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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: May 26, 2009 9:12 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
Swell Potential Rating = 1.0 - California & 1.0 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)
Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    
Issued for Week of Monday 5/25 thru Sun 5/31
Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Gale Building in Central South Pacific
Building Southern Hemi Gale Pattern Forecast

 

New Swell Classification Guidelines (Winter)

Significant: Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead)
Advanced: Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Intermediate: Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft)
Impulse/Windswell: Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
On Sunday (5/24) North and Central California had chest to shoulder high windblown northwest local period windswell at exposed breaks. Southern California was small getting the same northwest windswell at waist high and textured early. Hawaii's North Shore had some thigh to waist high northeast angled sets occasionally breaking and clean. The East Shore was tiny with knee high northeast windswell at best. The South Shore had some small southwest leftover swell at thigh to waist high coming from the Tasman Sea and textured.  

The forecast for North and Central CA remains dismal for the short term, with smaller northwest junky local windswell for Wednesday shrinking some on Thursday, then gone by Friday and not budging above the flat line into next week. Southern CA is to see a fraction of this same northwest local windswell at exposed breaks into maybe Wednesday or Thursday if you're desperate, then turning dead flat and staying there into next week. Oahu's North Shore is become flat by Wednesday and stay there all week. Maybe a hint of northeast swell next Sunday (5/31) into Monday originating from a gale forecast northeast of the Islands this week, but that's far from a sure bet. The East Shore is not expected to see any normal easterly windswell for the foreseeable future, with trades suppressed. The South Shore is to see nothing for the next 6 days.

Longterm the picture remains much the same: Another little cutoff low is to form north of Hawaii on Saturday (5/30) possibly generating 14 ft seas aimed a bit west of Hawaii. A little hope for northern shores from this one. But of way more interest is a gale forecast for the South Pacific on Tues/Wed (5/27) still forecast to generate 35 ft seas aimed decently to the northeast targeting Hawaii a little but the US Mainland  better. And more is to follow next week with a gale forecast just east of New Zealand targeting the Islands quite nicely.  So use the down spell now to take care of business, and keep an eye on the long term prize (as if there is really any other alternative other than booking a trip to the Mentawais.

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
At the surface high pressure at 1024 mbs was centered 600 nmiles west of San Francisco ridging northeast into the Pacific Northwest generating the usual pressure gradient over Cape Mendocino down to Monterey Bay resulting in 25 kt north winds there with northerly windswell propagating south into Central CA with much less wrapping into exposed breaks in Southern CA. Trades remained suppressed over the Hawaiian Islands with very weak low pressure north of there. Over the next 72 hours through Friday (5/29) high pressure is to try and hold on till Wednesday with the associated windswell continuing, then fading out as low pressure starts developing 900 nmiles north of Hawaii on Thursday AM (5/28). A small fetch of 30 kt north to northeast winds are forecast in the lows west quadrant late at 37N 145W aimed well at the Islands, building to supposedly 35 kts early on Friday at the same location with seas to 20 ft.  The low to dissipate on Saturday. Possible small swell pushing into Hawaii late in the weekend if this comes to pass. 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

California Nearshore Forecast
On Tuesday (5/26) high pressure at 1024 mbs was holding 600 nmiles west of San Francisco ridging northeast to Oregon generating north winds to 25 kts over Pt Arena and lesser winds pushing south from there to well off Pt Conception, remaining well off the beaches from Pt Reyes south. Windswell was still present. A modest northwest to west flow was occurring on the coast and scheduled to slowly fade through Wednesday. The gradient is to hold into Wednesday AM (5/27) then start withering away with windswell dropping out and all but gone by Thursday as low pressure builds off the coast. No sign of high pressure or north winds from Thursday on through the weekend on well into next  week with a light wind pattern forecast nearshore. 

Tropics
No tropical activity of interest was occurring.

 

South Pacific

Overview
On Tuesday (5/26) the South Pacific jetstream remained split over it's width.  But a small trough was starting to build in the southern branch well southwest of Tahiti but with only 100 kt winds flowing up into it.  This could support gale development. A big ridge was covering the far Southeast Pacific shutting gale development down there. Over the next 72 hrs that weak trough is to hold while pushing east into Friday, but with the bulk of the energy taking a more west to east track rather than a northward push.  This suggests that whatever gale energy develops at the surface, it will be directing it's winds more towards Chile than northward over the longer haul. Beyond 72 hrs a certified trough is forecast building under New Zealand on Friday (5/29) 160 kt winds pushing well to the north with reinforcing energy holding into early Sunday.  And yet another pulse of energy is forecast pushing into this trough on Tuesday (6/2). This looks most favorable on the charts and offers good support for storm development assuming it comes to pass. 

At the surface on Tuesday (5/26) a new gale was forming in the Southwest Pacific generating a decent fetch of 40-45 kt southwest winds at 59S 177W and getting some traction.  By evening winds are forecast to near 45 kts at 58S 168W aimed well to the north pushing right up the 203 degree path to California and on the edge of the Tahiti swell shadow generating 30 ft seas at 54S 166W late a bit shadowed by Tahiti relative to California (203 deg) and pushing a bit east of 183 degree path to Hawaii. Additional 40-45 fetch is forecast on Wednesday AM (5/27) at 54S 162W pushing right up the 202 degree path to California almost unshadowed by Tahiti. 35 ft seas are forecast at 51S 160W pushing towards CA with sideband energy to Hawaii. In the evening a broad and fragmented fetch of 30-35 kt winds are forecast with a core to near 40 kts at 49S 152W aimed right up the 198 degree path to California resulting in 35 ft seas at 45S 152W tracking up the 198 degree path to CA (unshadowed) and mostly outside the range of Hawaii. The core fetch is to be effectively gone on Thursday AM (5/28) with residual 30 ft seas from previous fetch at 45S 145W pushing up the 196 degree path to California. If this system develops as forecast, some possible decent sized near significant class southern hemi swell could result for California up into the Pacific Northwest and Mexico. Tahiti might do quite well too.  Hawaii might even see near significant class sideband energy.  This is definitely something to monitor.

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a broad low pressure system is to seep off Kamchatka pushing to the dateline through the weekend (5/31). 25 kt winds are forecast with seas to the 15-16 ft range on the dateline at 42N 175E on Saturday (5/30), possibly pushing some tiny energy towards the Hawaiian Islands. If this actually develops it would be a testament to the strength of current Active phase of the MJO.

     

MJO/ENSO Update (reference): As of Tuesday (5/26) the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) was resurging in the Active Phase, with the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) index still negative. The Daily SOI index was up to -2.13 making it 31 days of near consecutive negative readings (since 4/26). The 30 day average was down to -9.47 (the lowest since 7/2007) and the 90 day average passed over a momentous threshold, into negative territory at -0.01 (the lowest since Mar 2007and still on a steep nosedive). The SOI indicies remained completely neutral at the moment but something appears to be happening on a grand scale. Wind anomalies at the surface and the 850 mb level (approx 1000 ft up) indicated that this second incarnation of the Active Phase has peaked out with weak westerly wind anomalies over the entire equatorial Western Pacific.  It looks like it's on it's last legs now with minimal residual to seep into Central America through 6/4. What was a new Inactive Phase that was trying to form in the Indian Ocean has all but dissipated. Perhaps we are entering a phase biased towards the Active Phase and less supportive of the Inactive Phase (a good thing if this occurs) The residual effects of 3 years of La Nina are effectively gone in the ocean, and fading fast in the Northern Hemisphere atmosphere (though the Southern Hemi will take another 2 months longer to heal). Cooler than normal surface waters off of Central America are gone with slightly warmer than normal waters temps reported over the entire width of the equatorial Pacific. Below the surface on the equator a steady flow of slightly warmer than normal subsurface water was tracking from the West Pacific over the dateline and then breaking the surface near Central America with warmer water starting to pool up there. It appears that previous episodes of the Active Phase have primed the warm water pump, and are now pushing warmer than normal subsurface water eastward with more building up behind, and feeding a slightly warm regime in the equatorial Eastern Pacific. This is very good news. Months of high pressure off California and stiff north winds there turning trades over Hawaii had resulted in a huge cool tongue of water extending from Central CA the whole way over Hawaii to the dateline which generated massive upwelling. That continues to moderate, through a large pocket of cooler than normal waters remains off California extending to almost Hawaii with no immediate abatement. We expect 1-2 more months of high pressure and local La Nina conditions before a fully neutral pattern takes hold and warmer waters start building off California. It can't happen soon enough with water temps in the San Francisco Bay Area hovering in the 51-53 degree mark.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours the models suggest that by late Thursday (5/28) a new gale (almost a storm) is to form southwest of New Zealand with a decent fetch of 45-50 kts forecast at 60S 170W aimed well to the north. But those winds are to quickly wrap into the storms north quadrant on Friday AM (5/30) at 55S 155W pushing to 55 kts and all aimed due east. Larger seas likely being generated but all pushing towards Peru. The gale is to push rapidly east with 45 kts west winds at 54S 140W in the evening.  This is a brand new system on the charts and confidence is not real high, but it is something to watch for. 

And yet beyond a larger system is forecast forming snuggled up to New Zealand starting Saturday PM (5/30) with 45 kt winds pushing almost due north continuing on Sunday (5/31) generating 40-45 kt south winds at 45S 180W continuing into the evening. 

And residuals from this are forecast to push to the Central South Pacific next Tuesday (6/2) with a fetch of near 50 kts south winds and more energy tracking under New Zealand likely feeding this system.  This is the first time this has hit the models (12Z run Tues), and we all know how unlikely the exact results will be, but it looks way more favorable than anything so far this season. 

Details to follow...

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

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MAVERICKSSURF MAVFILM MAVSURFER SURFPULSE Inside Mavericks Randy Cone Surfboards

Local Interest

Rebuild Jeff Clark: Jeff Clark the first pioneer of Mavericks, recently underwent hip resurfacing surgery due to severe pain from deterioration of his hip. Needless to say the procedure is very expensive and his insurance only covers tiny portion of the bill. If you're interested in learning about the procedure or would like to donate to help Jeff out, please take a look here: http://www.rebuildjeffclark.blogspot.com/

North California Surf Report Works Again: After an extended downtime we finally got the North California Surf Report working again. Thanks for your patience. See it here: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/report/ncal.html

Shark Video: Our friend Curt Myers of Powerlines productions shot this footage of 2 great whites munching on a whale carcass off Devils Slide (south of San Francisco) on Thursday. Kind of interesting to watch. Check it here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8I4rZYEZMWQ (Fixed link)

Wave Model Upgrade Status Report: At this point we believe the installation of the new wave models is complete, with no problems being reported, the server stabilizing and the much requested return of the old style hemispheric Surf Height models now operational (again) and running side-by-side along the new ones. We thank you for your patience and input as we went though this process.  Your feedback helps guide our efforts and ultimately results in a better product for everyone.  Now we're off to start providing better menus to some wave model products most of you probably haven't uncovered yet (site specific graph and text forecasts), updateing the wave model FAQs and then upgrading the Weather Models.  

New Wave Model Facts: Click HERE to read more about the new wave models. Important info.

Stormsurf Wave Models Updated: On Friday (2/6) we installed the latest upgrade to our wavemodels. A year in the works, this upgrade essentially is a total re-write of every wave model product we produce. They now take advantage of the new Version 3 of the Wavewatch wavemodel. This version runs at a much higher resolution, specifically 0.0 X 0.5 degrees for the global grib with local products at 0.1667 X 0.1667 degrees, and it uses the hi-res GFS model for wind speeds. And of even more interest, the model now identifies primary swell and windwave variables. As such we now have new model images which displays this data. Also we've included out special 3D topographic land masks into all models. In all it makes for a radical step forward in wave model technology. We'll be upgrading minor components (FAQ, new menu pages etc) for a few weeks to come, but all the basics are available for your use now. Check it out here: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_wam.html

Story About Stormsurf: The folks at SurfPulse (and specifically author Mike Wallace) have written up a really nice article about Stormsurf, complete with some good pics. Learn about how we came to be and a little of where we are going. Check it out here: http://www.surfpulse.com/2009/01/visceral-surf-forecasting-with-mark-sponsler/

Stormsurf Video: Just for fun - here's a clip about Stormsurf that ran on Bay Area TV a while back. Thought you might enjoy it: http://vimeo.com/2319455

The Kelly Slater Project - A group of dedicated surfers from Cocoa Beach are working to construct a statue of the the home town legend and set it up for all to enjoy near the break where Kelly grew up surfing. Take a look at the statue and read all about it here: http://www.thekellyslaterproject.com/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Need Chiropractic Help? Visit our friends at Darrow Chiropractic. Not only will Dr. Darrow fix you up, he might give you some big wave surfing tips too! See more here: http://www.darrowchiropractic.com/

Stormsurf Google Gadget - Want Stormsurf content on your Google Homepage? It's simple and free. If you have Google set as your default Internet Explorer Homepage, just click the link below and a buoy forecast will be added to your Google homepage. Defaults to Half Moon Bay CA. If you want to select a different location, just click on the word 'edit', and a list of alternate available locations appears. Pick the one of your choice. Content updates 4 times daily. A great way to see what waves are coming your way!
http://www.google.com/ig/add?moduleurl=http://www.stormsurf.com/gadget/stormsurf .xml

Free Stormsurf Stickers - Get your free stickers! - More details Here

Read all the latest news and happenings on our News Page here

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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