Thursday, June 22, 2017
- Buoy 146 (Lanai): This buoy is down and there is no backup site and no date if or when it will return to service. Buoy 233/51211 (Pearl Harbor) is available but has a new frequency layout. We'll have to code a new program to read it's output (date TBD).
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.7 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 2.5 ft @ 14.1 secs from 156 degrees. Wind at the buoy were southeast 6-10 kts. Water temperature 66.6 degs. At Ventura (Buoy 111) swell was 2.2 ft @ 8.8 secs from 273 degrees. At Santa Monica (Buoy 028) swell was 1.7 ft @ 17.1 secs from 205 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (Buoy 043) swell was 2.2 ft @ 16.9 secs from 214 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (Buoy 191) swell was 3.3 ft @ 14.9 secs from 180 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 8.9 ft @ 10.8 secs with swell 6.5 ft @ 11.4 secs from 315 degrees. Wind at the buoy was southeast 8-10 kts. Water temp 55.4 degs.
46006, 46059, Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Thursday (6/22) in North and Central CA local north windswell was producing surf at head high and warbled with a light southwest flow adding some bump. Protected breaks were waist high clean early. At Santa Cruz New Zealand swell was hitting producing surf at chest to head high with sets 1 ft overhead and clean. In Southern California up north local windswell was hitting producing waves waist to maybe chest high and clean. In North Orange Co New Zealand swell was producing surf at head high and pretty textured from southerly wind. In South Orange Co Chilean swell and New Zealand swell was producing waves at 2-3 ft overhead and lined up and clean but a bit soft and shifty. In San Diego southwest swell was producing surf at head high with clean conditions. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was getting fading southern hemi swell with sets chest to head high and clean but smaller than days past. The East Shore was getting minimal east windswell with waves thigh high and chopped from modest east trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Thursday (6/22) moderate local north windswell was hitting North and Central California. Also southern hemi swell was hitting California and Hawaii attributable to 2 systems: A small weather system developed just east of New Zealand Tues-Wed (6/14) with up to 37 ft seas tracking northeast. Also swell was hitting California from a small gale that developed off Chile on Wed (6/14) with 28 ft seas aimed north. Otherwise another swell is tracking northeast from a system that developed under New Zealand on Mon (6/19) with up to 43 ft seas aimed east. A cutoff low previously forecast for the Southeast Pacific that was to produce 37 ft seas aimed at Hawaii Sun-Mon (6/26) has disappeared from the charts.
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Thursday (6/22) high pressure at 1028 mbs was 500 nmiles west of Oregon ridging into the Pacific Northwest generating a pressure gradient and 35 kt north-northeast winds focused over North CA resulting in moderate local northwest windswell down into North and Central CA. An eddy flow was over all of Central CA. This high was too far east to produce even 15 kt trades relative to the east shores of Hawaii with no windswell of interest occurring there.
Over the next 72 hours the high pressure system is to fade with the gradient and north winds dropping from 30 kts early Friday and then dissipating by Sat AM (6/24) with northerly winds down to 20 kts and that fetch tracking west resulting in quickly fading north windswell for California.
For Hawaii trades to remain weak at less than 15 kts and no meaningful windswell resulting through Sunday (6/25).
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.
California Nearshore Forecast
On Thursday (6/22) high pressure at 1030 mbs was ridging into British Columbia positioned 500 nmiles west of Oregon generating a pressure gradient and north winds at 35 kts over Cape Mendocino producing local north windswell with a weak eddy flow (south winds) along the immediate coast of Central CA northward to nearly Pt Arena. The gradient is to start fading in coverage through the day. Fri (6/23) north winds to continue over Cape Mendocino at 30 kts early fading to 25 kts later with the eddy flow holding south of there. Sat (6/24) the gradient is to fade from 20 kts limited to waters of South Oregon with the fetch drifting west and the eddy flow holding for CA. Sunday (6/25) a northwest flow is to set up for Pt Conception at 15-20 kts but 10 kts or less elsewhere. More of the same through Tuesday but with high pressure at 1030 mbs in the Central Gulf of Alaska poised to ridge east. That high is to impact the coast Wed (6/28) with north winds building to 25 kts over Cape Mendocino and 15 kts down to Pt Conception and the Channel Islands continuing Thurs (6/29).
On Thursday AM (6/22) the southern branch of the jet was ridging southeast under New Zealand with winds weak at 100 kts and continuing to be displaced south down at 68S across the width of the South Pacific and effectively over Antarctic Ice offering no support for gale development. The northern branch was tracking east generally on the 32S latitude line and also displaced south. Over the next 72 hours the ridge is to only build over the Southwest Pacific Ocean tracking into Antarctica and not exiting north until a point south of South America through Sun (6/25) offering no support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours Mon (6/26) a well split zonal flow is to continue with the northern branch tracking east on the 30N latitude line and the southern branch ridging to the south tracking east on the 70S latitude line with virtually no troughs forecast and no support for gale development forecast.
On Thursday (6/20) swell generated from a gale that tracked northeast along the New Zealand Coast was fading in Hawaii and starting to hit California (see Second New Zealand Storm below). Also swell from a small gale that developed off Chile was hitting exposed breaks in South California (see Chilean Gale below). Another gale developed southeast of New Zealand generating yet another swell pushing northeast (see 3rd New Zealand Gale below).
Otherwise no swell producing fetch was occurring.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
Second New Zealand Storm
Another gale developed well south of Tasmania on Mon AM (6/12) with 40 kt southwest winds starting to get traction on the oceans surface. By evening a fetch of 45 kt southwest winds was lifting northeast with seas building to 30 ft at 52S 155E and shadowed by New Zealand for CA and HI. On Tues AM (6/13) the storm was lifting northeast and centered just southeast of New Zealand with winds to 50 kts from the south with seas building from 32 ft at 50S 170E but covering only a small area. On Tues PM (6/13) a small fetch of 45-50 kt south winds is to be pushing north just east of the New Zealand coast with 37 ft seas at 46S 175.5E (221 degs SCal, 220 degs NCal, 201 degs HI). On Wed AM (6/14) fetch was fading from 40 kts off North New Zealand generating 33 ft seas at 40.5S 180W. In the evening south winds were fading from 35 kts with seas fading from 25 ft at 37S 175W. This system is to be gone on Thurs AM (6/15).
Possible solid short lived swell for Tahiti given it's close proximity there. A decent pulse of energy is possible for Hawaii too. Lesser energy for the US West Coast given the small fetch size of this system and longer travel distance.
A secondary pulse of low pressure developed just southeast of New Zealand Thurs PM (6/15) with 40-45 kt south winds and seas to 24 ft at 49S 175W. That fetch lifted north Fri AM (6/16) at 35-40 kts aimed due north with seas peaking at 27 ft at 49S 167W. 35 kt south fetch continuing into the evening with barely 28 ft seas at 46S 164S. This system faded out from there. No swell to result expect for Tahiti.
Hawaii: Swell fading on Thurs (6/22) from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 200 degrees
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival Wed PM (6/21) with period 20 secs and size tiny. Swell building on Thurs (6/22) to 1.5 ft @ 17-18 secs late (2.5 ft). Swell building on Fri (6/23) to 1.8 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.0 ft). Swell holding on Sat (6/24) at 2.1 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 222 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival Thurs AM (6/22) building to 1 ft @ 18 secs late (2.0 ft). Swell building on Fri (6/23) to 1.8 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.0 ft). Swell holding on Sat (6/24) at 1.7 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft).Swell Direction: 220 degrees
On Mon PM (6/13) a gale started developing off Southern Chile producing 35 kts southeast winds and seas building from 25 ft at 39S 105W aimed decently north. More of the same continued Tues AM (6/13) with seas fading from 24 ft at 38S 104W. In the evening winds built to 40 kts from the southeast lifting north with seas 27 ft at 34S 101W aimed north. Fetch continued but was fading some at 40 kts Wed AM (6/14) with seas 27 ft at 30S 100W aimed due north. Fetch started fading in the evening with seas dropping from 26 ft at 32S 95W. The gale faded from there. Small southeast angled swell is possible for Southern California with more directly energy targeting Mainland Mexico.
Southern CA: Swell continues on Tues (6/20) at 2.3 ft @ 13-14 secs (3.0 ft) with a second pulse arriving later afternoon building to 3.2 ft @ 16 secs late (5.0 ft). Swell continues Wed (6/21) at 3.2 ft @ 14-15 secs (4.5 ft). Swell fading Thurs (6/22) from 3.0 ft @ 14 secs (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 175 degrees moving to 165 degrees.
North CA: Swell continues on Tues (6/20) at 2.0 ft @ 13 secs (2.5 ft) with a second pulse arriving later afternoon building to 2.0 ft @ 16 secs late (3.0 ft). Swell continues Wed (6/21) at 3.0 ft @ 15 secs (4.5 ft). Swell fading Thurs (6/22) from 2.8 ft @ 14 secs (4.0 ft). Residuals on Fri (6/23) (2.5 ft @ 13 secs (3.0-3.5 ft) Swell Direction: 175 degrees moving to 165 degrees.
3rd New Zealand Gale
On Sun (6/18) a storm started developing southeast of Tasmania with 55 kt west winds and seas building from 35 ft over a tiny area at 54S 150E and shadowed by New Zealand relative to NCal and HI and barely in the 222 degs window for SCal. Winds held at 55 kts from the west on Mon AM (6/19) but with the fetch falling east-southeast with seas 38 ft at 57.5S 166E (214 degs SCal and shadowed by Tahiti, 214 degs and unshadowed for NCal, and clear and in the 200 degs window for Hawaii). Fetch was 50 kts in the evening from the southwest and still falling east-southeast with seas to 43 ft at 59.5S 177E aimed east (208 degs NCal and shadowed, 209 degs SCal and barely unshadowed,192 degs HI). On Tues AM (6/20) fetch was fading from 40 kts with seas fading from 37 ft at 61S 171.5W (203 degs NCal and unshadowed, 204 degs SCal and unshadowed, 187 degs HI). This system is to be gone by evening.
This system had solid winds and seas, but was tracking east-southeast with not much momentum aimed northeast, thereby limited swell size traveling in that direction and towards our forecast area.
No swell to reach up into the Hawaii swell window.
Southern CA: Swell arrival expected Wed AM (6/28) with period 20 secs and size imperceptible. On Thurs (6/29) swell to build to 1.6 ft @ 18 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 213 degrees.
Northern CA: Swell arrival expected Wed AM (6/28) with period 20 secs and size imperceptible. On Thurs (6/29) swell to build to 1.5 ft @ 18 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 214 degrees.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours a light pressure and wind pattern is forecast for the US West Coast through Tues (6/27). Starting Wednesday (6/28) high pressure is to again regenerate off Oregon and North CA with the gradient redeveloping over Cape Mendocino with north winds 25 kts there and windswell building modestly and holding into Thurs (6/29). Northwest winds at 15 kts to be impacting the coast down to Pt Conception.
For Hawaii trades to rebuild locally over and east of the Islands starting Tues (6/27) at 15 kts and holding through Thurs (6/29). But the fetch area is to be shallow with not much windswell resulting on east facing shores.
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.
More details to follow...
24 deg Isotherm Continues Rising In EPac - ESPI Index Falling Hard Negative
The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).
Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration and is holding.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast:
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of Wednesday (6/21) east winds were over the entire equatorial Pacific including the Kelvin Wave Generation Area. Anomalies were neutral everywhere including the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): Light east anomalies were over the KWGA and forecast to fade to near neutral in 24 hours and hold through the end of the 7 day model run (6/29). These winds are at the 850 mb level (about 4,200 ft) and it is suspected winds will be less down at the surface. This suggests a fading Inactive Phase of the MJO/La Nina is over the KWGA.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:
OLR Models: As of 6/21 a weak Inactive/Dry Phase of the MJO was over the West Pacific and dateline regions. The statistical model depicts it fading in 5 days with no MJO signal in play beyond out 2 weeks. The dynamic model continues to projects the Inactive Phase holding if not rebuilding in the West Pacific for the next 2 weeks.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (6/22) The ECMF model indicates the Active Phase of the MJO was exceedingly weak over the West Indian Ocean and is to disintegrate and become incoherent 2 weeks out. The GEFS depicts essentially the same thing but positioned more coherently over the East Indian Ocean through the 2 week period.
40 day Upper Level Model: (6/22) This model depicts a modest Inactive/Dry pattern over the East Pacific tracking east into Central America 7/2 with a weak Active Phase over the dateline tracking east into Central America 7/17. A period of no activity is forecast then a weak Inactive Phase develops in the West Pacific 7/22 tracking east to almost the dateline through the end of the model run on 8/1. This model runs about 2 weeks ahead of what happens at the surface.
CFS Model - 3 month (850 mb wind): (6/22) This model depicts no MJO signal over the KWGA. Neutral if not light west wind anomalies were indicated over the KWGA. Starting 6/30 west anomalies are to be developing a better footprint in the KWGA and holding in some form through July with a weak incoherent MJO signal projected. A legitimate Active Phase of the MJO is to fully develop in the West Pacific on 7/26 with building west anomalies moderate in strength holding till 9/18 (end of the model run), then fading some as the Inactive Phase of the MJO tries to develop in the KWGA. But of note, east anomalies are to be from the dateline and points east of there from 7/22 onward. The west winds scenario is likely overstated as the model has been teasing at west anomalies for months and yet they never develop. The low pass filter indicates La Nina dissipated as of 6/14. Interestingly the model projects a lowpass La Nina signal is to redevelop 8/7 (previously 7/21) but now only just east of California rather than over the KWGA. Best guess is a very weak directionless pattern is to set up or even a weak La Nina redeveloping in Fall of 2017. It will take 5 years for the Pacific to recharge from the 2014-16 El Nino.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/22) Actual temperatures remain stratified with warm water in the far West Pacific at 30 degs over a shallow area at 160E. The 28 deg isotherm line is steady at 146W. The 24 deg isotherm no longer reaches Ecuador and dissipates at 99W. But it is 100 meters deep at 140W. Anomaly wise a generic pattern of +1 deg anomalies stretches from the East to West Pacific from 100 meters upward. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/17 depicts a continuous stream of warm water tracking from the west to the east suggesting a Kelvin Wave is in flight towards the East Pacific. The concern remains that there is no real warm water in the far West Pacific to feed any sort of a progressive Kelvin Wave pattern. The GODAS image appears to be about 1 week behind the TAO data.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/17) In the east 5 cm anomalies are fading rapidly in coverage only covering waters of Central America (north of the equator) out to 105W and fading. In the west +0-5 cm anomalies are present only west of 165E on the equator. Otherwise a neutral pattern is in play over the equator.
Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (6/21) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate a near neutral to barely warm pattern offset from the immediate South American coast building in heat from 120W westward. 2 small pockets of warm water are present along the equator, one along Ecuador, and the other at 100W, remnants of a warm event previously along South America. Upwelling along the immediate coasts of Chile, Peru and Ecuador is present but not strong, but steady. Overall temps are cooling off South America out to 120W (2,400 nmiles off the coast). The La Nina that developed last Spring is gone and an El Nino like pattern that was trying to build after it during March-May is dissipating with a neutral pattern if not slightly cool pattern setting up off Central America down to Peru.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/21): A neutral to weak cooling trend is in control of the coast of Chile and Peru. Pockets of warming are present on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos out to 120W, the likely fading remnants of warming previous along Peru. A strong warming trend continues in the Northern Hemi from California pushing north of Hawaii and reaching west to the Philippines. But overall nothing remarkable is indicated.
Hi-res Overview: (6/21) A weak warm regime holds from Chile north to Ecuador and west to 140W then stronger to 140E. But it looks like a neutral temperature regime is trying to set up off South America. Pockets of cool anomalies are in the far East Pacific off Ecuador, Peru and Chile out to 120W. Overall waters of all oceans of the planet are warmer than normal. Suspect climatology needs to be updated to reflect this new reality, or the recent Super El Nino has significantly redistributed heat across the oceans.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/22) Today's temps were falling from +0.276, down from the peak of +3.0 degs on 3/18 and +1.0 degs on 5/2..
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: Today (6/22) temps were steady at +0.448 degs.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (6/22) The forecast has temps steady at +0.55 degs today into early July then falling to +0.25 in early Aug down to +0.15 early Oct, then falling to -0.15 in Jan 2018, perhaps warming to+0.2 degs in March. This suggests a neutral to weak La Nina pattern setting up for the Winter of 2017-2018. CFS data (6/20) still suggests a Modoki style warming pattern over the dateline this Fall and Winter but other models are no suggesting a return of a weak La Nina pattern. There is no source for El Nino like warming with the warm pool in the far West Pacific weak and fading. Much recharging and heat buildup is required for a real El Nino to develop. We're at least 5 years out from that.
IRI Consensus Plume: The mid-June Plume updated (6/15) depicts temps have warmed to +0.3 degs. Temps are forecast to hold at this level for the coming 8 months suggesting a neutral pattern in control. See chart here - link. The NMME consensus depicts the same thing with temp +0.3 degrees above normal through Feb.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (6/21): The daily index was rising at -1.62 and has been negative for 21 days. The 30 day average was falling at -4.63. The 90 day average was falling at -4.06 or just south of neutral. This suggests a return to ENSO neutral conditions has taken hold.
ESPI (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive is good, negative bad): (6/22) Today's value was falling hard at -1.96 or trending strongly towards La Nina. A peak low was reached on 11/2/16 at -1.94, the deepest of the past La Nina event. So the index is currently more negative than at the peak of last years La Nina. At this time it looks like La Nina is returning. This index is a forerunner of what happens in the ocean by 2-3 months in developing El Nino and La Nina events.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO continues positive, though much weaker lately (as expected with La Nina setting in).
Per NOAAs index recent values (Jan-Dec): Jan 2017 = +0.10, Feb = +0.03, March = +0.09, April=+0.52, May=+0.36. This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO. No consistently negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington EDU index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2017 = +0.77, Feb = +0.70, Mar = +0.74, April=+1.12, May=+0.88. No negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table