On Sunday (6/3) Northern CA surf was waist to maybe chest high and clean early. South facing breaks in Santa Cruz were chest high. Central California surf (Morro Bay) was in the chest high range . Southern CA from Santa Barbara to just north of LA was up to waist high at the better breaks. The LA Area southward to Orange County was up to chest to head high at the best breaks. Southward from Orange County into San Diego best breaks chest to head high pushing 1 ft over on the sets. The North Shore of Oahu was still head high. The South Shore was waist high. The East Shore was thigh high.
North/Central California was still getting a decent dose of southern hemi swell, putting surf in the fun sized range. Southern California was getting good focus on the southern hemi swell with size still providing head high surf at the better breaks. Hawaii was getting a bit of very late season surf on the North Shore with waves still pushing head high while southern hemi swell was fading on the South Shore. Southern hemi swell is scheduled to start really dropping off in California by Monday with windswell becoming the dominant swell source as the week unfolds. Hawaii to get one more shot of decent southern hemi swell starting Tuesday while the North Shore goes into hibernation mode for the summer. Longterm nothing of interest is scheduled in the southern hemi for the next week, so it looks like a flat spell is coming. See details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
Sundays jetstream charts (6/3) for the North Pacific indicated a trough in the eastern Gulf of Alaska with winds feeding into it at 120 kts from a ridge over the dateline. Minimal support for surface low pressure development in this trough. The trough is to be pushing into Canada and the Pacific Northwest late Monday while a completely nondescript pattern builds from the west over the greater North Pacific and holds into next weekend. If anything a bit of a ridge to build in the Gulf late next week. No support for surface level gale development suggested.
At the surface today weak high pressure at 1020 mbs was over the dateline trying to ridge east but not really doing it. Two weaker low pressure systems were present, one in the Gulf and the over off the Kuril Islands. Neither was generating winds of interest. Over the next 72 hrs these two lows are to merge in the Gulf of Alaska, but all fetch is to be aimed due north towards Alaska. No indications of any swell producing fetch aimed at either Hawaii or California. High pressure is to push a little bit further east though helping to enhance the standard northwesterly flow along the California coast centered near Pt Conception mid-week and also bumping trades up just a notch over the Hawaiian Islands.
Tropical Storm Barbara pushed inland over mainland Mexico near Puerto Madero Saturday morning (6/2) with winds 45 kts and was then downgraded to tropical depression status. No other tropical systems are being monitored at this time.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
California Offshore Forecast
On Sunday (6/3) and near neutral pressure pattern was in control of the California coast while a weak low pressure system at 998 mbs was off Washington. The low is to wrap up and track northeast out of the picture Monday while high pressure tries to build north of Hawaii, finally reaching the coast Tuesday and starting to generate northwest winds off Pt Conception at near 30 kts late. Windswell off the Channel Islands building. That setup to hold into Thursday (6/7) while increasing in coverage northward but winds dropping to the 20-25 kts range. Windswell building some north. Then the high to fade some and the winds with it by Friday, though not completely out. A weak but steady northwest windflow forecast through next weekend, but not enough to generate windswell of interest.
Sundays jetstream charts (6/3) for the South Pacific indicated a totally split pattern with two distinct flows tracking flat west to east (zonal). There were a few small perturbations in the southern branch suggestive of a weak trough under New Zealand, but it was minor. In short, little support for gale development in the vicinity of this trough. Over the next 72 hours through Wednesday (6/6) the trough under New Zealand to not become any better defined while a bit more of a ridge starts developing in the Southeast Pacific. Beyond 72 hours a much stronger batch of upper energy to set-up under New Zealand Thursday (6/7) with 160 kt winds blowing northeast into the southern Tasman Sea and southern New Zealand, directing most surface level energy there too. This trough to drift east into the exposed Pacific 24 hours later, but by then all the energy to move to the downward side of the trough aimed at Antarctica and feeding into a big ridge in the Southeast Pacific. The trough to hold through the weekend (6/10) but the ridge in the southeast to be far more dominant, severely limiting the potential for gale development.
At the surface today low pressure was in the central South Pacific just north of the Ross Ice Shelf, but any winds associated with it were aligned due west to east following the lead of the jetstream aloft. All fetch was aimed towards Chile. This low to eventually fade out on Tuesday (6/5) while wind energy builds pushing up in to the Tasman Sea. UP to 35 ft seas forecast there Wednesday at 48S 163E, maybe good for producing swell bound for Fiji. But those winds to be redirected to the east 24 hours later and then taking aim southeast towards Antarctica. No support for swell aimed towards Hawaii or California.
No other swell producing system forecast.
On Sunday PM (5/27) weak low pressure at 980 mbs was southeast of New Zealand while high pressure at 1032 mbs was over Northern New Zealand. A pressure gradient (difference in pressure between the two systems) was producing 40-45 kt south winds at 56S 177W and again Monday AM at 49S 165W. Seas were modeled to 25 ft at 54S 175W pushing north well towards Hawaii and Tahiti. Jason-1 data suggested seas were running 2 ft less than what was modeled.
On Tuesday evening (5/29) winds expanded in coverage and continued in the 45 kts range at 48S 165W aimed 25 degrees east of the 182 degree path to Hawaii and 10 degrees west of the 206 degree path to California but partially shadowed by Tahiti. Seas were modeled to 27 ft at 50S 165W.
The fetch area shrank Wednesday AM (5/30) but still confirmed at 40-45 kts at 42N 159W aimed like before. 30 ft seas were modeled at 45S 163W attributable to previous days surge in fetch. The last little bit of 35-40 kt fetch was confirmed in the evening at 38S 156W with seas modeled at 29 ft over a moderate sized area at 40S 159W heading right towards Hawaii up the 180 degree path and totally shadowed by Tahiti relative to California.
This one was gone by Thursday AM (5/31). No Jason-1 satellite passes came near the core of this fetch to verify what was actually occurring down at the oceans surface.
This was not a remarkable system by any stretch of the imagination. But relative to Hawaii and Tahiti there was one redeeming characteristic, the fetch was moving almost due north pushing right up the great circle paths towards these locales and reasonably close too , especially for Tahiti. With winds holding in the 40 kt range for 72 hours and a little bit of virtual fetch expected, some near-significant class surf is likely for Hawaii with period in the 15-16 sec range. Much more size is expected for Tahiti with the fetch pushing to within 1400 nmiles.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival starting Tuesday AM (6/5) building to 3 ft @ 16 secs late (5 ft faces). Swell to continue decent Wednesday AM (5/6) with swell 3 ft @ 15 secs early (4.5-5.0 ft faces), then fading late. Swell fading from 3 ft @ 13 secs Thursday AM (4 ft faces). Swell Direction: 180-185 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours weak low pressure to linger in the Gulf of Alaska generating 20-25 kt west winds there and producing windswell for the Pacific Northwest coast. High pressure to get a better hold northeast of Hawaii mid-week with trades to 20-25 kts forecast by late next weekend. Windswell potential there on the increase but otherwise no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
Beyond 72 hours the pattern to get even worse with a broad fetch of north winds forecast in the central South Pacific aimed towards Antarctica starting Thursday (6/7) and continuing through the weekend. Another decent gale is forecast developing back west under New Zealand with 40 kt fetch aimed north-northeast towards Fiji trying to push east into the open Pacific, but suspect it will suffer the same fate as it moves east.
Details to follow...
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table