On Tuesday (6/21) Northern CA surf was waist high and mushy. South facing breaks were waist to chest high on the sets. Central California was waist high and rarely a little bigger. Southern CA breaks from Santa Barbara to just north of LA were about waist high, occasionally a little more. The LA area southward into Orange County was waist high with best breaks chest high or more. Southward to San Diego waves were waist to maybe chest high. The North Shore of Oahu was flat. The South Shore was waist to chest high and fading. The East Shore was waist to chest high.
Swell #3S is fading out in Hawaii but doing well at best breaks mainly in Southern California. This swell is to continue to fade in Hawaii and hold decently in California for one more days before starting to downsize. Of far more interest is new Swell #4S schedule for Hawaii by the end of the workweek and moving into California by late in the weekend. See details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis.cgius forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
At the jetstream level on Tuesday (6/21) a bit of a trough was hanging off the Kuril Islands reaching to the dateline with winds barely 120 kts. A ridge was building in the East Pacific (animation here). Over the next 72 hours the trough in the West Pacific is to hold, but with wind speeds dying away to near nothing by Friday (6/24). A big ridge is to continue building in the Gulf of Alaska with no storm support expected.
At the surface today moderate high pressure at 1024 mbs was centered in the Gulf of Alaska providing light trade winds over the Hawaiian Islands and a light northwesterly flow along the California coast. In the West Pacific an extratropical low was approaching the dateline from off Japan with confirmed winds 35-45 kts over a tiny area in it's southwest quadrant aimed well at Hawaii, but a long ways away (animation here). Over the next 72 hours the low is to max out Tuesday night just before reaching the dateline with pressure 988 mbs and winds 40-45 kts aimed right at Hawaii. A rapid decline is to set in Wednesday AM (6/22) with the gale fading away totally by nightfall. Some 13-14 sec period windswell is possible for northwest facing shores of the Hawaiian Islands starting Saturday AM (6/25) peaking near sunset at 3 ft @ 13 secs (4 ft faces) with residuals expected though Sunday (6/26) then fading out. Otherwise high pressure in the gulf of Alaska is to start building on Thursday (6/23) to 1028 mbs with trades and windswell moderately on the increase both in Hawaii and California.
More model data here
California Offshore Forecast
Tuesday mornings local charts (6/21) indicate high pressure at 1026 mbs anchored in the Gulf of Alaska, positioned more to the north than usual. A light trade wind pattern was present along the California and Hawaiian coasts, with no real windswell producing fetch suggested. By Wednesday night (6/22) the Gulf high is to sink southeast a little and build with winds along the California coast on the increase, but not focused and rather shallow. Weak low pressure inland to set up over San Francisco with a bit of a gradient starting to develop off Cape Mendocino on Thursday (6/23) with north winds there to 25-30 kts. But by Friday (6/24) that is to fade, with just generalized 20 kt north winds forecast over the outer waters through the weekend. No real windswell producing fetch of interest forecast.
The 5 Day wind forecast is now included with the surf & swell overview in the QuikCAST's.
On Tuesday (6/21) the jetstream charts indicated that the southern branch of the jet was gaining strength while pushing southeast into Antarctica, building a ridge and shutting off the critical fuel su.cgiy to any system trying to generate in the South Pacific. A weak trough was fading off Chile, a victim of this situation (animation here). Within 72 hours (Friday 6/24) the southern branch of the jet is to be driving hard into Antarctica over the larger part of the width of the South Pacific with no support for storm development suggested.
At the surface today a tiny storm was off Chile (see Chilean Storm below) while high pressure at 1032 mbs controlled the eastern half of the South Pacific and ridging nearly to the Ross ice Shelf. This was shunting all eastward moving low pressure under New Zealand into Antarctica (animation here). Over the next 72 hours this same high pressure system is to remain in control of the Central South Pacific, pushing slowly east and south. A small storm at 968 mbs is forecast to develop south of Tasmania on Thursday (6/23) with winds building briefly to 50-55 kts aimed east, but it is to get quickly squashed by high pressure in the the greater Pacific Ocean as it tries to emerge from under New Zealand. Whatever winds it generates are to not get much traction on the oceans surface before they die.
More model data here
Chilean Low (South CA)
On Monday evening (6/20) a 984 mb low started to congeal from the remains of Storm #4S well west of the Chilean coast while high pressure built in the Central South Pacific at 1032 mbs. A tiny fetch of 50 kt winds were confirmed near 45S 118W aimed northeast up the 180 degree path to South CA but outside the NCal swell window. On Tuesday AM (6/21) the fetch build some more as pressure dropped to 976 mbs with winds 50 to near 60 kts over a tiny area centered at 42N 118W and aimed more easterly, 45 degree east of the 180 degree path to SCal. This fetch is to move quickly to the storms north quadrant by early Wednesday (6/22) taking aim on South America and pushing out of even the Southern CA swell window. Seas forecast up to 33 ft over an infinitesimally small area centered at 39S 115W late Tuesday (6/21) holding for 24 hours then fading but moving out of the California swell window Wednesday AM (6/22). This system has the potential to provide limited swell for only the most exposed south facing breaks in Southern CA. Will monitor.
Small Tahiti Storm #3S
In all this system was generally uninspiring due to it's short life and limited fetch area. The big thing in it's favor though was it's rather northern position putting it in very close proximity to Tahiti and relatively close proximity to Hawaii (3447-3895 nmiles) and California (4423-4916 nmiles), Almost 2000 nmiles closer than it it was under New Zealand. This should significantly reduce the resulting swells travel distance and thereby reduce swell decay as it tracks north. California to receive some fun sized surf, just under the significant class range, but well rideable just the same. Most energy is to be passing a bit west of California, but that should not be too bad.
South CA: Swell to continue unabated Tuesday (6/21) at a 3.3 ft @ 14 secs (4.0-4.5 ft faces), then starting to fade late Tuesday. Continued declining size expected through early Thursday (6/23) as period drops slowly to 13 secs. Swell Direction: 201-206 degrees
North CA: Swell to continue unabated Tuesday (6/21) at a 3.3 ft @ 14 secs (4.0-4.5 ft faces), then starting to fade late Tuesday. Continued declining size expected through late Thursday (6/23) as period drops slowly to 13 secs. Swell Direction: 201-206 degrees
On Thursday AM (6/16) a new low was developing in the deep central South Pacific off the eastern Ross Ice Shelf in the trough present in the upper levels of the atmosphere. Pressure was 968 mbs with winds confirmed at 40-45 kts over a moderate area centered at 60S 165W aimed at California up the 200 degree path and 30 degrees east of the 185 degree path to Hawaii. These winds were imbedded in a broader area of 35-40 kts winds aimed the same way. Seas were building. In the evening pressure was down to 958 mbs with winds confirmed at 45-55 kts over a elongated area centered at 56S 156W aimed 20 degrees east of the 200 degree great circle path to California and 40 degree east of the 178 degree path to Hawaii. Seas were still not of interest yet but were on the increase.
On Friday AM (6/17) pressure was down to 956 mbs with winds 40-45 kts centered at 58S 158W aimed more to the north or 10 degrees west of the 198 degree path to California and right up the 180 degree path to HAwaii. Seas built to 30 ft centered at 148W 53S, mostly from the previous days fetch and a bit out of the Hawaiian swell window. In the evening pressure was down to 952 mbs with winds confirmed at 40-45 kts solid centered at 54S 150W over a moderate area aimed right up the 198 degree path to California and 30 degrees east of the 176 degree path to Hawaii. Seas held at 31 ft centered at 53S 151W over a moderate area imbedded in a broad area of lesser seas.
On Saturday AM (6/18) pressure was 950 mbs with winds confirmed at 45-50 kts centered at 58S 147W aimed right up the 195 degree path to California and 40 degrees east of the 175 degree path to Hawaii. Seas were modeled at 29 ft and holding over a broad area centered at 50S 147W. In the evening pressure was 948 mbs with winds holding at 45-50 kts centered at 58S 143W aimed like before. Seas were modeled at 31 ft centered at 57S 145W.
On Sunday (6/19) this system is to rapidly deteriorate with no swell producing fetch forecast. Residual seas from the previous days fetch were 31 ft centered at 55S 140W and fading fast. No seas of winds of interest were left by evening.
This system was interesting, though not as strong as originally hoped for. The short story is that everyone from Hawaii eastward to California down to Central America is to get some decent swell from this system. The broadest fetch was aimed best at California and targets to the south. But the most intense fetch covering a much smaller area was aimed more to the north right at Hawaii with lesser sideband energy backing it up. It was about normal distance from both the Islands (4329-4692 nmiles) and California too (5243-5621 nmiles). Good swell generation potential for all locations from Hawaii, Tahiti into California and Central America is expected.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival starting in the early morning hours of Friday (6/24) with size tiny and period at 17-18 secs, on the increase through the day. Swell peaking right at sunset at 4.3 ft @ 16 secs (6-7 ft faces with best breaks to near 9 ft). Swell to hold solid on Saturday (6/25) with swell 4.3 ft @ 15 secs holding through day (6.0-6.5 ft faces - best breaks to nearly 8 ft on the face). A bit of a decline expected on Sunday (6/26) with a little more period building underneath at 15-16 secs. Swell 4 ft @ 13-14 secs (5.0-5.5 ft faces). Swell to slowly decline Monday (6/27) with swell 3 ft @ 13 secs (3.5-4.0 ft faces), dropping Tuesday (6/28) to 2.6 ft @ 12 secs (2.5-3.0 ft faces) and fading out totally late Wednesday. Swell Direction: 175-180 degrees
South California: Expect swell arrival starting Saturday sunrise (6/25) with period at 18 secs and size tiny but building through the day with swell at sunset 3.6 ft @ 17+ secs (6.0-6.5 ft faces - best breaks to near 8 ft faces). Peak size to hit near sunrise Sunday (6/26) with swell 3.9 ft @ 16 secs (6.0-6.5 ft faces - best breaks to near 8 ft faces). Another small pulse to build in on Monday morning (6/27) with period at 16-17 secs. Swell 5 ft @ 15 secs (6-7 ft faces - best breaks to 7 ft). Decent size to continue on Tuesday (6/28) with swell 5 ft @ 15 secs (6-7 ft faces). Energy starting to fade out into Wednesday (6/29) with period turning to a pure 14 secs. Swell Direction: 192-200 degrees
North California: Expect swell arrival starting Saturday at sunset (6/25) with period at 18 secs and size tiny but building overnight. Solid size to be hitting near mid-morning Sunday (6/26) with swell near 3.6 ft @ 17 secs (5.5-6.0 ft faces - best breaks to near 8 ft faces), perhaps building a little more during the day. Size holding into Monday morning (6/27) with a new pulse building underneath after sunset at 16-17 secs. Swell 4.3 ft @ 15 secs (6.0-6.5 ft faces - best breaks to 7.5 ft). Solid size to continue on Tuesday (6/28) with swell 4.3 ft @ 14-15 secs (5.5-6.0 ft faces). Energy fading out late Wednesday (6/29) as period turns to pure 14 secs. Swell Direction: 190-198 degrees
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Tuesdays upper level models (6/21) indicated that beyond 72 hours a very weak pattern is to persist. A ridge is expected to continue in the Gulf of Alaska with a tiny trough pushing over North CA late in the weekend but nothing to support a storm suggested. After that the jetstream itself is to fade to near nothing.
At the surface a second low is to follow the extratropical system on Saturday (6/25) but winds are to remain below 30 kts with no swell generation potential suggested. High pressure in the Gulf of Alaska is to build to 1032 mbs for the weekend with tradewinds increasing in Hawaii and over the outer waters off the Pacific Northwest. Windswell generation potential up some, but then the high is to fade by early next week. Otherwise no other swell producing fetch forecast.
Tuesdays upper level models (6/21) indicated that beyond 72 hours high pressure is to remain in control. A very strong ridge is continue in the mid-South Pacific totally erasing any hope for storm development at lower levels of the atmosphere. The only faint hope is a tiny trough forecast well southeast of New Zealand a week out, and even that is to be mostly over Antarctic ice.
At the surface high pressure to continue dominating the eastern South Pacific at 1024 mbs while ridging south to Antarctica. Some generic low pressure is to be building southeast of New Zealand on Monday (6/27) while high pressure controls the Tasman Sea at 1032 mbs, but not organized fetch over 35 kts indicated. Some potential in the region if the jetstream pattern changes, but that is not suggested at this time.
Details to follow...
El Nino Forecast Updated: Check out all the latest indicators to get a handle on how the Summer and Fall seasons could unfold. http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/enso/current.shtml
Big Florida Swell: A strong gale pushed off Cape Hatteras on 4/15 generating solid seas and a 70 ft rogue wave that hit a cruise ship before proceeded south to make solid waves for the Southeast US coast. Matt Kechele was there to catch it. Take a look here: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/forecast/forecast/kechele.html
Stormsurf Weather Models Updated Again: Yes, we've been at it again this weekend getting another batch of weather models running. Global coverage is now provided for jetstream forecasts and surface pressure and winds. Zoomed in data is also available for such locations as the Mentawai Islands to Western Australia corridor, Tahiti, South America, Europe and Norwegian Sea. So now you can get local wind forecasts for these and more locations with one click. Take a look here: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu.html
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table