On Thursday (6/21) Northern CA surf was waist high and weak. South facing breaks in Santa Cruz were flat. Central California surf (Morro Bay) was waist high on the sets. Southern CA from Santa Barbara to just north of LA even best breaks were flat. The LA Area southward to Orange County was waist high at the best breaks. Southward from Orange County into San Diego best breaks were maybe thigh high. The North Shore of Oahu was flat. The South Shore was thigh high. The East Shore report was not available.
North/Central California was getting weak short period locally generated windswell. Southern California was getting a mix of tiny local windswell and weak background energy from the southern hemi. Hawaii was essentially flat on all sides other than tiny windswell on the East Shore. Local short period windswell remains the only hope for both California and Hawaii over the next 5 days or more while the southern hemi remains locked down by a highly unfavorable upper level high pressure system shutting down the main Antarctic Storm Corridor. A storm is forecast under New Zealand this weekend, but is to directly impact there with all swell energy being totally shadowed. Maybe a little bit will escape to the north and provide background swell for Hawaii long term, but that's about it. This storm is to try and reorganize early next week east of New Zealand, but weakness is to be it's hallmark. Maybe more background swell for Hawaii with luck. See details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
Thursdays jetstream charts (6/21) for the North Pacific indicated a weak ridge arching over the dateline pushing up into the Bering Sea with even weaker troughs on either side, one off Kamchatka and the other pushing into Canada. no winds of interest were modeled in either trough providing no support for low pressure development there. Over the next 72 hours the same basic pattern is to hold with troughs on either side of a weak ridge on the dateline. Again no support for surface level low pressure development capable of generating surf. Beyond 72 hours more of the same is forecast but with the ridge building and get stronger with winds up to 120 kts by Thursday (6/28) feeding into the Gulf trough which is to be digging deeper bottoming out almost off San Francisco. minimal support for low pressure development in this trough with perhaps some surface winds of interest, but odds low.
At the surface today high pressure at 1032 mbs was in the far Western Gulf of Alaska ridging southeast but still not quite reaching either Hawaii or the mainland. So no surface winds capable of generating windswell of interest were suggested. Weak low pressure was in the Gulf at 1004 mbs but not generating any wind of interest either. No other weather features of interest were occurring. In short, nothing was happening. Over the next 72 hrs the high pressure system is to drift southeast providing a little more energy for development of a pressure gradient over Point Conception with winds building to 25 kts there by Friday (6/22) and less off to the north but holding through the weekend into early next week. The result to be weak short period local windswell from San Francisco southward, with little wrapping into Southern CA. About the same time trades are to start slowly building over the Hawaiian Islands with weak short period easterly windswell steadily building, but nothing remarkable.
No tropical systems of interest were being tracked at this time.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
California Offshore Forecast
On Thursday (6/21) high pressure at 1032 mbs was well out to sea just barely ridging into the coast and providing a steady flow of north winds at 15-20 kts generating only minimal short period windslop. That pattern to build some through the weekend as the high moves closer to the coast, with winds in the 20-25 kts range focused mainly over Pt Conception and hugging the coast, making for a sloppy mess all locations north and likely setting up eddy southerly winds for South CA. At least the windswell is to be a bit bigger. The high to start retreating early next weak with the gradient moving north of Cape Mendocino by Tuesday (6/26) and local winds calming steadily through the day nearshore, and windswell size fading with it. The fetch to fade out by Wednesday with just lingering 15 kt nearshore winds and no fetch behind it on through the workweek. Windswell to be gone and conditions cleaning up.
Thursdays jetstream charts (6/21) for the South Pacific indicating a big ridge pushing south now directly into Antarctica over the southeast totally blocking the storm corridor. A minor trough persisted under New Zealand with winds 140 kts pushing well to the north, but directly into land there. Limited support for storm development indicated in the trough, but elsewhere no support suggested. Over the next 72 hours through Sunday (6/24) yet another strong ridge is to build just east of New Zealand slamming right into the Ross Ice Shelf and Antarctica late Friday (6/22) continuing the total lockdown of the majority of the South Pacific. The trough under New Zealand is to try and make some progress east pushing into open waters of the Southwest Pacific by Saturday with winds fading from 120 kts and loosing energy all the while through Sunday. And the balance of power in the South Pacific is to still be pushing south, so little is forecast to develop down at the surface in this trough. Beyond 72 hours the trough southeast of New Zealand is to try and hang on, but another massive ridge is to develop under Australia mid week (6/27) driving everything towards Antarctica, eliminating any hope by late week.
At the surface today high pressure remained in firm control of the Southeast Pacific with no fetch or low pressure of interest suggested. Low pressure was set up under New Zealand through driving a a fetch of 45 kt winds up into the Tasman Sea with a secondary fetch pushing due south towards Antarctica east of New Zealand. Almost some hope here for Hawaii. Over the next 72 hours all the good fetch associated with this system is to push right into New Zealand by late Thursday (6/21) totally obscuring/shadowing it's swell generating potential. Maybe some swell energy will escape to the north bound for Hawaii before that collision, but not much. Theoretically the fetch is to pass over New Zealand and try to reorganize just east of there late Friday into Saturday (6/23) with fragmented bits of 40-45 kt winds pushing northeast towards Hawaii, fading out early Sunday. 29-32 ft seas possible in this area if this all comes to pass, possibly setting up some decent small swell for the Islands, but odds low at this time. California to be too far away and a bit off the great circle track to have any meaningful energy heading in that direction. Will monitor.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours high pressure to be equidistant between Hawaii and California on Monday (6/25) driving a moderate northerly flow down the California coast at 20-25 kts continuing the reign of short period windswell. But the fetch is to be slowly lifting north from Pt Conception up to Cape Mendocino by late Tuesday and fading. Local trades over the Hawaiian Islands to build to 20-25 kts blowing into East Shores with increased potential for limited short period windswell through Wednesday (6/27) and beyond as the high starts drifting back to the west but in relatively close striking distance of Hawaii. But by Wednesday the retreating high to spell and end to windswell for California, with a calm pattern settling in.
Beyond 72 hours the remnants of low pressure to continue circulating just east of New Zealand into early Wednesday (6/270 but winds speeds to generally be below 30 kts, eliminating any swell generation potential relative to Hawaii and certainly for CA. Behind that more high pressure to be pushing east from under Australia setting up near New Zealand re-establishing a decidedly southward push of winds towards Antarctica and the Ross Ice Shelf by Thursday (7/28), likely eliminating any chance for swell generation for the days ahead.
Details to follow...
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6th Annual Jay Moriarity Memorial Paddleboard Race: Saturday June 23rd 2007. Surftech is presenting the 6th Annual Jay Moriarity Memorial Paddleboard Race. The “Jay Race” is considered one of the premiere paddleboard races on the West Coast attracting the states best paddlers to compete in the challenging waters of the Monterey Bay. is the 12-mile race course that start's and finishes at beautiful New Brighton State Beach in Aptos and loops through the kelp beds of the Monterey Bay. In addition to the 12 mile race, there will be a 2 mile Short Course and Youth Races for paddlers of all levels. The 2 mile race is an opportunity for paddlers of all levels to compete.” It's about sharing the spirit and stoke that Jay shared with everyone” With this spirit in mind, many competitors partaking in the 12 mile race offer their boards to newer competitors to use in the shorter race. With the 12 mile race starting at 8:30 am, the other races begin mid day with the awards being presented at around 2:00 pm. For more information:
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Jason-1 Satellite Data On-line and Improved!: Our Jason-1 satellite data was upgraded yet again Wednesday PM (6/6) and is now operating better than ever. We've added a feature that averages the data every 15 measurements on the local views and every 50 measurements on the global view (1 measurement every 3 nautical miles) and overlays the results onto the wave model chart. Both the single highest measurement on the chart and the highest 15 measurement average are posted at the bottom of each chart. This seems to work real well and compensates for the very spiky nature of the raw data coming off the satellite. So we now have an effective way to verify the accuracy (or lack of) the wave model output. See the data here: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_alt.html
Comprehensive guides to surfing Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Baja and Mainland Mexico: They ain't pretty. They ain't glossy. They ain't coffee table picture books. These are guides for surfers who want real, useful information. Since 1996 The Surfer's Guides have always provided more info, more detail, more tips, and have been updated more often than any other surf travel guides. Take a look here: http://www.surfingtravel.com/
Surfing's Greatest Misadventures: We've been reading a great book of short stories all based around surfing adventures, but not in classical sense. These are stories of surf trips gone bad, personal growth and realizations while on surf trips, silly things that happen while surfing right on up to horrifying shark attacks, and some great nostalgic tails of surfers versus the Marines at Trestles back in the early days. A truly enjoyable, easy to read and entertaining look at the culture and people that make up the surf community. Check it out here: http://www.thesurfbook.com
New Book: Inside Mavericks - Portrait of a Monster Wave: Ace photographer Doug Acton, cinematographer Grant Washburn and San Francisco Chronicle writer Bruce Jenkins have teamed up to present an insiders view of Mavericks. Read all the first hand accounts from Peter Mel, Ken 'Skin Dog' Collins, Grant Washburn, Mark Renniker and the rest of the gang as they describe the game of surfing one of the largest waves in the world, fully illustrated with the hauntingly artistic images from Doug Acton, long-time Mavericks lensman. There's even a section featuring Stormsurf! Get your autographed copy here: http://www.insidemavericks.com/
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table