On Saturday (6/16) Northern CA surf was waist to chest high and junk. South facing breaks in Santa Cruz were up to waist high. Central California surf (Morro Bay) was up to waist high. Southern CA from Santa Barbara to just north of LA was near flat even at the best breaks. The LA Area southward to Orange County was thigh high only at the best breaks. Southward from Orange County into San Diego best breaks were waist high. The North Shore of Oahu was flat. The South Shore was chest to head high on the sets. The East Shore report was not available.
North/Central California was getting some unremarkable north windswell with the hint of southern hemi swell underneath. Southern California was getting mostly small southern hemi swell with little bit's of local windswell intermixed. Hawaii was on the downside of the last southern hemi swell for the foreseeable future. East windswell was also in the mix along eastern shores. The southern hemi swell originated from a tiny fetch mid-last week off eastern New Zealand. Otherwise windswell along the California coast is to hold into Monday then fade out and dissipate even earlier in Hawaii, on Sunday. Pretty calm thereafter until windswell returns by the weekend in California. There hints of potential very limited background southern hemi on the charts for both Hawaii and California a week out, but odds are low. So make the most of what you can get now. See details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
Saturdays jetstream charts (6/16) for the North Pacific indicated a very weak flow ridging through the Bering Sea only dropping south of the Aleutians in the Gulf of Alaska, and then just barely so and mostly too far north to be of any interest. Over the next 72 hours more of the same is forecast, only the Gulf is to look even less interesting with the jet weakening. Beyond 72 hours a little trough is forecast to finally set up in the Gulf on Tuesday (6/19) with winds theoretically building to 120-130 kts for a few hours or two between then and Thursday (6/21, then pushing inland into Canada. Limited support for low pressure development in the Gulf if this occurs. Otherwise almost no discernible flow forecast over the Western Pacific.
At the surface today high pressure at 1032 mbs was in the Central Gulf of Alaska pushing up along the Pacific Northwest coast generating 20 kt northwest winds there and up to 25 kts into Cape Mendocino. The high was also generating 20 kt trades over the Hawaiian Islands. The net result was unremarkable short period windswell in all locations. A second high at 1036 mbs was over the dateline looking to provide reinforcements in the days ahead. Weak low pressure was off Japan providing no fetch of interest relative to Hawaii. Over the next 72 hrs high pressure in the Gulf to sink southeast providing a little more fuel for the pressure gradient over Cape Mendocino building northerly winds there to 30 kts into late Monday (6/18), then rapidly fading, and windswell with it. Weak low pressure to take over the Gulf mid-week holding high pressure at bay, but not strong enough itself to generate andy fetch of interest. The net result is to be a rather placid pattern taking control of the North Pacific.
No tropical systems of interest were being tracked at this time.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
California Offshore Forecast
On Saturday (6/16) the Cape Mendocino gradient was starting to re-activate with up to 30 kt north winds expected by nightfall increasing the potential for windswell into Sunday. This pattern to hold into Monday with the bulk of the fetch remaining just off the coast, improving the chances for somewhat cleaner conditions at all breaks south of Pt Reyes, but not by much. Better odds for southern eddy flow along the coast. Things to really start calming down on Tuesday with placid conditions and no real winds to speak of holding into Wednesday (6/20). Then winds to return on Thursday focused more off Pt Conception and lingering there through next weekend, with only very short period windslop and poor local conditions in control. Southern California to remain shadowed from the wind, though an eddy flow seems likely.
Saturdays jetstream charts (6/16) for the South Pacific continued indicating a totally split flow pushing across the width of the ocean there with the southern branch ridging along the 60-65S latitude, providing little no no space between there and Antarctic Ice for the development of low pressure. Not a pretty picture. Over the next 72 hours through Monday (6/18) a new ridge to build in the southern branch again driving the jet far to the south and shutting down any potential for surface level low pressure development. Of note: The jet is to be driving hard north right as it approaches the coast of Chile near 110W providing a decent area for low pressure to develop in, but this is to be well outside the California swell window. Beyond 72 hours yet another big big ridge is to develop pushing the southern branch clear over Antarctica by Friday (6/22) and choking off the storm corridor even more, eliminating any chance for storm development. Of interest though is a trough trying to set up southwest of New Zealand mid-next week with a little energy at 140 kts driving up toward land, but fading almost as quick as it forms. Maybe some hope from this area long term though, with the models suggesting some form of weak trough holding there. Also another trough to be setting up on Friday (6/22) off Chile, pushing due north from 110W and almost in the California swell window. Winds at 140 possible. Suspect most of this energy will be too far to the east to have any influence in our forecast area though.
At the surface today high pressure at 1040 mbs remained in firm control of the Southeast Pacific with more high pressure over southern New Zealand. No low pressure of any interest was even on the charts. Over the next 72 hours the flow is to be decidedly to the south driven by the high in the Southeast Pacific. On the eastern side of that high a good fetch of 45 kt south winds is forecast Tuesday (6/19) taking aim at Peru, but not in the US swell window. In short, nothing of interest is forecast for either Hawaii or California.
Late Wednesday into early Thursday (6/7) a 960 mb low was pushing under New Zealand with much of it's fetch impacting the southern tip of the peninsula. An 18 hour fetch of 40-45 kt winds slid just east of there generating a short-lived area of 30 ft seas aimed well at Hawaii up the 200 degree great circle path. This was just enough to send limited swell northeast towards the Islands. A secondary fetch of 40 kts winds built in the same area early Friday (6/8) pushing a bit north and producing 29 ft seas.
Background swell from this system to possibly limp into both North and South California Saturday (6/16) peaking Sunday with swell 2.5 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.5 ft faces). 15 sec energy to continue at the same size Monday, then fading. Swell Direction: 213-218 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours a complex conglomeration of 3 low pressure system are forecast to set up off the corners of New Zealand late Wednesday in to Thursday (6/21) but any fetch they produce is to be aimed either right into land there or due south towards Antarctica. Perhaps a short lived fetch of 50 kts southwest winds to develop off eastern New Zealand and hold for 12 hours pushing something north towards Hawaii, but odds are very low at this early date. Some form of low pressure to linger under New Zealand after that, but not fetch of interest is forecast. Also another fetch is forecast off Chile, but it is to be too far east of the California swell window to be of any interest. In short, nothing to look forward to.
Beyond 72 hours high no substantial change in the unfavorable pattern forecast, with high pressure ruling supreme over the Southeastern Pacific and everything in the Southwest Pacific diving southeast in response to the dominant high there. There weak suggestions that low pressure is to try and make a showing in the Tasman Sea late next workweek, but any fetch there is to be aimed at New Zealand proper, and not expected to take aim any further north. So it looks like we're getting well set up for a major flat spell. in fact we're already in that mode, with the last southern hemi swell of any magnitude at all already hitting Hawaii and bound for California this weekend. After that it will go flat and stay that way for at least 2 weeks, and possibly much longer.
Details to follow...
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6th Annual Jay Moriarity Memorial Paddleboard Race: Saturday June 23rd 2007. Surftech is presenting the 6th Annual Jay Moriarity Memorial Paddleboard Race. The “Jay Race” is considered one of the premiere paddleboard races on the West Coast attracting the states best paddlers to compete in the challenging waters of the Monterey Bay. is the 12-mile race course that start's and finishes at beautiful New Brighton State Beach in Aptos and loops through the kelp beds of the Monterey Bay. In addition to the 12 mile race, there will be a 2 mile Short Course and Youth Races for paddlers of all levels. The 2 mile race is an opportunity for paddlers of all levels to compete.” It's about sharing the spirit and stoke that Jay shared with everyone” With this spirit in mind, many competitors partaking in the 12 mile race offer their boards to newer competitors to use in the shorter race. With the 12 mile race starting at 8:30 am, the other races begin mid day with the awards being presented at around 2:00 pm. For more information:
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Jason-1 Satellite Data On-line and Improved!: Our Jason-1 satellite data was upgraded yet again Wednesday PM (6/6) and is now operating better than ever. We've added a feature that averages the data every 15 measurements on the local views and every 50 measurements on the global view (1 measurement every 3 nautical miles) and overlays the results onto the wave model chart. Both the single highest measurement on the chart and the highest 15 measurement average are posted at the bottom of each chart. This seems to work real well and compensates for the very spiky nature of the raw data coming off the satellite. So we now have an effective way to verify the accuracy (or lack of) the wave model output. See the data here: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_alt.html
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Surfing's Greatest Misadventures: We've been reading a great book of short stories all based around surfing adventures, but not in classical sense. These are stories of surf trips gone bad, personal growth and realizations while on surf trips, silly things that happen while surfing right on up to horrifying shark attacks, and some great nostalgic tails of surfers versus the Marines at Trestles back in the early days. A truly enjoyable, easy to read and entertaining look at the culture and people that make up the surf community. Check it out here: http://www.thesurfbook.com
New Book: Inside Mavericks - Portrait of a Monster Wave: Ace photographer Doug Acton, cinematographer Grant Washburn and San Francisco Chronicle writer Bruce Jenkins have teamed up to present an insiders view of Mavericks. Read all the first hand accounts from Peter Mel, Ken 'Skin Dog' Collins, Grant Washburn, Mark Renniker and the rest of the gang as they describe the game of surfing one of the largest waves in the world, fully illustrated with the hauntingly artistic images from Doug Acton, long-time Mavericks lensman. There's even a section featuring Stormsurf! Get your autographed copy here: http://www.insidemavericks.com/
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table