastward to the southern tip of Chile. This was shunting all eastward moving low pressure tracking east from under New Zealand into Antarctica. A 972 mb low that tracked from Tasmania to under New Zealand was being sheared apart by the strong upper level jet ripping through the area (animation here). Over the next 72 hours several gales are to track under New Zealand towards the open waters of the South Pacific, but all are to share a similar fate, namely shearing by the strong upper level winds. No hope for storm development through Tuesday (6/28).

More model data here

 

Chilean Low (South CA)
On Monday evening (6/20) a 984 mb low started to congeal from the remains of Storm #4S well west of the Chilean coast while high pressure built in the Central South Pacific at 1032 mbs. A tiny fetch of 50 kt winds were confirmed near 45S 118W aimed northeast up the 180 degree path to South CA but outside the NCal swell window. On Tuesday AM (6/21) the fetch build some more as pressure dropped to 976 mbs with winds 50 to near 60 kts over a tiny area centered at 42N 118W and aimed more easterly, 45 degree east of the 180 degree path to SCal. This fetch moved quickly to the storms north quadrant by early Wednesday (6/22) at 40-50 kts centered over a tiny area at 39S 115W taking aim on South America and pushing out of even the Southern CA swell window. Seas were modeled at 31 ft over an infinitesimally small area centered at 39S 116W late Tuesday (6/21) holding for 24 hours then fading but moving out of the California swell window Wednesday AM (6/22). This system has the potential to provide limited swell for only the most exposed south facing breaks in Southern CA. Will post swell heights for SCal in the QuikCASTs.

 

Storm #4S
On Thursday AM (6/16) a new low was developing in the deep central South Pacific off the eastern Ross Ice Shelf in the trough present in the upper levels of the atmosphere. Pressure was 968 mbs with winds confirmed at 40-45 kts over a moderate area centered at 60S 165W aimed at California up the 200 degree path and 30 degrees east of the 185 degree path to Hawaii. These winds were imbedded in a broader area of 35-40 kts winds aimed the same way. Seas were building. In the evening pressure was down to 958 mbs with winds confirmed at 45-55 kts over a elongated area centered at 56S 156W aimed 20 degrees east of the 200 degree great circle path to California and 40 degree east of the 178 degree path to Hawaii. Seas were still not of interest yet but were on the increase.

On Friday AM (6/17) pressure was down to 956 mbs with winds 40-45 kts centered at 58S 158W aimed more to the north or 10 degrees west of the 198 degree path to California and right up the 180 degree path to HAwaii. Seas built to 30 ft centered at 148W 53S, mostly from the previous days fetch and a bit out of the Hawaiian swell window. In the evening pressure was down to 952 mbs with winds confirmed at 40-45 kts solid centered at 54S 150W over a moderate area aimed right up the 198 degree path to California and 30 degrees east of the 176 degree path to Hawaii. Seas held at 31 ft centered at 53S 151W over a moderate area imbedded in a broad area of lesser seas.

On Saturday AM (6/18) pressure was 950 mbs with winds confirmed at 45-50 kts centered at 58S 147W aimed right up the 195 degree path to California and 40 degrees east of the 175 degree path to Hawaii. Seas were modeled at 29 ft and holding over a broad area centered at 50S 147W. In the evening pressure was 948 mbs with winds holding at 45-50 kts centered at 58S 143W aimed like before. Seas were modeled at 31 ft centered at 57S 145W.

On Sunday (6/19) this system is to rapidly deteriorate with no swell producing fetch forecast. Residual seas from the previous days fetch were 31 ft centered at 55S 140W and fading fast. No seas of winds of interest were left by evening.

On Wednesday (6/22) this swell hit buoy 51028 on the equator and reasonably well positioned to gauge swell size for Hawaii. Swell peaked at 0Z Thursday (6/23) with pure swell 4.5-5.0 ft @ 15 secs, about 1 ft less than hoped for.

This system was interesting, though not as strong as originally hoped for. The short story is that everyone from Hawaii eastward to California down to Central America is to get some decent swell from this system. The broadest fetch was aimed best at California and targets to the south. But the most intense fetch covering a much smaller area was aimed more to the north right at Hawaii with lesser sideband energy backing it up. It was about normal distance from both the Islands (4329-4692 nmiles) and California too (5243-5621 nmiles). Good swell generation potential for all locations from Hawaii, Tahiti into California and Central America is expected.

Hawaii: Swell to hold solid on Saturday (6/25) with swell 4.3 ft @ 15 secs holding through day (6.0-6.5 ft faces - best breaks to nearly 8 ft on the face though this estimate is probably high). A bit of a decline expected on Sunday (6/26) with a little more period building underneath at 15-16 secs. Swell 4 ft @ 13-14 secs (5.0-5.5 ft faces). Swell to slowly decline Monday (6/27) with swell 3 ft @ 13 secs (3.5-4.0 ft faces), dropping Tuesday (6/28) to 2.6 ft @ 12 secs (2.5-3.0 ft faces) and fading out totally late Wednesday. Swell Direction: 175-180 degrees

South California: Expect swell arrival starting Saturday sunrise (6/25) with period at 18 secs and size tiny but building through the day with swell at sunset 3.6 ft @ 17+ secs (6.0-6.5 ft faces - best breaks to near 8 ft faces though this estimate is probably high). Peak size to hit near sunrise Sunday (6/26) with swell 3.9 ft @ 16 secs (6.0-6.5 ft faces - best breaks to near 8 ft faces). Another small pulse to build in on Monday morning (6/27) with period at 16-17 secs. Swell 5 ft @ 15 secs (6-7 ft faces - best breaks to 7 ft). Decent size to continue on Tuesday (6/28) with swell 5 ft @ 15 secs (6-7 ft faces). Energy starting to fade out into Wednesday (6/29) with period turning to a pure 14 secs. Swell Direction: 192-200 degrees

North California: Expect swell arrival starting Saturday at sunset (6/25) with period at 18 secs and size tiny but building overnight. Solid size to be hitting near mid-morning Sunday (6/26) with swell near 3.6 ft @ 17 secs (5.5-6.0 ft faces - best breaks to near 8 ft faces though this estimate is probably high), perhaps building a little more during the day. Size holding into Monday morning (6/27) with a new pulse building underneath after sunset at 16-17 secs. Swell 4.3 ft @ 15 secs (6.0-6.5 ft faces - best breaks to 7.5 ft). Solid size to continue on Tuesday (6/28) with swell 4.3 ft @ 14-15 secs (5.5-6.0 ft faces). Energy fading out late Wednesday (6/29) as period turns to pure 14 secs. Swell Direction: 190-198 degrees

 

QuikCAST

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Saturdays upper level models (6/25) indicated that beyond 72 hours a near nonexistent pattern is to persist. The only even defined feature is to be a very weak trough just off the Kurils. None of this is to have any manifestation at the surface.

At the surface low pressure off Japan is to build to 988 mbs with a brief burst of 35 kts winds forecast early Wednesday (6/29) aimed towards Hawaii, but way too far away to have any direct impact. The low is to dissipate within 24 hours while tracking north east. Of more interest is that high pressure that has been so dominant in the east is to dissipate with a weak low setting up in the Gulf of Alaska on Saturday (7/2) with 25 kt winds aimed towards California. Doubtful this will actually happen, but it's worth watching.

 

South Pacific

Saturdays upper level models (6/25) indicated that beyond 72 hours strong high pressure associated with ridges in both the north and southern branches of the jetstream are to retain control of the Southeast Pacific to near the Chilean coast through Thursday (6/30). The trough southeast of New Zealand is to get remain weak and ineffective until Saturday (7/2) when it finally gets a foothold and clears out the bulk of the South Pacific, with so storm support suggested starting then.

At the surface waves of low pressure are to continue pushing under New Zealand but remain generally unorganized. By Wednesday (6/29) there some indication that they are to start getting a decent foothold under and east of New Zealand as high pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere clears out. It's way too early to place any stock in this outcome, but the trend is mildly encouraging. Meanwhile in the east strong high pressure is to be building to 1036 mbs in the waters southwest of Chile.

Details to follow...


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Local Interest

El Nino Forecast Updated: Check out all the latest indicators to get a handle on how the Summer and Fall seasons could unfold. http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/enso/current.shtml

Big Florida Swell: A strong gale pushed off Cape Hatteras on 4/15 generating solid seas and a 70 ft rogue wave that hit a cruise ship before proceeded south to make solid waves for the Southeast US coast. Matt Kechele was there to catch it. Take a look here: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/forecast/forecast/kechele.html

Stormsurf Weather Models Updated Again: Yes, we've been at it again this weekend getting another batch of weather models running. Global coverage is now provided for jetstream forecasts and surface pressure and winds. Zoomed in data is also available for such locations as the Mentawai Islands to Western Australia corridor, Tahiti, South America, Europe and Norwegian Sea. So now you can get local wind forecasts for these and more locations with one click. Take a look here: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu.html

Read all the latest news and happenings on our News Page here

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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