On Thursday (6/23) Northern CA surf was waist high and gutless. South facing breaks were waist high on the sets. Central California was waist high on the sets. Southern CA breaks from Santa Barbara to just north of LA were about flat with best breaks rarely waist high. The LA area southward into Orange County was waist high with best breaks chest high. Southward to San Diego waves were waist to maybe chest high. The North Shore of Oahu was flat. The South Shore was waist to maybe chest high and fading. The East Shore was waist high.
Things really settling down at all locations with no.cgiace a standout, though Hawaii's southern shores still had some fun surf. Of far more interest is new Swell #4S schedule for Hawaii by the end of the workweek and moving into California by late in the weekend. there's a bit of concern because this swell did not show as strong as anticipated coming over the equator though. See details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis.cgius forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
At the jetstream level on Thursday (6/23) a bit of a trough remained hanging off the Kuril Islands reaching to the dateline with winds about 100 kts. A ridge was in.cgiace in the East Pacific (animation here). Over the next 72 hours the trough in the West Pacific fade to nothing while the ridge in the east builds to nearly Alaska.
At the surface today strong high pressure at 1028 mbs was centered in the Gulf of Alaska providing light trade winds over the Hawaiian Islands and a moderate northwesterly flow along the California coast. In the West Pacific a weak 1000 mb low was approaching the dateline but exhibited no swell producing potential (animation here). Over the next 72 hours the high is to hold it's strength but retrograde tot he west, easing pressure on the US West Coast and reducing the northwest winds there while providing slight improvement for tradewind swell potential in Hawaii. Otherwise no weather features of interest forecast.
Mini dateline low for Hawaii: In the West Pacific on Tuesday (6/21) an extratropical low approached the dateline from off Japan with confirmed winds 35-45 kts over a tiny area in it's southwest quadrant aimed well at Hawaii, but a long ways away. The low is to max out Tuesday night just before reaching the dateline with pressure 988 mbs and winds confirmed at 40-45 kts aimed right at Hawaii. A rapid decline set in Wednesday AM (6/22) with the gale fading away totally by nightfall. Some 13-14 sec period windswell is possible for northwest facing shores of the Hawaiian Islands starting Saturday AM (6/25) peaking near sunset at 2 ft @ 13 secs (2-3 ft faces) with residuals expected though Sunday (6/26) then fading out.
More model data here
California Offshore Forecast
Thursday mornings local charts (6/23) indicate solid pressure at 1028 mbs anchored in the eastern Gulf of Alaska and trying to ridge into Washington. A light pressure gradient was trying to develop centered near Cape Mendocino, but there was not any low pressure inland to really get the north winds there moving. A tiny area of 30 kt north winds were imaged along the coast there but the models suggest that the high is to retrograde to the west and the difference in pressure between the high over the ocean and lesser pressure inland is to fade. This means north winds over the Cape are to slacken as well, and windswell generation potential is to fade. High pressure is to persist north east of Hawaii through next week with one bit of low pressure riding over the top of the high on Sunday (6/26) then pushing down the Pacific Northwest coast and moving inland over Oregon on Monday (6/27). Some variation in windswell height expected in sync with the strength of the Cape Mendocino gradient, but nothing noteworthy suggested. A generally steady 20 kt northwest flow forecast over the outer waters.
The 5 Day wind forecast is now included with the surf & swell overview in the QuikCAST's.
On Thursday (6/23) the jetstream charts indicated that a large and strong ridge had developed just southeast of new Zealand pushing hard south into Antarctica, eliminating any chance for storm development in that area. No other potential energy to support storm development were indicated (animation here). Over the next 72 hours this strong ridge is to sweep east over Antarctica eliminating any low pressure in it's path. But behind it a trough is expected to develop under New Zealand, but fading fast as it tracks east through Sunday (6/26). No support for any lasting storm development suggested.
At the surface today high pressure at 1028 mbs controlled the central South Pacific and was ridging into the the Ross Ice Shelf. This was shunting all eastward moving low pressure tracking east from under New Zealand into Antarctica though there was a little larger gap there than before. A new small but reasonably strong 972 mb storm was organizing under Tasmania tracking east with winds at 50-55 kts aimed east (animation here). Over the next 72 hours this storm is to hit the effects of high pressure as it pushes east under New Zealand and rapidly deteriorates, just as it's fetch is starting to push up a tiny area of 30 ft seas. By Friday night (6/24) the storm is to be sheared by the strong upper level flow with no swell producing fetch left at the surface. Some hope is suggested with weak low pressure trying to rebuild southeast of New Zealand late in the period (Sunday 6/26).
More model data here
Chilean Low (South CA)
On Monday evening (6/20) a 984 mb low started to congeal from the remains of Storm #4S well west of the Chilean coast while high pressure built in the Central South Pacific at 1032 mbs. A tiny fetch of 50 kt winds were confirmed near 45S 118W aimed northeast up the 180 degree path to South CA but outside the NCal swell window. On Tuesday AM (6/21) the fetch build some more as pressure dropped to 976 mbs with winds 50 to near 60 kts over a tiny area centered at 42N 118W and aimed more easterly, 45 degree east of the 180 degree path to SCal. This fetch moved quickly to the storms north quadrant by early Wednesday (6/22) at 40-50 kts centered over a tiny area at 39S 115W taking aim on South America and pushing out of even the Southern CA swell window. Seas were modeled at 31 ft over an infinitesimally small area centered at 39S 116W late Tuesday (6/21) holding for 24 hours then fading but moving out of the California swell window Wednesday AM (6/22). This system has the potential to provide limited swell for only the most exposed south facing breaks in Southern CA. Will post swell heights for SCal in the QuikCASTs.
On Thursday AM (6/16) a new low was developing in the deep central South Pacific off the eastern Ross Ice Shelf in the trough present in the upper levels of the atmosphere. Pressure was 968 mbs with winds confirmed at 40-45 kts over a moderate area centered at 60S 165W aimed at California up the 200 degree path and 30 degrees east of the 185 degree path to Hawaii. These winds were imbedded in a broader area of 35-40 kts winds aimed the same way. Seas were building. In the evening pressure was down to 958 mbs with winds confirmed at 45-55 kts over a elongated area centered at 56S 156W aimed 20 degrees east of the 200 degree great circle path to California and 40 degree east of the 178 degree path to Hawaii. Seas were still not of interest yet but were on the increase.
On Friday AM (6/17) pressure was down to 956 mbs with winds 40-45 kts centered at 58S 158W aimed more to the north or 10 degrees west of the 198 degree path to California and right up the 180 degree path to HAwaii. Seas built to 30 ft centered at 148W 53S, mostly from the previous days fetch and a bit out of the Hawaiian swell window. In the evening pressure was down to 952 mbs with winds confirmed at 40-45 kts solid centered at 54S 150W over a moderate area aimed right up the 198 degree path to California and 30 degrees east of the 176 degree path to Hawaii. Seas held at 31 ft centered at 53S 151W over a moderate area imbedded in a broad area of lesser seas.
On Saturday AM (6/18) pressure was 950 mbs with winds confirmed at 45-50 kts centered at 58S 147W aimed right up the 195 degree path to California and 40 degrees east of the 175 degree path to Hawaii. Seas were modeled at 29 ft and holding over a broad area centered at 50S 147W. In the evening pressure was 948 mbs with winds holding at 45-50 kts centered at 58S 143W aimed like before. Seas were modeled at 31 ft centered at 57S 145W.
On Sunday (6/19) this system is to rapidly deteriorate with no swell producing fetch forecast. Residual seas from the previous days fetch were 31 ft centered at 55S 140W and fading fast. No seas of winds of interest were left by evening.
On Wednesday (6/22) this swell hit buoy 51028 on the equator and reasonably well positioned to gauge swell size for Hawaii. Swell peaked at 0Z Thursday (6/23) with pure swell 4.5-5.0 ft @ 15 secs, about 1 ft less than hoped for.
This system was interesting, though not as strong as originally hoped for. The short story is that everyone from Hawaii eastward to California down to Central America is to get some decent swell from this system. The broadest fetch was aimed best at California and targets to the south. But the most intense fetch covering a much smaller area was aimed more to the north right at Hawaii with lesser sideband energy backing it up. It was about normal distance from both the Islands (4329-4692 nmiles) and California too (5243-5621 nmiles). Good swell generation potential for all locations from Hawaii, Tahiti into California and Central America is expected.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival starting in the early morning hours of Friday (6/24) with size tiny and period at 17-18 secs, on the increase through the day. Swell peaking right at sunset at 4.3 ft @ 16 secs (6-7 ft faces with best breaks to near 9 ft). Swell to hold solid on Saturday (6/25) with swell 4.3 ft @ 15 secs holding through day (6.0-6.5 ft faces - best breaks to nearly 8 ft on the face though this estimate is probably high). A bit of a decline expected on Sunday (6/26) with a little more period building underneath at 15-16 secs. Swell 4 ft @ 13-14 secs (5.0-5.5 ft faces). Swell to slowly decline Monday (6/27) with swell 3 ft @ 13 secs (3.5-4.0 ft faces), dropping Tuesday (6/28) to 2.6 ft @ 12 secs (2.5-3.0 ft faces) and fading out totally late Wednesday. Swell Direction: 175-180 degrees
South California: Expect swell arrival starting Saturday sunrise (6/25) with period at 18 secs and size tiny but building through the day with swell at sunset 3.6 ft @ 17+ secs (6.0-6.5 ft faces - best breaks to near 8 ft faces though this estimate is probably high). Peak size to hit near sunrise Sunday (6/26) with swell 3.9 ft @ 16 secs (6.0-6.5 ft faces - best breaks to near 8 ft faces). Another small pulse to build in on Monday morning (6/27) with period at 16-17 secs. Swell 5 ft @ 15 secs (6-7 ft faces - best breaks to 7 ft). Decent size to continue on Tuesday (6/28) with swell 5 ft @ 15 secs (6-7 ft faces). Energy starting to fade out into Wednesday (6/29) with period turning to a pure 14 secs. Swell Direction: 192-200 degrees
North California: Expect swell arrival starting Saturday at sunset (6/25) with period at 18 secs and size tiny but building overnight. Solid size to be hitting near mid-morning Sunday (6/26) with swell near 3.6 ft @ 17 secs (5.5-6.0 ft faces - best breaks to near 8 ft faces though this estimate is probably high), perhaps building a little more during the day. Size holding into Monday morning (6/27) with a new pulse building underneath after sunset at 16-17 secs. Swell 4.3 ft @ 15 secs (6.0-6.5 ft faces - best breaks to 7.5 ft). Solid size to continue on Tuesday (6/28) with swell 4.3 ft @ 14-15 secs (5.5-6.0 ft faces). Energy fading out late Wednesday (6/29) as period turns to pure 14 secs. Swell Direction: 190-198 degrees
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Thursdays upper level models (6/23) indicated that beyond 72 hours a very weak pattern is to persist. A ridge is expected to continue in the Gulf of Alaska, but otherwise nothing of interest suggested. The jetstream itself is to whither to near nothing as would be expected for the time of year.
At the surface high pressure is to retain it's control of the Gulf of Alaska at 1028 mbs with a second high building over the dateline early next week. The pair are to be positioned far enough north and west to not have much windswell generation potential for either Hawaii or California.
Thursdays upper level models (6/23) indicated that beyond 72 hours strong high pressure associated with the ridge is to retain control of the Southeast PAcific to Chile. The trough southeast of New Zealand is to get reinforcements from the Indian Ocean early next week potentially expanding it's coverage and strength northward to a point east of New Zealand. decent potential for something to develop at the surface there continuing late into the workweek next week.
At the surface low pressure is to continue to fester east of New Zealand but remain generally unorganized. Wave after wave of low pressure is to ri.cgie east under and eventually over New Zealand moving into the upper trough east of there, providing some hope that a storm of interest will eventually coalesce in this area, though nothing solid is yet depicted on the models. Meanwhile in the east strong high pressure is to be building to 1040 mbs totally locking down the waters southwest of Chile.
Details to follow...
El Nino Forecast Updated: Check out all the latest indicators to get a handle on how the Summer and Fall seasons could unfold. http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/enso/current.shtml
Big Florida Swell: A strong gale pushed off Cape Hatteras on 4/15 generating solid seas and a 70 ft rogue wave that hit a cruise ship before proceeded south to make solid waves for the Southeast US coast. Matt Kechele was there to catch it. Take a look here: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/forecast/forecast/kechele.html
Stormsurf Weather Models Updated Again: Yes, we've been at it again this weekend getting another batch of weather models running. Global coverage is now provided for jetstream forecasts and surface pressure and winds. Zoomed in data is also available for such locations as the Mentawai Islands to Western Australia corridor, Tahiti, South America, Europe and Norwegian Sea. So now you can get local wind forecasts for these and more locations with one click. Take a look here: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu.html
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table