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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: June 1, 2006 9:59 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
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Swell Potential Rating = 5.0 - California & 2.5 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)
Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    
Issued for Week of Monday 5/29 thru Sun 6/4
Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Utility swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of Utility swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Swell #2S Starts Hitting CA
Weaker System Just Off the Ross Ice Shelf

 

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
On Thursday (6/1) Northern CA surf was waist to maybe chest high and fogged in. South facing breaks in Santa Cruz were near flat. Central California surf was waist high on the sets but mostly smaller. Southern CA breaks from Santa Barbara to just north of LA were up to waist high at the best spots, with most flat. The LA Area southward to Orange County was chest high with a few bigger sets rarely. Southward from Orange County into San Diego best breaks were head high on the sets and coming up, with the new southern hemi swell in control. The North Shore of Oahu was flat. The South Shore was chest to head high and even a bit more at the best breaks. The East Shore was flat.

As expected Swell #2S is starting to hit California with the south end of the state getting the best of it, being closer to the leading edge of the swell front. 5 days of energy is stacked up behind this so there's no immediate rush, though the biggest is front-loaded. A series of two small pulse to follow in quick succession, being indistinguishable from the initial pulse, just prolonging it's life, hence the 5 day swell. Hawaii is receiving a good dose of swell today, bigger than we forecast with sets at the best spots head high or so. This to continue into Friday too. Beyond that one more system is tracking through the deep Central Pacific today, providing long term hope for both Hawaii and California, though not into the significant class range. After that the models suggest a calmer pattern, though not totally inactive. See details below...

 

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Thursdays jetstream charts (6/1) indicated no support for surface level gale development for the next 7 days with winds generally 120 kts or less. Detailed monitoring for the North Pacific is being accomplished on an exception basis through the summer.

At the surface on Thursday (6/1) as weak pressure pattern was in control of the North Pacific with no noteworthy high or low pressure cells present to generate swell producing fetch. Over the next 72 hours low pressure in the Gulf that was to possibly generate some 20-25 kts winds has now been downgraded. No swell generation potential suggested.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

California Offshore Forecast
On Thursday (6/1) weak low pressure was in the Gulf of Alaska helping to temporarily break up the high pressure regime that has dominated the past few weeks. That low to theoretically produce 25 kt northwesterly winds just off North CA Saturday, but that seems less likely than it did earlier. Maybe some small windswell to result. Calmer winds are to prevail over California nearshore waters except off Pt Conception where 20-25 kt northwest winds are to remain, though very limited in coverage. But new high pressure to build right behind on Monday (6/5), ushering more northwest winds back into the area then and through the workweek initially wrapping into Southern CA Mon/Tues then drifting north affecting mainly North/Central CA.

The detailed 5 Day wind forecast is included with the surf & swell overview in the QuikCAST's.

 

South Pacific

Overview
On Thursday (6/1) a split jetstream flow remained in-place over the South Pacific with most energy contained to the northern branch. The southern stream continued flowing basically zonal (flat west to east) hovering just north of the boundary between the Ross Ice Shelf and clear ice-free waters to the north. No obvious troughs or pockets were present to support surface level gael development. Over the next 72 hours no big change forecast with the southern branch maybe gaining a little energy, but diving further south back over Antarctic Ice in the eastern South Pacific.

At the surface on Thursday AM (6/1) the only system of interest was a small 948 mb low southeast of New Zealand and just barely off the northern edge of the Ross Ice Shelf. It actually developed Wednesday (5/31) south of New Zealand with pressure 960 mbs and winds 45 kts, up to 55-60 kts that evening. Seas built to 30 ft at 62S 180W. On Thursday AM winds continued in the 50-55 kt range aimed mostly due east, almost perpendicular to any great circle route to Hawaii and only marginally better for California. but seas built to 38 ft ft over a tiny area at 63S 165W. A rapid decay set in through the day Thursday with no swell producing fetch expected to be left by evening and seas fading from 32 ft at 60S 160W. There are hints of residual 30 ft seas into Friday, but with winds modeled to be only 35 kts in the area, most of that to be decaying energy from previous days fetch rather than freshly generated seas. All this is really a gift considering the state of the jetstream aloft. Moderate utility class sideband energy forecast to be tracking north for next weekend towards Hawaii (15-16 secs) and not much more pushing towards California (17 sec).

Nothing else of interest forecast.

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Southeast Pacific - Storm #2S
On Wednesday AM a low started developing due south of Tahiti (east of the Hawaiian swell window) with pressure 964 mbs and winds confirmed at 50 kts over a small area at 60S 150W aimed 25 degrees east of the 194 degree path into California. By evening pressure was down to 954 mbs with a moderate fetch of 50-55 kt southwest winds confirmed centered at 55S 135W aimed just 20 degrees east of the 186 degree path to California. Not too bad. Seas were building fast at 32 ft centered at 61S 145W. The Jason-1 satellite made passes around the periphery of the fetch late evening, but not directly through it. Those readings supported the numbers coming from the wave model though. On Thursday AM the storm fetch was lifting northeast with pressure 964 mbs and 720 nmiles of 50 kt winds centered at 48S 123W aimed 20 degrees east of the 182-185 degree paths to California. This was decent, though not exceptional. Seas were modeled at 40 ft over a tiny area at 58S 132W. By nightfall the low continued lifting rapidly northeast with south winds barely 50 kt over a tiny area at 48S 114W though mostly 40-45 kts outside the NCal swell window with a little energy still aimed at SCal up the 178 degree paths. 35 ft seas modeled aimed towards CA on the very eastern edge of the swell window at 52S 123W, gone by Friday AM.

Another pulse of energy developed right behind the main storm through the day Friday (5/26) tracking fast to the east and generating 24 hours of 32-35 ft seas at 60S 132W-118W. This has generated a secondary pulse of swell energy expected to follow right behind the main swell, though smaller and hardly distinguishable from the main pulse, just prolonging it's life.

On Sunday (5/28) yet another small 968 mb low developed under the trough established in the upper atmosphere in the Southeast Pacific. Winds were in the 40-45 kt range through the day pushing northeast and fading below 35 kts Monday (5/29) but aimed more to the north on the eastern edge of the California swell window. Seas modeled to 30 ft at 53S 132W Sunday evening moving to 48S 127W Monday AM, then faltering. Another third small pulse of southern hemi utility swell expected for California and points south of there a week out.

A small significant class swell has been generated and is pushing north and east towards California, Central America and northern South America. This was a rather short lived system with only 36-48 hours of effective fetch, but that fetch was traveling well to the northeast building momentum towards the aforementioned targets with a little virtual fetch in play, perhaps helping to add a bit higher number of waves per set in the 17-20 sec band of this swell. Still nothing exceptional, just solid fun.

South California: Expect swell arrival late Wednesday (5/31) with period at 20 secs and swell to maybe 1 ft right before dark (2 ft faces). Swell to be much more noticeable by Thursday AM (6/1) with period 19 secs and swell small but building reasonably quickly through the day to 3.3 ft @ 18 sec by sunset (5.5-6.0 ft faces with best breaks to 7.5 ft). Swell to continue upwards from there, maxing Friday (6/2) at up to 4.2 ft @ 17 secs (6.5-7.0 ft faces with sets to 9 ft at best breaks), holding through the day. Decent size though a little less punchy to continue Saturday with swell 4.2 ft @ 15 secs (6.0-6.5 ft faces with sets occasionally to 7.5 ft at the best breaks) but heading down. Sunday to see swell of 3.6 ft @ 14 secs (4.5-5.0 ft faces) and heading down. A secondary pulse to arrive early Monday (6/5) with swell building to 4 ft @ 15 secs (5.5-6.0 ft faces) holding at 4 ft @ 15-16 secs Tuesday (5.5-6.0 ft faces) as the third pulse arrives. This pulse to have a little more westerly direction on it (10 degs) more than what is indicated for the main pulse. Swell Direction: 183-188 degrees

North California: Expect swell arrival Thursday AM (6/1) with period 19-20 secs and swell small but building through the day to 2.3 ft @ 19 sec by sunset (3.5-4.5 ft faces with best breaks to 5 ft). Swell to continue upwards from there, peaking Friday (6/2) at 4.2 ft @ 17 secs right before sunset (7.0-7.5 ft faces with sets to 9 ft at the best breaks). Swell to continue solid Saturday at 4 ft @ 16 secs early (6.0-6.5 ft faces with best breaks up to 7.5 ft). Things heading down on Sunday with swell 3 ft @ 14-15 secs (4.0-4.5 ft faces) with maybe some residual energy into Monday. A secondary pulse to arrive Monday (6/5) with swell building to 3.0-3.3 ft @ 16 secs (5.0-5.5 ft faces) rebuilding to 3.6 ft @ 15-16 secs Tuesday (5.0-5.5 ft faces) as the third pulse arrives. This pulse to have a little more westerly direction on it (10 degs) more than what is indicated for the main pulse. Swell Direction: 182-187 degrees

 

Hawaiian Pulse
On Tuesday evening (5/23) a 972 mb low formed well south of New Zealand over the Ross Ice Shelf producing 45- 50 kt winds edging slowly over exposed water north of there. By Wednesday 32 ft seas were modeled at 62S 160E in the 200 degree swell window for Hawaii with winds dropping to 40-45 kts on Thursday and seas up to 35 ft free-and-clear at 61S 178E (191 degree HI) pushing towards Hawaii and less-so to California. A rapid decay set in thereafter with no winds or seas of interest.

Small swell from this system scheduled to push into Hawaii starting Thursday afternoon (6/1) reaching 1.3 ft @ 17-18 secs (2 ft faces) building to 2 ft @ 16 secs (3 ft faces) on Friday (6/2). Swell to peak on Saturday (6/3) at 3.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (4-5 ft faces with sets to near 6 ft at top spots). Swell fading fast on Sunday from 3 ft @ 13 secs (4 ft faces). Swell Direction 190-200 degrees

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a low is forecast to develop off the Kuril Islands this weekend tracking east over the dateline into the Western Gulf of Alaska by Tuesday (6/6) possibly generating 25-30 kt west winds on the dateline tracking east aimed at the Pacific Northwest, but odds remain low low of that actually occurring. A tropical low to follow it tracking off Japan and heading east on Thursday (6/8). Will monitor.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours the models suggest high pressure building in east of New Zealand and tracking east to the Central Pacific at 1024 mbs, riding south to 50S, though not completely blocking the Antarctic storm corridor. A series of lows are to try and get some footing, but all are to track rapidly east driving by a flat/zonal jetstream flow aloft. Bit's of spurious fetch are to try and organize mainly behind the high just east of New Zealand, but all are to be short lived and ineffectual.

Details to follow...


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Local Interest

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