Click Here To Visit Mulcoy Travel!
Click Here to Visit Vunabaca!
> STORMSURF Video Surf Forecast for the Week Starting 8/17/2014 - See it HERE
Buoys | Buoy Forecast | Models | Pacific Forecast | QuikCAST | Chartroom | El Nino | Tutorials | Reports | Great Circles | News | Video

Google

Stormsurf Mobile App

Create Your Own Surf Forecast
Swell Calculator
Swell Decay Tables
Sea Height Tables
Swell Category Table
Add STORMSURF to your Homepage:
Add to Google
Convert from GMT:
 
 to timezone:

---
Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Saturday, February 1, 2014 11:38 AM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
Swell Potential Rating = 2.3 - California & 3.2 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)
Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    
Issued for Week of Monday 2/3 thru Sun 2/9
Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Dateline Swell Pushing Towards Hawaii
Smaller Dateline Swell to Follow - Then Thinks Quiet Down

 

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

 

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Saturday
(2/1) in North and Central CA surf was chest high and soft with warble and and bit of light chop in the water. Pretty much just windswell. Down in Santa Cruz surf was waist to chest high and clean but weak and sloppy. In Southern California up north surf was mostly flat with maybe a thigh high set with luck and clean but gutless. Down south waves were waist to chest high and weak and lumpy but rideable. Hawaii's North Shore had limited generic swell with waves shoulder to head high and and clean with modest south winds initially. The South Shore was flat. Exposed breaks on the East Shore were getting wrap-around swell at waist high and clean with south to southwest wind. 

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
A small cutoff gale developed in the Gulf tracking southeast Fri-Sat (2/1) to a point just off North CA on Sat (2/1) with seas initially 29 ft over a tiny area, setting up small raw swell for Mon (2/3). A cutoff gale was developing just east of the dateline on Sat (2/1) with 26-28 ft seas targeting Hawaii. A secondary very small system to develop on the dateline Sun-Mon (2/3) falling southeast again targeting Hawaii with 26 ft seas with swell there mid-week. But after that the bottom falls out. Perhaps a cutoff gale to form in the Gulf Fri-Sat (2/8) with 22 ft seas targeting mainly California. But that's along ways from forming yet.

Details below...

Note: NDBC has issued a schedule to start repairing buoys as of 11/12/13. Unfortunately no buoys of interest to California are scheduled through September 2014. TOA Array (El Nino Monitoring) buoys are set for maintenance in April 2014.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream   - On Saturday (2/1) the jetstream was tracking flat off Japan and a bit diffuse with winds barely 120 kts, then splitting mid-way to the dateline with the northern branch tracking up into the Bering Sea. The remaining wind energy tracked flat east to and point 300 nmiles north of Hawaii moving at 120 kts, then split again with the southern branch diving towards the equator and the northern branch tracking north a bit then turning east and pushing southeast into Southern CA. A weak cutoff trough was in place northwest of Hawaii offing very limited support for gale development there. Over the next 72 hours more of the same is forecast but with winds fading more, down to barely 120 kts and more diffuse still. But a cutoff trough is to persist northwest of Hawaii into Tues (2/40 with 120 kts winds in it's apex offering a hint of support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours the split in the jet off Japan is to build tracking hard north up into the Bering Sea on Wed (2/5) then falling hard south over the dateline reinforcing the trough north of Hawaii into Thursday. A new weak trough to form over the US West Coast offering hope for more weather there. But by Fri-Sat (2/8) the split in the west is to dissipate for the moment with a generally flat and weak jet in play tracking from Japan over the dateline and then into California. Winds to be generally below 110 kts offering no support for gale development and increasing the likelihood of another split developing.  

Surface Analysis  - On Saturday (2/1)  swell from a weak fetch that developed in the Western Gulf Wed PM (1/29) generating 35 kt westerly winds and 24+ ft seas up at 50N 164W targeting the US West Coast somewhat down the 308 deg path. Maybe some very small and weak 14 sec period swell to result for NCal starting Sun AM (2/2) pushing 4 ft @ 14 secs by noon (5.5 ft). And an equally weak gale developed off the Kuril Islands Wed PM (1/29) with 40-45 kt northwest winds and barely 30 ft seas at 44N 162E (312 degs HI) perhaps good for well decayed background swell arriving at Hawaii on Sun AM (2/2) peaking near noon at 4 ft @ 15-16 secs (6 ft). But the pattern is definitely one not really suggestive of solid swell.  

A small gale developed in the Gulf falling southeast on Fri AM (1/31) with 40 kt west winds over a tiny area generating 28 ft seas in the Am at 45N 154W (296 degs NCal). The gale tracked southeast with winds down to 35 kts in the evening with seas 24 ft at 43N 148W (296 degs NCal). This gale faded overnight with 25 kt west winds over at tiny area off NCal Sat AM (2/1) with seas fading from 18 ft at 42N 142W on the 293 degs path to NCal 1100 nmiles out. Small 15 sec period swell is expected into NCal on Sunday evening (2/2) and peaking before sunrise Monday at 6 ft @ 14 secs (8 ft) fading by sunrise from 6 ft @ 13 secs (7.5 ft faces) and in combination with the previous Gulf Gale (above). Swell maybe 6 ft @ 13 secs (7.5 ft faces).   

Also a cutoff gale developed just east of the dateline on Fri AM (1/31) generating 30-35 kt northeast winds building to 45 kts in the evening and turning to pure north winds. Still most fetch was aimed southwest to south or at open ocean though the wave model suggested 26 ft sea at 35N 170W aimed due south or sending sideband energy down the 321 degree path to Hawaii. Sat AM (2/1) supposedly 45 kt north to northwest winds were starting wrap into the gales southwest quadrant generating 30 ft seas at 33N 171W (318 degs HI). By evening winds to fade from 35 kts but fully wrapping into the gale south quadrant with seas fading from 26 ft at 30N 168W (312 degs HI) and targeting the Islands better. This system is to be gone by Sun AM (2/2) with northwest fetch fading from 30 kts and seas dropping from 20 ft at 30N 164W (328 degrees HI and 600 nmiles out). If all goes as forecast some nice 15 sec period swell could result for Hawaii by Sun evening to 7 ft @ 15 secs (10 ft). Residuals to fade Mon AM (2/3) from 8 ft @ 13-14 secs early (10.5 ft).  Swell Direction: 318-328 degrees

Yet another small gale is forecast developing Sun PM (1/2) on the dateline with a tiny area of 35 kt northwest winds and 20 ft seas at 40N 180W aimed at Hawaii down the 319 deg path and falling south-southeast. 40 kts wind to build overnight over a tiny area falling southeast with seas building to 26 ft at 35N 175W Mon AM (1/3) (315 degs HI). Fetch to dissipate from 30 kts Mon PM with seas dropping from 22 ft over a modest sized area at 32N 171W (315 degs) and only 850 nmiles out. Perhaps more swell to result for Hawaii by Wed (2/5).

 

  North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropics
No tropical systems of interest were being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Saturday (2/1) north winds at 15+ kts and chop were associated with a small area of high pressure just off Central CA. About 11 inches of snow accumulated in Tahoe from last weeks minor precipitation event. By later Saturday north winds are expected to start backing off as a new local low pushes up to Cape Mendocino late, with south winds likely Sunday for all of North and Central CA. Light to modest rain starting Sunday AM for North CA pushing into Central CA mid-day and Southern CA late evening into early Monday. But that precipitation is to be mainly offshore and not reaching inland far, Maybe a dusting of snow for Tahoe Sunday late afternoon. By Monday weak high pressure and 5-10 kt northwest winds to again set up for North and Central CA. The high is to organize better Tuesday continuing northwest winds at 15 kts for all of North and Central CA faltering a bit on Wed (2/5) as a weak upper low moves into Central CA late. But on Thursday high pressure to build in strong from the Eastern Gulf with 30-35 kt north winds forecast for all of Northern CA and 25+ kts down to the southern Channel Islands late. Maybe a dusting of snow for Tahoe Wed PM and up to 1-2 inches of accumulation through the day Thursday before the high totally takes over. 20-25 kt northwest winds to hold all day Friday for all of CA. But theoretically those winds to dissipate Saturday as a new gale builds in the Gulf with much precipitation poised off the coast. Likely just a model fantasy.

South Pacific

Overview
Surface  - No swell producing weather systems were in play.  Over the next 72 hours no swell producing gale activity is forecast aimed up into our forecast area. 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 virtually no swell production is forecast with a split jetstream flow aloft destroying the storm track.  

MJO/ENSO Update
Note: The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equatorial Pacific it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slack if not an outright reversal of trade winds and enhanced precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Beyond 72 virtually no swell production is forecast with a split jetstream flow aloft destroying the storm track.That split flow is to regroup some next weekend with a small gale developing in the Central Gulf of Alaska late Fri (2/7)  producing a broader area of 35 kt west winds Sat AM (2/8) with seas building to 22 ft targeting the US West Coast. At this time that's more a fantasy than anything believable.

MJO/ENSO Update
Note: The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equatorial Pacific it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slack if not an outright reversal of trade winds and enhanced precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

As of Saturday (2/1) the daily Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was rising to 21.47. The 30 day average was up to 12.34 and the 90 day average was up at 6.85. This is a continuation of what is an unexpected upward spike in the SOI. The near term trend based on the SOI was indicative of a Inactive Phase of the MJO. The longer term pattern was indicative of the Inactive Phase. The SOI tends to be a lagging indicator running a week behind surface level weather trends, so the move into positive readings is not unexpected.  

Current equatorial surface wind analysis indicated modest west anomalies were in control of the Eastern Maritime Continent pushing over the dateline then fading to neutral south of Hawaii. This is the remnants of a strong Westerly Wind Burst (WWB) that started 1/8, peaked 1/28 and is now on the decline. neutral anomalies were in control into Central America. A week from now (2/8) modest easterly anomalies are forecast taking over the Maritime Continent fading to neutral over the dateline and south of Hawaii. Weak easterly anomalies are forecast from there into Central America. In all this suggests the Active Phase of the MJO was still in control over the West Pacific and is moving east but not quite making it.  The WWB has created prime conditions for development of another Kelvin Wave.  

The longer range models (dynamic and statistical) run on 1/30 are reasonably in agreement where it counts. Both suggest a modestly active pattern was in-play today with the Active Phase of the MJO over the West Pacific.  The statistic model suggests the Active Phase is to hold into the next 10 days while easing east, then slowly start fading 15 days out while moving just east of the dateline but still coherent. This model has progressively increased the duration of the current Active Phase of the MJO. Conversely the dynamic model (using data from 1/28) remains stubborn suggesting the current Active Phase is to hold just west of the dateline for the next 15 days building steadily to a moderate if not weakly strong status over the next 5-10 day, then starting to fade. Even as of now the situation is most promising in that a Kelvin Wave looks likely to form, and the Dynamic models suggests yet more west winds might result. The ultra long range upper level model updated on 2/1 has backed off now suggesting a weak Active Phase was over the Central Pacific and is to track east and fading, moving inland over the East Pacific on Feb 11. In parallel a new stronger Inactive Phase is to set up in the west on Feb 11 easing east and moving into the East Pacific 3/11 while a new weak Active Phase builds behind it starting 3/6. The upper level model tends to be a leading indicator, with surface level anomalies lagging behind 1 week or more.  

The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean.  As of now (1/30) a completely neutral water temp pattern covers the equator from Central America to the Philippines other than one pool of slightly negative water temps south of Hawaii extending west to the dateline and slightly warmer water on the equator nestled up to and off Ecuador. Overall equatorial water temps are biased on the warm side of neutral (+0.25 degs C). The slightly warm pool on the equator in the Eastern Pacific continues to be losing a little coverage as compared to previous imagery, with perhaps even a small area of slightly cool water on the equator south of Baja. Still a pocket of warmer water continue in control over Chile and Peru too, and appears to have built more from the previous images, suggesting some positive effect caused by a Kelvin Wave impacting the coast there. This almost looks like a weak El Nino signature, but that is a very premature analysis. Warm water from off the South American coast is getting driven west along the equator by trades. The previous California cool plume tracking southwest to the equator driven by high pressure off California is gone with warm waters starting to build along the North CA coast. Thousands of miles of warmer water lurking between Japan and just off the North CA coast is moving east and almost reaching the coast. A sympathetic cool pool that had developed off Africa continues to loose ground. In short, there's no sign of a legitimate warm pattern developing yet, but there are more hints and suggestions of such a pattern trying to develop. For now we remain in a pure neutral pattern, with tendencies towards a warmer state.

Subsurface waters temps on the equator indicate a somewhat concerning scenario with cooler than normal water (-2 deg c) still holding 100m down at 110W (off Central America). This cool patch is blocking any warm flow trying to move east. But it covered a much larger area a week ago and is down to just a small concentrated patch under the equatorial East Pacific now. At the same time warm water +3 deg C is building under the dateline and increasing in temp and coverage with it's leading edge at 165W. This could possibly be the start of a new Kelvin Wave, especially seeing how there has been 24 days of modest to strong westerly anomalies west of the dateline (a Westerly Wind Burst) with another few days of such anomalies expected to continue. All warm water from a previous Kelvin Wave was now east of the TOA buoys and off the chart, impacting Central America. This warm pool is expected to provide slight warming to the already neutral to warm surface warm pool near the Galapagos (a good thing) over the next 30-45 days. The hope is this will add some fuel to the jetstream over the next 2 months. And the westerly wind burst over the Maritime Continent might force yet another Kelvin Wave adding yet more fuel to what is at this time some smoke of a potentially developing fire. But it's far too early to know with any certainty.  

Projections from the CFSv2 model run 1/30 continue stable. The model has been continuously suggesting some form of warming starting in Feb 2014 building to + 0.75-1.0 deg C by late July 2014. Recent runs are up to the +1.25 deg C range by Oct 2014. For the immediate future (this Winter) an effective neutral pattern is expected with temps hovering below +0.5 deg C through April. But a slow but steady increase is to set in. If anything, those increase are starting to appear on the current water temp plots. A consensus of other models suggests slow warming, but not passing beyond mildly positive territory till Spring of next year.  

Overall the immediate outlook remains nothing stellar, but trending towards something that would be considered right on the threshold of warm, by Summer 2014, assuming one were to believe the models. All this is good news. If anything the ocean is in a recharging mode, with cold water from the 2010-2011 La Nina dispersed and temperatures gradually on the rise again in fit's-and-starts. We are in a neutral ENSO pattern with neither a solid El Nino or La Nina imminent. Expect a neutral pattern for Winter of 2013-2014 with perhaps a slightly warmer pattern by early 2014. But, the cool water in the Atlantic, and the developing cool pool at depth off Central America give us cause for concern. The weak presence of the Inactive Phase of MJO in the summer of 2013 still seems to be biasing the weather global pattern. But with the ocean turning neutral, we suspect the atmosphere will make the turn as well over the next few months (into March 2014). This is a better place than previous years (2010-2011, 2011-2012 and 2012-2013) under the direct influence of La Nina. It is becoming apparent we've finally recovered from the 2009-2010 El Nino. Longer term the expectation is there will be at least one to two years of neutral temperatures ultimately converging in a stronger warmer pattern and possible El Nino 2-3 years out (2015 or 2016). And historically, this is the 'normal' pattern (a few years of false starts post La Nina before a legit El Nino forms).

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool and more details in the  El Nino Update Updated 12/4/13 

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.   

Details to follow...

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

Add a STORMSURF Buoy Forecast to your Google Homepage. Click Here: Add to Google
Then open your Google homepage, hit 'edit' button (top right near graph), and select your location


MAVFILM Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Updated - Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (1/26) - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0mrSC87epKg&feature=youtu.be&hd=1
Subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel for automatic notifications of updates - just click the 'Subscrib'e button below the video.

- - -

Click here to learn more about Casa Noble Tequila! Casa Noble Tequila If you are looking for an exquisite experience in fine tequila tasting, one we highly recommend, try Case Noble. Consistently rated the best tequila when compared to any other. Available at BevMo (in California). Read more here: http://www.casanoble.com/

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Stormsurf Google Gadget - Want Stormsurf content on your Google Homepage? It's simple and free. If you have Google set as your default Internet Explorer Homepage, just click the link below and a buoy forecast will be added to your Google homepage. Defaults to Half Moon Bay CA. If you want to select a different location, just click on the word 'edit', and a list of alternate available locations appears. Pick the one of your choice. Content updates 4 times daily. A great way to see what waves are coming your way!
http://www.google.com/ig/add?moduleurl=http://www.stormsurf.com/gadget/stormsurf .xml

Free Stormsurf Stickers - Get your free stickers! - More details Here

Read all the latest news and happenings on our News Page here

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

186

.
Contact | About | Disclaimer | Privacy
Advertise/Content | Links
Copyright © 2014 STORMSURF - All Rights Reserved
This page cannot be duplicated, reused or framed in another window without express written permission.
But links are always welcome.
Buoys | Buoy Forecast | Models | Pacific Forecast | QuikCAST | Chartroom | El Nino | Tutorials | Reports | Great Circles | Calculator | News