On Tuesday (6/5) Northern CA surf was waist to chest high and sloppy with onshore wind. South facing breaks in Santa Cruz were waist high, maybe a little more. Central California surf (Morro Bay) was in the waist high range . Southern CA from Santa Barbara to just north of LA was thigh high up to waist high at the best breaks. The LA Area southward to Orange County was thigh to maybe waist high at the best breaks. Southward from Orange County into San Diego best breaks were waist high. The North Shore of Oahu was waist to chest high. The South Shore was chest to near head high. The East Shore was report was not available.
North/Central California surf was all but gone with just local windswell mixing with a little windswell coming out of the Gulf of Alaska, but not much. Southern California was getting faint background southern hemi energy mixed with a little local windswell. Hawaii was getting a bit of windswell from the northern dateline region on the North Shore with new and the last southern hemi swell starting to push into the South Shore. Beyond a few more days of surf is forecast for the South Shore of Hawaii, and that to be the best there is to offer. None of this energy to reach east to the mainland. The North Pacific is in a dormant pattern for the summer and the South Pacific is in a slump with a large upper level ridge controlling the picture there, suppressing storm development relative to Hawaii and California, meaning no southern hemi swells. A flat spell is coming. Local windswell to be the only hope along the West Coast. See details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
Tuesdays jetstream charts (6/5) for the North Pacific indicated a steep trough pushing into Oregon early. A ridge was behind it in the central Gulf of Alaska with a split weak flow behind that over the dateline and back into the Kuril Islands. No real support for low pressure development suggested. Over the next 72 hours a generally flat flow is forecast pushing from Japan into the Gulf of Alaska just south of the Aleutians joined by weak energy pushing off Siberia. No real improvement indicated. Beyond 72 hours a weak trough to develop over the dateline during the weekend pushing east with the jet drifting even further north (almost directly over the Aleutians) behind that and no support for surface low pressure development indicated.
At the surface today weak high pressure at 1024 mbs was just north of Hawaii helping to enhance trades a bit there while starting to ridge into California, enhancing the northwest flow along the coast there. Weak low pressure was over the eastern Aleutians generating some 20-25 kt southwesterly fetch in exposed waters of the Gulf, not really doing anything for the US mainland or Hawaii. No other swell producing fetch was indicated. Over the next 72 hrs the Gulf low to fade out while high pressure gets a better foothold in the Eastern Pacific of Alaska, generating enhanced north winds along the California coast centered south of normal near Pt Conception up to 30 kts and improving windswell generation potential outside the Channel Islands. Seasonal trades to continue over the Hawaiian Islands. No indications of any real swell producing fetch indicated though.
No tropical systems are being monitored at this time.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
California Offshore Forecast
On Tuesday (6/5) high pressure at 1026 mbs was north of Hawaii starting to ridge into the California coast generating a weak to moderate northerly flow in the 15 kts range centered near Pt Conception. This is the start of a long pattern of north winds expected over the coming week. The high to build to 1028 mbs Wed/Thurs (6/7) while tracking east pushing wind speeds off Pt Conception to the 25-30 kt range with lesser winds originating off the north coast pushing south into the stronger core. Short period windswell building at exposed breaks. Winds to back down to the 20-25 kts range Friday (6/8) with the core starting to drift north towards a more normal center near Cape Mendocino but not making it through the weekend. Instead an elongated area of 20-25 kts fetch to remain stuck off Central CA. More short period windswell the likely result. High pressure to take firm control early next week with winds building to 30-35 kts off the Cape with sizeable local windswell possible, but far from certain at this time. In short, a sloppy much mix expected through the week into the weekend focused more towards Central CA with minimal wrap around energy pushing into Southern CA.
Tuesdays jetstream charts (6/5) for the South Pacific continued indicating a totally split pattern with two distinct flows tracking flat west to east (zonal). There were a few small perturbations in the southern branch suggestive of a weak trough under New Zealand, but not really interesting in any real sense of the word. Little to no support for gale development in the vicinity of this trough. Over the next 72 hours through Friday (6/8) the trough under New Zealand to become better defined with 150 kt winds flowing up into it aimed right at New Zealand and providing increased potential for gale development in the region, but likely obscured by New Zealand. At the same time a big ridge to start developing in the Southeast Pacific pushing hard to the south, eliminating any storm development potential there. Beyond 72 hours the New Zealand trough to really fade while the ridge in the southeast continues to build and strengthen. One redeeming ray of light is that the ridge is to be drifting east all the while, opening up more area in the Southwest Pacific. Unfortunately, no significant upper level energy to be in the area, resulting in no fuel to feed gale development there through mid-next week.
At the surface today high pressure at 1028 mbs was in control of the upper reaches of the Southeast Pacific driving the storm track southward towards Antarctica and focusing any energy towards that location. Low pressure at 960 mbs was positioned directly southeast of new Zealand and building, though all it's 35 kt fetch was aimed due east and not up any great circle path towards Hawaii or California. Over the next 72 hours the high in the east to build to 1036 mbs Thursday (6/7) continuing it's unfavorable impact there, while the low east of New Zealand flairs up with winds in the 45 kts range or more and seas to 35 ft but all aimed either due east or southeast towards Antarctica. Only minimal support for producing sideband energy pushing northeast towards our forecast area, with most energy heading towards Chile.
On Sunday PM (5/27) weak low pressure at 980 mbs was southeast of New Zealand while high pressure at 1032 mbs was over Northern New Zealand. A pressure gradient (difference in pressure between the two systems) was producing 40-45 kt south winds at 56S 177W and again Monday AM at 49S 165W. Seas were modeled to 25 ft at 54S 175W pushing north well towards Hawaii and Tahiti. Jason-1 data suggested seas were running 2 ft less than what was modeled.
On Tuesday evening (5/29) winds expanded in coverage and continued in the 45 kts range at 48S 165W aimed 25 degrees east of the 182 degree path to Hawaii and 10 degrees west of the 206 degree path to California but partially shadowed by Tahiti. Seas were modeled to 27 ft at 50S 165W.
The fetch area shrank Wednesday AM (5/30) but still confirmed at 40-45 kts at 42N 159W aimed like before. 30 ft seas were modeled at 45S 163W attributable to previous days surge in fetch. The last little bit of 35-40 kt fetch was confirmed in the evening at 38S 156W with seas modeled at 29 ft over a moderate sized area at 40S 159W heading right towards Hawaii up the 180 degree path and totally shadowed by Tahiti relative to California.
This one was gone by Thursday AM (5/31). No Jason-1 satellite passes came near the core of this fetch to verify what was actually occurring down at the oceans surface.
This was not a remarkable system by any stretch of the imagination. But relative to Hawaii and Tahiti there was one redeeming characteristic, the fetch was moving almost due north pushing right up the great circle paths towards these locales and reasonably close too , especially for Tahiti. With winds holding in the 40 kt range for 72 hours and a little bit of virtual fetch expected, some near-significant class surf is likely for Hawaii with period in the 15-16 sec range. Much more size is expected for Tahiti with the fetch pushing to within 1400 nmiles.
Hawaii: Swell to continue decent Wednesday AM (5/6) with swell 3 ft @ 15 secs early (4.5-5.0 ft faces), then fading late. Swell fading from 3 ft @ 13 secs Thursday AM (4 ft faces). Swell Direction: 180-185 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours a weak pulse of low pressure to track from 900 nmiles north of Hawaii into the Canadian coast over the weekend with limited 25-30 kt fetch all aimed at Northern Canada. Otherwise high pressure at 1024 mbs to hold off California continuing 20-25 kt northwest winds there and normal trades for Hawaii. The high to really crank up early next week as it interacts with building low pressure inland over Nevada setting up a broad area of 30-35 kt north winds over Cape Mendocino CA Mon-Tues (6/12) with improved chances for local windswell off California but too far east to have any real impact on Hawaii other than maintaining normal trades. No other swell producing fetch of interest forecast.
Beyond 72 hours high pressure to build from 1036 mbs to 1040 mbs and becoming more entrenched, generating a decidedly southward push to all wind in the area aimed at Antarctica. On exception is a supposed little low forecast to track up the New Zealand east coast Fri/Sat (6/9) pushing a small area of 45 kt winds northeast and generating a tiny area of 30 ft seas towards Hawaii for 24 hours, providing very limited swell potential for the Islands. But it too like anything that follows under New Zealand is to get sucked into the larger flow all bound southeastward. And to make matters even worse, nothing of any real interest is to be pushing under New Zealand over the longterm. So the short of it is an extended flat spell looks likely given the current configuration of the models short of a little background swell for Hawaii.
Details to follow...
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table