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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: May 22, 2008 7:38 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
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Swell Potential Rating = 1.5 - California & 1.5 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)
Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    
Issued for Week of Monday 5/19 thru Sun 5/25
Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Windswell for California
Southeast Swell Still Dribbles into HI

 

New Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead)
Advanced: Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Intermediate: Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft)
Impulse/Windswell: Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
On Thursday (5/22) Northern CA surf was double overhead and blown to bits. South facing breaks in Santa Cruz were waist to chest high and reasonably clean, considering what was going on just up the coast. Central California surf (Morro Bay) was 2-3 ft overhead and blown out. Surf in Southern CA from Santa Barbara to just north of LA was chest to head high and hard onshore early. The LA Area southward to Orange County was chest to head high and pretty hacked even early. South Orange County down into San Diego best breaks were head high and blown out. The North Shore of Oahu was flat. The South Shore was waist to chest high and a little ragged. The East Shore was knee high.

North/Central California was seeing alot of raw locally generated northwest windswell. Southern California was seeing a portion of that same windswell, biggest down south. Hawaii's North Shore was flat. The East Shore was effectively flat. The South Shore was getting a little swell from the gale that was off Chile last week.

For Friday on through the weekend North and Central California to continue seeing raw locally generated windswell biggest Friday then slowly fading into Saturday and Sunday before fading out entirely early Tuesday. It might be only windswell, but it is huge compared to what is coming over the long term, so make the most of it. Southern CA to see a percentage of this same windswell through early Saturday at exposed north facing breaks. The North Shore of Oahu to be flat for the foreseeable future.The South Shore to see a little more of that southeast swell through Saturday with luck. No windswell expected on the East Shore. The southern hemi to remain quiet for the next 7 days. A gale is forecast northwest of Hawaii early next week, offering just a hint of fetch aimed towards the Islands on east to California with luck. See details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Thursdays jetstream charts (5/22) for the North Pacific had a good flow pushing off Japan flowing under a weak trough just east of the dateline at 110 kts, then riding hard north into a strong ridge over the Gulf of Alaska with winds to 120 kts there, then sweeping down the US West Coast and pushing inland over Northern Baja. No support for low pressure development indicated, and only high pressure support was being provided (in the Gulf). Over the next 72 hours the big ridge in the Gulf is to pinch off and leaving a seasonal west to east flow over the width of the North Pacific on the 38N latitude, strongest in the west, but not strong enough. Beyond 72 hours this same flow is to persist with bit's of energy getting blown off to the north, keeping energy levels generally low. No support for gale or low pressure development indicated, but not horribly bad features either.

At the surface today high pressure at 1032 mbs was dug in deep just 600 nmiles off the Oregon Coast with low pressure inland over Nevada, forming a tight pressure gradient over Cape Mendocino generating 35-40 kt north winds whistling down the coast to Monterey Bay, with lesser winds pushing well down to Central Baja. Large raw local short period windswell was in the water tracking southward and impacting the Central CA coast with lesser energy wrapping into South CA. Over the next 72 hours this gradient is to peak out Thursday evening (5/22) with winds to near 45 kts forecast off Cape Mendocino, then slowly setting down through the day Friday and effectively gone by Saturday AM. Windswell size to follow the trend in the wind, hanging at 11 ft @ 10 secs Friday (9 ft faces) fading early Saturday from 7 ft @ 10 secs (6-7 ft faces) at exposed break north of Pt Conception.

A quick developing gale was winding up in the Northwestern Gulf late Thursday expected to move inland over Alaska Friday AM (5/23) with 40-45 kts winds, but all aimed northeast towards Alaska offering no swell generation potential.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

California Nearshore Forecast
On Thursday (5/22) high pressure at 1032 mbs was still building off the North CA coast with a tight gradient courtesy of lower pressure inland. By Thursday PM the gradient is to max out with 40-45 kt north winds over nearshore waters from Cape Mendocino to off Monterey Bay, then slowly fading through the day Friday and effectively gone by Saturday AM. Large windchop to continue over outer waters Friday, but a bit calmer nearshore in the 15-20 kts range early from San Francisco southward, but still wrapping into Southern CA in the 15 kts range too from the west. The gradient to be fading by Saturday with light southwest winds pushing into Central CA at 5 kts then calm to light southwest for the entire state by Sunday. A calm pattern to persist through Wednesday of next week with wins below 10 kts everywhere except the Channel Islands (though SCal beaches to be fine in the early mornings).

 

Tropics
No tropical systems of interest were occurring.

 

South Pacific

Overview
On Thursday (5/22) the jetstream over the South Pacific remained heavily split with energy equally shared between the north and south branches. The southern branch remained displaced well to the south flowing flat west to east over the 65-70S latitude, offering no support for low pressure development. Over the next 72 hours the southern branch is to develop a bit of a troughing pattern (pushing north) by Sunday (5/25) but still displaced well to the south and over Antarctic Ice. Beyond 72 hrs the trough to fade while pushing east with a new ridge building south of New Zealand mid-next week continuing the storm barricade in the upper levels of the atmosphere.

At the oceans surface no swell producing weather systems were indicated, and none forecast for the next 3 days.

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hrs on Mon/Tues (5/27) a pair of weak low pressure systems are to try and form, one off Japan and the second northwest of Hawaii over the dateline with 35-40 kt winds aimed somewhat down the great circle paths to Hawaii and the US West Coast for 24 hours. 23-25 ft seas forecast at 38N 170W pushing east to southeast. Will believe it when it happens.

Madden-Julian Oscillation Note: The MJO remains in the active phase, and strongly so with daily SOI values still negative as of 5/22, rebounding from -48 to -11 today , making it 7 days in a row in the negative range, with the larger 30 day trend now at -1. The 90 day trend is dropping quickly too, down from +20 in April to +6 as of today. This is interesting in that it is the first time the 30 day average has been at 0 or less since July of 2007, when it was coming out of the weak 2006 El Nino. Anomalous 850 mb westerly winds remained entrenched over the entire equatorial Pacific with the core stretched from the Philippines to mainland Mexico, and expected to hold till about 5/26 , then start dissipating as the inactive phase of the MJO builds into the Pacific from the Indian Ocean near June 1. No significant support for low pressure development likely from this pulse of the active phase of the MJO, except in the West Pacific tropics if at all. But of more interest is to see if this pulse of the MJO helps to start wiping cool waters associated with La Nina out of the central equatorial Pacific, possibly opening the door just a nudge towards El Nino, or at least towards a neutral pattern.

 

South Pacific

Something that almost resembles a gale is forecast to build in an upper trough scheduled southeast of New Zealand late Tuesday (5/27), but all it's fetch is to be landlocked over the building ice sheet of the Ross Ice Shelf (seasons switching from fall to winter in the Southern Hemisphere). No swell producing fetch forecast.

Details to follow...

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External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

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Local Interest

Time Zone Converter - Finally! By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Mavericks Contest 2008: View all the action from the 2008 Maverick Surf Contest from Powelines Productions here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9o5lj9CUpCc

Half Moon Bay Surfers - Attention: There¹s a movement afoot to dredge sand out of the Pillar Point (i.e. Half Moon Bay) Harbor and dump it just south of the jetty, so it will replenish all sand that¹s disappeared between the harbor and HMB. The guy who¹s spearheading the project, Brian Overfelt, has already received a positive preliminary reading from the local harbor commissioners. He¹s making a formal presentation to the Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary¹s advisory council this coming Friday (2/15) at Our Lady of Pillar church in Half Moon Bay. (It's on Kelly Ave, just east of the Coast Highway, across the street from Cunha Intermediate School.) starting at 9 AM. More details here: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/forecast/forecast/hmb_dredge.html

Need Chiropractic Help? Visit our friends at Darrow Chiropractic. Not only will Dr. Darrow fix you up, he might give you some big wave surfing tips too! See more here: http://www.darrowchiropractic.com/

Grib File Switchover: The old grib1 format wave model datafiles that have been the mainstay of the National Weather service for years now are scheduled to be retired on 1/26. We switched over to the new grib2 files starting with the 00z run of Thurs 1/17. All appears to be running fine. There is no functional change to the content of the models, just that files we receive are now smaller due to improved compression of grib2. But this sets us up to start processing new higher resolution files and building new products in the months ahead. So in all it's a good maintenance level change.

Sharkwater: There's a new feature film called Sharkwater that is hitting theaters November 2nd. Sharkwater is an award winning documentary (22 international film awards including the UN and Cannes) that broke box office records in Canada, opening to bigger numbers than any documentary in history save Fahrenheit 911 and Supersize Me. It is a conservation film that demonstrates that the biggest influence on the air we breathe, and global warming is life in the oceans except life in the oceans is being wiped out. Shark populations have dropped 90% in the last 30 years alone, and the oceans continue to be destroyed because nobody knows that it's happening Learn more here: http://www.sharkwater.com

Bluewater Gold Rush: The first and only chronicle of the California sea urchin dive fishery. Diving, surfing, comedy, and tragedy on and under the waves of California. "A quintessential tale of California ... dramas of adventure and loss on and under the sea" We read it and it's a great story about the bloom of the urchin diving boom in the 70's and the few lucky souls who were right there when it took off. An easy read that's hard to put down. The trials and success of a 'real' California dream right down to it's core. Check it out here: http://www.bluewatergoldrush.com

Submit your story to 'Surfings Greatest Misadventures: Vol. 2': DEADLINE: January 15th, 2008 Casagrande Press is seeking stories, articles, and essays on the general subject of surfing misadventure for publication in Surfings Greatest Misadventures: Volume 2. We are looking for nonfiction, first-person surf stories of bad judgment calls, pranks, comical/ironic episodes, disaster, attacking predators, misfortune, injury, loss of wit or limb, panic, critical conditions, contest meltdowns, everyday fears, surf trips gone wrong or the out-of-water episodes that surround surfing. We are looking for well-written stories that tell a good tale, reflect a culture, and develop the depth of the characters involved. We also like stories that have a tight narrative tension and a payoff at the end. Open to writers and surfers of any level. There is no fee to submit a story. We will consider previously published stories. To see more info on the first book visit www.thesurfbook.com. Submit online at www.casagrandepress.com

Waveriders Gallery: Check out this collection of high quality artwork all related to waves and the ocean. Surf Paintings, Photography, Posters, Books, Boards and exhibits all produced by a variety of top artists provide a beautiful selection of pieces to chose from. Take and look and see some of the stunning work available from these artists. http://www.waveridersgallery.net/

Stormsurf Google Gadget - Want Stormsurf content on your Google Homepage? It's simple and free. If you have Google set as your default Internet Explorer Homepage, just click the link below and a buoy forecast will be added to your Google homepage. Defaults to Half Moon Bay CA. If you want to select a different location, just click on the word 'edit', and a list of alternate available locations appears. Pick the one of your choice. Content updates 4 times daily. A great way to see what waves are coming your way!
http://www.google.com/ig/add?moduleurl=http://www.stormsurf.com/gadget/stormsurf .xml

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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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