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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: February 14, 2006 7:36 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
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Swell Potential Rating = 2.8 - California & 3.2 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)
Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    
Issued for Week of Monday 2/13 thru Sun 2/19
Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Utility swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of Utility swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Pacific Settles Down
Relative Calm to Move In

 

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
On Tuesday (2/14) Northern CA surf was 2-3 ft overhead and disorganized. South facing breaks in Santa Cruz were chest to head high with sets 1 ft overhead. Central California surf was head high to 1 ft overhead. Southern CA breaks from Santa Barbara to just north of LA were waist to chest high with best breaks to the head high range on sets and wind blown. The LA Area southward to Orange County was waist to chest high. Southward from Orange County into San Diego best breaks were waist to chest high with sets near head high. The North Shore of Oahu was head high with some slightly bigger sets and wind blown. The South Shore was flat. The East Shore was head high to 2 ft overhead.

Windswell was pushing into California putting a definitive end to what was a long stretch of clean longer period swell. Hawaii was in much the same position, but had the promise of some longer period swell on the charts from a storm currently over the northern most dateline area. Unfortunately California was too far away from that swell source to receive any benefit from it. And even in Hawaii there will not be too much size, but at least it will be well rideable. High pressure is the word and is locking down the entire Northeast Pacific for the foreseeable future. See details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Tuesdays (2/14) jetstream continued with a reasonably consolidated flow pushing off Japan at 130 kt with a bit of a trough centered just off the Kamchatka Peninsula. The stream started to split on the dateline with the southern branch tracking over Hawaii heading towards the equator while the northern branch pushed northeast over the Aleutians into the Bering Sea. There was no indication of any real support for surface level storm development. Over the next 72 hours the split in the jetstream is to retrograde to the west even more reaching a point half way between Japan and the dateline. The northern branch of the jet is to remain dominant pushing up into the western Bering Sea. No support for surface level storm development suggested. Beyond 72 hours no no real change is forecast with the only exception being a upper level cutoff low forming off California on Sunday.

At the surface today high pressure remained in control of the Eastern Pacific at 1040 mbs centered in the Gulf of Alaska pushing southward to Hawaii. A second high at 1024 mbs was southeast of Japan stretching from Japan to Hawaii. The only area of low pressure was off Kamchatka tracking northeast fast with no swell producing fetch suggested. Over the next 72 hours [through Friday 2/17] a series of weak and ineffectual lows are to track northeast off Northern Japan moving fast to the Western Bering Sea with no real swell producing fetch modeled while high pressure locks down the rest of the North Pacific.

On Sunday (2/12) a 980 mb storm formed midway between the Southern Kuril Islands and the dateline tracking northeast, but no swell producing fetch was evident. By Monday AM (2/13) pressure dropped to 960 mbs as the storm lifted north with 50 kt winds confirmed over a tiny area in the storms south quadrant aimed a bit north of Hawaii and a long way away from California at 45N 170E. Seas to 22 ft were building just south of there. Also a large fetch of 55 kt winds were in the storms east quadrant aimed north at the Aleutian Islands. The whole mess lifted north on Monday evening with 55 kt winds still pushing into the Aleutians and a small 45-50 kt fetch still aimed east in the storm south quadrant near 45N 180W. Seas to 30 ft suggested. By Tuesday AM the storm was totally landlocked in the Bering Sea while high pressure held in the Gulf of Alaska at 1040 mbs. Some 30 ft seas were still modeled hanging south of the Aleutians but pushing mostly to the Pacific Northwest and targets north of there. Best bet is for some decent sized utility swell to push southeast towards Hawaii arriving Thursday (2/16) holding into Friday.

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

California Offshore Forecast
On Tuesday (2/14) the models indicated high pressure in control for the coming week and beyond. Currently the most interesting one was centered right smack in the middle of the Gulf of Alaska at 1042 mbs elongated along a north south line positioned midway between Hawaii and California. Two low pressure systems are to move south inland of the Pacific Northwest coast forming a gradient and generating brisk north winds along coastal waters. The first low is to be over Central California late Tuesday (2/14) producing windswell currently in the water. Another is forecast over the weekend, though not as strong, starting over Oregon and pushing south into California. Offshore winds to take over next week.

The detailed 5 Day wind forecast is now included with the surf & swell overview in the QuikCAST's.

 

South Pacific

Overview
No swell producing fetch forecast over the next 72 hours.

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours high pressure to retain control of the Eastern Pacific and make significant inroads into the Western Pacific with a new one at 1032 mbs developing off Japan stretching to the dateline. It's to build to 1048 mbs on Tuesday (10/21) as it tracks into the Gulf of Alaska while two weak cutoff low form south of it, one off California and another over the dateline. The interesting thing about both lows is they are to form a gradient with the dominant high to the north, with gradients developing and all wind in the gradient blowing from east to west, aimed at Japan. In other words, a massive offshore flow is forecast across the North Pacific. There is some minor swell generation potential from the gradient off California aimed at Hawaii, but it will be windswell if it forms at all.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

Details to follow...


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Tutorial on the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) Presented by Dr. Roland Madden: If you're interested in El Nino and the MJO, have a basic understanding of El Nino, and you have broadband connection, audio and Macromedia Flash installed, then the following presentation is a must see. Dr Madden present a great overview of how the MJO works. And there's nothing like hearing it straight from the founders mouth. Link here: http://meted.ucar.edu/climate/mjo/mjonav0.htm

Read all the latest news and happenings on our News Page here

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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