On Saturday (6/9) Northern CA surf was waist to chest high and messy. South facing breaks in Santa Cruz were maybe waist high. Central California surf (Morro Bay) was waist high. Southern CA from Santa Barbara to just north of LA was thigh to waist high at the best breaks. The LA Area southward to Orange County was waist high at the best breaks. Southward from Orange County into San Diego best breaks were waist high. The North Shore of Oahu was flat. The South Shore was waist high. The East Shore report was not available.
North/Central California continued getting local windswell but size was fading out. Southern California was getting some minimal wrap around windswell from the north but nothing more. Hawaii was getting the fading last little bits of southern hemi swell on the South Shore but the North Shore was flat. Another small pulse of southern hemi swell is pushing north towards Hawaii originating off eastern New Zealand, setting up something fun for the week ahead. Minimal easterly windswell expected too. But nothing is scheduled for the North Shore. Weak Low pressure is in the Eastern Gulf of Alaska barely in the North CA swell window with more forecast behind it. This to be providing limited reinforcements combined with local windswell providing the only real hope for California. Longterm the South Pacific to remain dominated by high pressure, with maybe a tiny window east of New Zealand hold some hope for Hawaii, but odds low. But from a southern hemi perspective relative to California, a flat spell has already started and expected to continue for quite some time. See details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
Saturdays jetstream charts (6/9) for the North Pacific indicated a flat flow pushing from off Japan gradually rising into the central Gulf of Alaska with winds across the width of the North Pacific not exceeding 110 kts, strongest in the Gulf. No real support for gale development indicated. Over the next 72 hours no significant change forecast and if anything the flow is to get weaker. Beyond 72 hours thing to decay even more with winds down to 90 kts by Thursday (6/14) with a ridge starting to build over the dateline pushing well into the Bering Sea only serving to shut things down more. One last little trough is forecast in the Gulf next weekend with 120 kts winds briefly building under it providing a glimmer of hope there for both HAwaii and California, but not much.
At the surface today moderate high pressure at 1024 mbs was 9800 nmiles west of Pt Conception CA generating a 20 kt northerly flow along the Central California coast and producing limited short period windswell. This high was also generating moderate easterly trades over the Hawaiian Islands and even more limited windswell along eastern shores. Weak low pressure was in the Gulf of Alaska producing 30 kt northwest winds and perhaps 18 ft seas aimed towards Oregon. Limited potential for windswell pushing south in the the northern most reaches of California, but nothing more. Over the next 72 hrs the low to push inland over British Columbia while high pressure takes control, setting up a solid fetch of 25-30 kt north winds over Cape Mendocino starting Monday (6/11) and continuing through the week, with good potential for windswell north of Pt Conception. Fetch from that high to also wrap towards the Hawaiian Islands by late Tuesday into Friday providing decent potential for short period windswell along northeast shores then. Another low to develop well off the Pacific Northwest Monday/Tuesday (6/12) generating 35 kt northwest fetch and 20 ft seas again aimed towards the northern reaches of California, providing hope for reinforcements to windswell hitting during the week.
No tropical systems are being monitored at this time.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
California Offshore Forecast
On Saturday (6/9) high pressure at 1024 mbs was 900 nmiles west of San Diego ridging into California generating a moderate northerly flow in the 20 kt range centered between San Francisco and Pt Conception. Minimal windswell was occurring at exposed breaks. This pattern to fade Sunday as low pressure pushes into the Pacific northwest with 30 kt northwest winds possibly providing backup to windswell expected to be rebuilding early in the week. High pressure to again take firm control early Monday (6/11) with winds building to 30 kts off Bodega Bay and holding into Thursday while starting to sink south with sizeable local windswell possible but a fair amount of bump and lump expected too given the local nature of the fetch. The high pressure pattern to fade late Thursday (6/14) with windswell fading along with it.
Saturday jetstream charts (6/9) for the South Pacific indicating a bit of a trough was still holding under New Zealand with it's peak east of the southern tip of New Zealand. A small patch of 180 kt winds were near that peak cause by the convergence of the southern branch colliding with the northern branch of the jet. But most of the energy in this trough was flowing south towards Antarctica feeding into a large and strong ridge over the Southeast Pacific pushing right up to Antarctica and totally suppressing any potential for storm development there. Over the next 72 hours through Tuesday (6/12) the trough under New Zealand to totally wash out while the ridge in the east holds then starts to fade. Virtually no support for gale development with energy aimed north expected. Beyond 72 hours another ridge to set up over the Central South Pacific with 110 kt winds pushing over Antarctica by Wednesday (6/13) and reinforcement coming from under New Zealand in the days ahead. The net result is the jet is to be sweeping over the Ross Ice Shelf in the west and continue on east totally eliminating any chance for gale development in non-ice covered waters into next weekend.
At the surface today high pressure at 1036 mbs remained in firm control of the upper reaches of the Southeast Pacific pushing south to Antarctica and driving the storm track the same way. Low pressure at 960 mbs was positioned over the Ross Ice Shelf forming a gradient with the high and generating a healthy fetch of south winds aimed right at Antarctica. Virtually no energy was aimed to the northeast, totally shutting down swell production potential for California and Hawaii. Over the next 72 hours more of the same is forecast with high pressure in the east building to 1040 mbs continuing the steady flow of air southward over Antarctica through Tuesday (6/12). After that a more west to east flow forecast while new high pressure brews south of Tahiti at 1040 mbs. Nothing of interest suggested from a storm or gale production perspective.
Late Wednesday into early Thursday (6/7) a 960 mb low was pushing under New Zealand with much of it's fetch impacting the southern tip of the peninsula. An 18 hour fetch of 40-45 kt winds slid just east of there generating a short-lived area of 30 ft seas aimed well at Hawaii up the 200 degree great circle path. This was just enough to send limited swell northeast towards the Islands. A secondary fetch of 40 kts winds built in the same area early Friday (6/8) pushing a bit north and producing 29 ft seas.
Swell from these two systems expected to arrive in Hawaii starting Wednesday (6/13) with swell building to 2 ft @ 17 secs (3 ft faces) late. By Thursday AM (6/14) swell top start peaking near 3 ft @ 15 secs (4.0-4.5 ft faces) with secondary energy arriving Friday (6/15) at the same size, or 3 ft @ 15-16 secs (4.5 ft faces). Swell starting to head down Saturday (6/16) from 3 ft @ 14-15 secs (4.0-4.5 ft faces). Swell Direction: 200 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours high pressure to hold over the Northeast Pacific through Thursday providing windswell for the California coast and into Hawaii through Friday (6/15) providing northeast windswell potential there. Then a pause in the action with winds dying out Saturday. Low pressure is possible in the Gulf by the weekend, but that's just a guess by the models at this point.
Beyond 72 hours high pressure at 1040 mbs to regenerate over the Central Pacific starting anew south flow pushing right into Antarctica through Friday (6/15). That to fade while tracking east with again a west to east flow building behind it over next weekend. But no organized swell producing low pressure systems are modeled and non likely given the poor upper level flow forecast for the area.
Details to follow...
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table