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BUOY ROUNDUP
On Tuesday, June 18, 2019 :

• Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/ Buoy 239 (Lanai) Seas were 3.8 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 13.2 secs from 175 degrees.
• Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 3.6 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 2.8 ft @ 7.7 secs from 42 degrees.
• Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.4 ft @ 17.2 secs with swell 1.5 ft @ 16.3 secs from 193 degrees. Wind at the buoy was south at 4-6 kts. Water temperature 62.8 degs. At Harvest (Buoy 071) primary swell was 3.7 ft @ 8.5 secs from 316 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.8 ft @ 16.9 secs from 219 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 2.2 ft @ 16.5 secs from 219 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.3 ft @ 16.4 secs from 205 degrees.
• Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 8.2 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 6.6 ft @ 9.5 secs from 316 degrees. Wind at the buoy (013) was south at 4-6 kts. Water temp 56.3 degs (042) and 52.9 degs (013).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (6/18) in North and Central CA northwest windswell was waist to chest high and pretty warbled and mushed by northwest wind off the coast. Protected breaks were waist high and clean but inconsistent and closed out. At Santa Cruz New Zealand swell was chest to maybe head high and clean and pretty lined up but a bit on the inconsistent side. In Southern California/Ventura windswell was producing waves at thigh to waist high on the sets and clean and lined up. In North Orange Co minimal New Zealand swell was producing waves at waist high or so and and lined up and lightly textured and soft. South Orange Country's best summertime breaks were head high to 1 ft overhead on the sets and clean and lined up with some light texture on top making it a bit crumbled. North San Diego had surf at waist to chest high and crumbled with some light texture on top making it soft. Hawaii's North Shore was flat to thigh high and textured with some northeast textured on it. The South Shore was getting fading New Zealand swell with set waves chest high and clean and lined up but slow. The East Shore was getting real east windswell with waves waist high or so and heavily textured from moderate east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (6/18) in California New Zealand swell was hitting well in California along with the normal summertime north windswell hitting exposed breaks in California and east windswell in Hawaii. Hawaii was also getting fading New Zealand swell. That swell originated from a gale that tracked northeast from under New Zealand Fri-Sat (6/8) with seas to 39 ft. Another gale developed while tracking east under New Zealand Tues-Wed (6/12) with 39 ft seas aimed east. Sideband energy from that swell is pushing northeast. But beyond no clearly defined swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast other than local windswell (see below).

Windswell Outlook
On Tuesday (6/18) the usual summer time pressure gradient was solid producing north winds 30 kts but limited to Cape Mendocino with 20-25 kt north winds extending south off the coast down to the Golden Gate making for continued windswell along the North and Central CA coast. An eddy flow to continue for Bodega Bay southward. Northeast fetch was continuing at 15 kts solid extending from CA to Hawaii with decent northeast windswell expected into east facing shores of the Hawaiian Islands. On Wed (6/19) the gradient is to build with 35 kt north winds over Cape Mendocino and 20 kt north winds extending south to a point off Morro Bay resulting in windswell for all of North and Central CA. An eddy flow to continue for all Central CA and up to Bodega Bay. Trades to continue at 15 kts from California to a the Hawaiian Islands but spotty within 600 nmiles of the Hawaiian Islands resulting in windswell along east facing shores but loosing some size. On Thurs (6/20) the gradient is to hold if not build south some producing 30-35 kt north winds off Cape Mendocino to Pt Arena and reaching south to Pt Reyes later producing windswell radiating south but with light winds if not an eddy flow (south winds) for Central CA early then turning northwest for all of Central CA late afternoon. East winds relative to Hawaii are to fade to 10-15 kts within 600 nmiles of the Islands but 15+ kts from California westward to that point still producing some windswell radiating into east facing shores of the Islands. On Fri (6/21) more of the same is forecast with north winds 30-35 kts over all of North CA with an eddy flow south of there over Central CA resulting in decent windswell for all of North and Central CA. Fetch to remain aimed at Hawaii with windswell fading some there.

  North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical weather systems of interest are forecast.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Tuesday (6/18) north winds to be 30-35 kts for Cape Mendocino with light south (eddy flow) winds for Bodega Bay down over all of Central CA. More of the same on Wed-Thurs (6/21). Friday (6/21) AM northwest winds to be 10 kts for Central CA early but turning to an eddy flow mid-day (south winds). North winds for North CA to hold at 30-35 kts. Sat (6/22) north winds to be 25-30 kts over all of North CA and the eddy flow redeveloping for Central CA. No change on Sunday (6/23). But on Monday (6/24) north winds to start falling south at 20-30 kts over North CA and building to 20 kts later for all of Central CA. Tues (6/25) north winds to be 20 kts nearshore for all of North and Central CA.

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts).

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (6/18) the jetstream was split with the influential southern branch ridging south to 70S and sweeping east from under New Zealand over the Central and Southeast Pacific offering no support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours no real change is forecast with the ridge continuing but moderating slightly pushing south only to 63S still actively suppressing support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours starting Saturday (6/22) the ridge is to be holding while winds start building under New Zealand at 64S aimed east at 150 kts building to 180 kts on Sun (6/23) and pushing east to the Central Pacific at 63S forming a trough but most of it is to be over the Ross Ice Shelf offering no (or at best limited) support for gale development. But Mon-Tues (6/25) the southern branch is to be lift gently northeast centered near 60S but not forming a trough but perhaps offering some gentle support for gale development over the deep South Pacific. But, the Inactive Phase of the MJO appears to still be influencing the upper level flow.

Surface Analysis  
A gale built under New Zealand lifting northeast producing swell that is hitting California now (see New Zealand Gale below). And another gale formed south of New Zealand pushing east producing potential for sideband swell radiating northeast into Hawaii and California (see Southwest Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

 

New Zealand Gale
On Thurs PM (6/6) a gale started pushing east under New Zealand with 40-45 kt west winds aimed east with seas building to 36 ft at 59S 156E aimed east (214 degs SCal, 216 degs NCal and not shadowed for both). On Fri AM (6/7) fetch started turning and lifting northeast at 45 kts from the southwest over a broader and solid area producing 39 ft seas at 58S 166E aimed east-northeast (214 degs SCal and shadowed by Tahiti, 215 degs NCal and not shadowed). In the evening the gale was just south-southeast of New Zealand with southwest winds 40-45 kts over a solid area aimed north-northeast with seas 38 ft at 54.5S 172.5E (214 degs SCal and shadowed, 215 degs NCal and not shadowed) aimed northeast. On Sat AM (6/8) the gale was tracking northeast just off the coast of New Zealand with 30-35 kt south winds over a large area aimed north-northeast with seas fading from 33 ft at 52S 179.5E aimed northeast (214 degs SCal and shadowed, 212 degs NCal and not shadowed). In the evening the gale pushed north and reconsolidated east of North New Zealand producing 30-35 kt south winds over a solid area with a new core developing at 40+ kts and seas 28 ft at 50S 174W mainly from the original fetch (213 degs Scal and shadowed, 211 degs NCal and not shadowed). On Sun AM (6/9) the gale held stationary still producing a small area of 30-35 kts south winds aimed north with seas 24 ft over a small area at 38S 162W aimed northeast (214 degs SCal and shadowed, 211 degs NCal and becoming shadowed by Tahiti) and no longer of interest. The gale faded and fell southeast from there.

Hawaii: Dribbles on Tues (6/18) fading from 1.3 ft @ 13-14 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 196 degrees

South CA: Swell peaking on Tuesday (6/18) at 2.6 ft @ 16 secs (4.0 ft with set to 5.5 ft). Swell fading on on Wed (6/19) from 2.3 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.5 ft). On Thurs (6/20) swell fading from 1.9 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Fri (6/21) from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 213-214 degrees

North CA: Swell peaking on Tuesday (6/18) at 2.2 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.5 ft with set to 4.5 ft). Swell fading on on Wed (6/19) from 1.9 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). On Thurs (6/20) swell fading from 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading on Fri (6/21) from 1.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (1.0-1.5 ft).Swell Direction: 211-216 degrees

 

Southwest Pacific Gale
On Tues AM (6/11) a gale developed due south of New Zealand with 40-45 kt west-southwest winds with seas building to 31 ft at 62.5S 170E. In the evening 45 kt west-southwest winds were lifting northeast with seas building to 38 ft at 60.5S 178W free and clear of the Ross Ice Shelf. On Wed AM (6/12) the gale continued east-northeast with 40 kt west-southwest winds solid in coverage and seas 38 ft at 59.5S 163.5W aimed east-northeast. In the evening fetch faded from 30-35 kts over a solid area aimed northeast with 32 ft seas at 57.5S 153.5W aimed east-northeast. On Thurs AM (6/13) the gale continued northeast with 35 kts southwest winds and seas 28 ft at 57S 142.5W aimed northeast. The gale faded from there. Something to monitor. Small swell is radiating northeast.

Hawaii: Small sideband swell is to radiate northeast arriving on Wed (6/19) at 1.3 ft @ 17 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (6/20) from 1.0 ft @ 15-16 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 193 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (6/20) building through the day to 2.0 ft @ 19 secs later (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell building on Fri (6/21) to 2.3 ft @ 17 secs later (4.0 ft with sets to 5.0 ft). Swell holding Sat (6/22) at 2.3 ft @ 16 secs (3.5-4.0 ft with sets to 4.5 ft). Swell fading Sun (6/23) from 2.2 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.0 ft). Residuals on Mon (6/24) fading from 1.7 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 200 degrees

Northern CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (6/20) building through the day to 1.3 ft @ 20 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell building on Fri (6/21) to 2.0 ft @ 17-18 secs later (3.5 ft with sets to 4.5 ft). Swell holding Sat (6/22) at 2.0 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell fading Sun (6/23) from 2.0 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft). Residuals on Mon (6/24) fading from 1.6 ft @ 14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 198 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

Windswell Outlook
On Sat (6/22) the gradient is to lift north with north winds 25+ kts for the Cape Mendocino area south to near Bodega Bay producing windswell radiating south. The eddy flow (south winds) is to start rebuilding for Central CA. Fetch relative to Hawaii is to fade with no windswell for Hawaii expected. Sunday (6/23) the gradient is to hold limited to Cape Mendocino producing north winds at 30 kts producing moderate northwest windswell radiating down into Central CA. An eddy flow is to persist for Central CA. Monday (6/24) the gradient is to fade some and fall south producing north winds at 25+ kts mainly from the Golden Gate north to Southern Cape Mendocino and falling south and impacting the Central Coast later with smaller junkier local northwest windswell impacting Central CA. On Tuesday (6/25) the gradient is to be falling south over most of North CA and all of Central CA nearshore waters producing north winds at 20+ kts generating raw local north windswell.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours starting Sun (6/23) a fetch of 40+ kt west winds is to develop under New Zealand over an elongated area aimed east producing 32 ft seas at 60S 175E. The fetch is to fade in the evening but seas are to build to 36 ft at 61S 173W aimed east. Some degree of sporadic fetch to continue into Mon (6/24) with seas 32-34 ft aimed east generally south of New Zealand just off the northern edge of the Ross Ice Shelf. Something to monitor.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Active MJO Developing - El Nino Warming to Hold Into Early 2020

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and did not stop, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. A double dip La Nina was in control and continued through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June warm water was fading and the outlook did not favor El Nino come Fall.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST

Summer 2019 = 5.5 (California & Hawaii) Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: Assuming the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that weak borderline El Nino condition continue , and assuming a weak ocean-atmospheric coupling holds and ocean temperature anomalies in Nino3.4 hold in the +0.8 deg range, there is good probability for slightly enhanced storm production in the South Pacific during the Northern Hemisphere Summer time months. There is slightly increased intensity in number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in slightly increased odds for larger than normal swell, with increased duration and higher than normal period. This should be significantly better than the past 2 Summer seasons.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (6/17) 5 day average winds were solidly from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific holding over the Central and pushing into the West Pacific. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific turning light easterly over the Central Pacific and modest westerly over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (6/18) weak west anomalies were over the entirety of the KWGA but with solid east anomalies over the entirety of the East Pacific. The forecast is for west anomalies holding velocity and position into 6/22, then giving up some ground to east anomalies only near the dateline 6/23 through the end of the model run on 6/25 (east anomalies from 165E to 170W and east of there). There is to be slowly building support for storm development over the next week, but that will have to overcome atmospheric momentum already predisposed to support the previous and stronger Inactive Phase of the MJO. But the situation is expected to start improving.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (6/17) An Active MJO pattern was indicated filling the West Pacific today. The statistic model indicates the Active MJO Phase building over the KWGA on day 5 and holding through day 15, maybe fading some at that time. The dynamic model suggests the same pattern. The 2 models are in sync.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (6/18) The statistical model depicts a modest Active Phase of the MJO over the Maritime Continent, and it is forecast to push east over the Maritime Continent and into the West Pacific at day 15 but steadily weakening to weak status. The GEFS model suggests the same but with the Active Phase weakening even more and all but gone at day 15.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model): (6/18) This model depicts a modest Active Phase over the MJO over the West and Central Pacific today and is to push east into Central America on 7/5. A modest Inactive MJO signal is to track over the West Pacific 7/3 pushing east up to Central America on 7/26. There's no sign of any Active Phase moving even over the Maritime Continent at that time.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/17) This model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO developing over the KWGA today with west anomalies filling the KWGA. West anomalies are to build reaching strong status 6/18 through 6/26 at Westerly Wind Burst (WWB) status. After that west anomalies are to be weaker but holding solid through the end of the model run on 7/15 with no east anomalies to be found.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/18) This model depicts a moderate Inactive Phase of the MJO almost gone in the KWGA today with west anomalies starting to build in the KWGA and building to moderate strength 6/20-6/27 as a weak Active Phase develops 6/20 and holding in the KWGA through 8/4. Weak to modest west anomalies are to be in the KWGA continuously from now through then end of the model run on 8/15. The Active Phase is to fade then redevelop 8/21-9/12. no INactive Phases are forecast. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias with 2 contour lines is in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east to California. The second contour line is to fade on 6/19 but the remaining single remaining contour line is to hold through the end of the model run, contrary to previous runs which suggested it fading on 7/28. But it is to retract from California moving west to 150W at the end of the model run. A secondary low pressure contour is to materialize over the Indian Ocean 8/21 holding through the end of the model run. This model indicates that a tendency towards El Nino was previously in control of the Pacific during the Fall of 2018, but has been steadily fading since then and is to continue a steady decline into September, but not out, then possibly moving towards the Indian Ocean. Basically we are moving from a pattern biased towards El Nino to one biased towards ENSO neutral.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/18) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 30 degs over a solid and steady area reaching east to 175W (previously 160E) while the 29 deg isotherm was steady at 157W today. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 142W. The 24 deg isotherm previously pushed into Ecuador at 30 meters down, but retrograded to 105W last week, but is again pushing into Ecuador today down 3 meters. Anomaly wise, gentle warm anomalies are filling the entire subsurface Pacific at +1 degs from the surface to 150 meters down (deepest on the dateline). There was a building +2 deg pocket between 180-110W (Kelvin Wave #4). The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/12 indicates warm water from Kelvin Wave #3 and #4 filling the equatorial Pacific from 155E at +1 degs reaching east to 110W with a core at +2 degs from 170W-115W (Kelvin Wave #4) developing from WWB #4 that occurred from 5/1-5/26. A small pocket of cool water was drawing up from depth to the surface in the east at 105W. A previous stream of warm water flowing into the far West Pacific at 140E was gone. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/12) Positive anomalies have rebuilt lightly over the equatorial Pacific at +0-5 cms between 175W to 120W (Central Pacific) attributable to a WWB #4 that occurred there 5/1-5/26 and a smaller one at 125W (Kelvin Wave #3). From this data it looks like the Kelvin Wave #3 was dissipating in the east and Kelvin Wave #4 was weakly developing under the dateline.

Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (6/17) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate weak warm anomalies were steady from 20S to 20N on the equator from Ecuador to the dateline. But cooling developed along Peru last week, but that was fading some today but not gone. And overall previous strong warming over the East Equatorial Pacific was fading to modest strength today. There is some weak indication of a El Nino but nothing strong.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/17): 3-4 small pockets of warming were aligned along the equator between Ecuador to 120W. Otherwise a neutral trend was in control.
Hi-res Overview: (6/13) Warmer than normal water was from Ecuador west over the Galapagos 20 degrees north and south of the equator continuing west of there to the dateline. There were now 3 small pockets of weak cooling from the Galapagos west to 125W.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/15) Today's temps were falling at +0.345 degs, up from 2 weeks previous at -0.508 degs, and that down from a peak of +1.235 on 5/27.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/15) Today temps were steady today at +0.737 today. Temps have been steady the last 2 weeks.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (6/18) The model indicates temps were +0.75 degs in early June and are falling some. The forecast indicates temps down to +0.6 degs July 1 then rising some through the Fall to +0.70 and holding at+0.65 to +0.70 into March 2020. A weak El Nino like pattern is to hold into early Fall, and now, through Winter of 2019/20. A multiyear warming event is in progress and looks like it might continue.
IRI Consensus Plume: The May 2019 Plume depicts temps are at +0.70 degs today, and are to hold in the +0.65 range into October, then fading slightly to +0.60 in Jan 2020. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (6/18): The daily index was negative today at -11.32, negative the last 2 days. The 30 day average was falling at -7.25 today suggesting a building Active MJO. The 90 day average was falling some at -4.54, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern biased towards El Nino (for now).
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): (April) +0.34, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. It is approaching El Nino territory but still indicted mostly ENSO neutral conditions.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly positive, even though La Nina is in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan -0.23, Feb -0.55 This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

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External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

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Powerlinessurf

Jeff Clark

Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (6/16):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wsVGWPgego0&feature=youtu.be&hd=1
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Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table