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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: January 23, 2012 10:05 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
Swell Potential Rating = 3.5 - California & 2.2 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)
Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    
Issued for Week of Monday 1/23 thru Sun 1/29
Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Small Gale Winding Up on Dateline
Another Smaller One to Follow

 

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Monday (1/23) North and Central CA was seeing
local swell still producing waves at near triple overhead and  hacked with strong northwest winds. Down south waves were head high or a little more and hacked by westerly winds.  Southern California up north was getting local swell at head high or better and torn apart by onshore winds. Down south waves were maybe shoulder high and chopped. Hawaii's North Shore was seeing fading sideband swell with waves chest high and clean. The South Shore was flat and clean. The East Shore was getting limited wrap-around sideband energy with waves waist high and chopped with light trades in effect.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view

Meteorological Overview
The last of the rain and snow was moving out of California as high pressure was moving in and taking control, with the all too familiar split jetstream pattern forecast back in full effect over the Greater Pacific in a few days. A new  gale was building 1200 nmiles north-northwest of Hawaii with seas to 37 ft, but fading Tuesday while racing northeast. A merest pulse of swell possible for all. After that the models are hinting of perhaps another tiny system spinning up on the dateline Wed-Thurs (1/260 but quickly dissipating before making any decent eastern headway. A weak system to follow in the same area, then quieter still. 

   

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream - On Monday (1/23) the jet was configured in a single stream flowing flat off Japan tracking over the dateline and falling into a weak trough, then ridging slightly just north of Hawaii and tracking up to the Pacific Northwest before falling into a trough pushing inland over Central California. Winds were 170 kts over Japan fading some on the dateline, then rebuilding to 160 kts off the US West Coast. The clockwise cut-off circulation over the North Pole was still present too, but now smaller than before and sucking some energy off the jet near Japan and returning those winds in the Western Gulf. In all there was limited support for gale development in the dateline trough.  Over the next 72 hours the same basic flat west to east flow is forecast for the greater Pacific with winds holding at 180 kts over Japan and with the North Pole circulation fading out and the split flow becoming far more pronounced north of Hawaii. The southern branch is to flow right over Hawaii bound for the equator with the northern branch tracking weakly up into British Columbia. No clear support for gale development indicated except for maybe right on the dateline. Beyond 72 hours the same pattern is to become well entrenched by Saturday (1/28) with 190 kt winds over Japan then fading while pushing east to the split point which is to be relocated a tad to the east and just north of Hawaii, with the same old split flow east of there. No change expected into the middle of next week either. no real support for gale development indicated.  

Surface  -  On Monday (1/23) a small gale was wrapping up just east of the dateline and heading east (see Dateline Gale below). Residual disturbed weather was fading fast just off the Central CA coast while moving inland there and of no interest. High pressure at 1024 mbs was displaced to the south mid-way between Hawaii and Pt Conception starting to set up a local pressure gradient and northwest winds just off Pt Conception and nearby areas. A malformed low pressure area was over Japan and the Southern Kuril Islands and of no interest. Over the next 72 hours the Dateline Gale is to be of most interest, but with only a short life. Another low is forecast building behind just west of the dateline starting Wed (1/25) with 40 kt westerly winds early building to 45 kts in the evening with seas to 34 ft at 38N 174E. The gale is to push east and be fading Thursday AM (1/26) with winds down to 40 kts and seas peaking at 36 ft at 37N 180W, then effective dissipated by evening with seas dropping fast from 28 ft at 37N 172W . decent support for swell development targeting Hawaii initially and then the US West Coast, but with swell decay taking a good chunk out of it's size. All this assuming the models are on track. 

Dateline Gale
A fetch of 30-35 kt southwest to west winds built in association with a gale on the dateline Sunday AM (1/22) near 33N 180W with seas on the increase. In the evening west and northwest winds built to 45 kts over a tiny area with seas building from 20 ft at 37N 171W. 50-55 kt west winds built 1100 nmiles north-northwest of Hawaii on Monday AM (1/23) with seas building to 36 ft out at 39N 168W (340 degs HI). This system is to east steadily east in the evening with winds fading from 45 kts targeting mainly the Pacific Northwest coast with seas peaking at 38 ft at 40N 162W (295 degs NCal). Tuesday AM (1/24) fetch is to be rebuilding at 45 kts while racing east bound for  British Columbia and seas dropping from 34 ft at 46N 154W (299 degs NCal). Fetch in the evening is to be just offshore Vancouver Island at 55 kts with seas 34 ft up at 46N 140W (307 degs NCal) and all energy bound for the Pacific Northwest and point northward. Something to monitor at best mainly for Central CA northward. Sideband swell likely for Hawaii.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival maybe right at sunset on Tues (1/24) with swell to 6 ft @ 14-15 secs (8.5 ft).  Swell to continue on Wed (1/25) at 8.1 ft @ 13 secs  (10-11 ft) early and fading as the day continues.  Swell Direction: 310 degrees

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropics
No tropical systems of interest were being monitored.
 
 

California Nearshore Forecast
On Monday (1/23) low pressure was moving quickly onshore over Central CA with high pressure and northwest winds over outer waters focused mainly off Pt Conception. By Tuesday high pressure starts ridging northeast into Central CA with north winds forecast off Pt Conception at 15-20 kts and less into North and South CA. Perhaps a lighter northerly flow in North and Southern CA but still up to 20 kts near Pt Conception and continuing on Thursday, with north winds building northward up into Cape Mendocino later in the day. Friday north winds forecast from Pt Conception northward into Oregon at 20 kts over outer waters though less nearshore. On Saturday a northeast flow to possibly build-in a high pressure moves into the Great Basin, holding into Sunday. But more high pressure to be building offshore likely starting to make it's move east by Monday (1/30) offering the prospect for northerly winds again for Central CA. 

 

South Pacific

Overview
At the surface in the South Pacific no swell producing fetch was occurring.  Over the next 72 hours no change is forecast.    

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hrs a broad but unorganized low is to try and develop just west of the dateline starting Fri (1/27) with pressure 984 mbs. Winds forecast to 40 kts in fragmented area  with seas to 24-26 ft in two discrete areas aimed generally west. The system is to become more cohesive on Saturday (1/28) with a consolidate westerly fetch of 40-45 kts resulting in seas of 26 ft at 35N 175E holding into the evening and easing northeast. On Sunday AM (1/29) fetch is to be fading with seas from previous fetch to 30 ft up at 45N 172W (297 degs NCal) and then dissipating. Some small longer mid-to-longer period swell possible for both Hawaii and the US West Coast. 

MJO/ENSO Update
Note: The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather event that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized by either enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equatorial Pacific it is on control of or slack if not an outright reversal of trade winds and enhanced precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 day, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. During the Inactive Phase the jetstream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecast for MJO activity.

As of Monday (1/23) the daily Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was down slightly at 23.32. The 30 day average was down some to 10.89 (through overall still pretty high) with the 90 day up slightly at 14.11. It looks like some weak form of Active Phase MJO was trying to develop, but weak is the operative word.    

Current wind analysis indicated easterly anomalies had rebuilt over the dateline region extending from 160W over the dateline to 140E.  Westerly anomalies extended from Indonesia to 140E. This suggests a weak version of the Active Phase of the MJO which was in-play is getting eroded/beaten back. A week from now (1/31) the models indicate those easterly anomalies are to fade some, but still be in-place  from 170W to 130E but not as strong as today. Westerly anomalies to holds west of 110E. The longer range models suggest that a weak version of the Active Phase of the MJO is present west of the dateline (140E) and is expected to ease east east for the next 2 weeks into early February.  At this point, we're saying that it not likely, and if anything, the Active Phase is effectively over. We believe that a persistent and stubborn Inactive Phase of the MJO is building back in. With La Nina as firmly entrenched as it has been, it would be a miracle to see any real Active Phase activity.

Remnants of what was a moderate plus strength La Nina Pattern (where the Inactive Phase takes control) are still evident and momentum from this La Nina event are expected to hold well into the Spring of 2012. In short, it's going to be tough for surfers in the Eastern Pacific and Eastern Atlantic, though shores of the West Pacific and Atlantic might do well from the Inactive Phase's dominance during tropical/summer months.  That is not to say there will be no storms, in fact, there could be short periods of intense activity when the Active Phase of the MJO gets an opportunity to come to fruition, but that will be the exception rather than the rule, with the Inactive Phase trying to keep a cap on storm activity. 

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool and more details in the  El Nino update.  

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

Details to follow...

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

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Local Interest

Steve Colleta Surfboards - Check out surfboards by local shaper Steve Coletta - A long time Santa Cruz local and master shaper. Progressive shapes for North and Central CA waves http://www.naturalcurvesboards.com

Chasing the Swell has been nominated for a Webby Award. See details of this great piece of video journalism below. Some say this is the "Oscars" of online awards.One of the awards is voter based. If you have a moment, please cast your ballot by going to: http://webby.aol.com, register, then click on the "Get Voting" tab and then to the "Online Film and Video" > "Sports" category and vote for "Chasing the Swell".

Timmy Reyes - Curt Myers from Powerlines Productions found this little gem with Timmy Reyes providing a brief statement about which sites he uses for swell chasing. Thought we'd pass it on. Enjoy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P30ZCQOsYwY

Buell Wetsuits - When surfing in Santa Cruz, we've been seeing a new wetsuit in the line-up worn by many top flight surfers. They're getting good traction and are well respected. Take a look: http://www.buellwetsuits.com/

Stormsurf Mobile App (1/9/11) We are proud to announce the official public release of our smartphone mobile app. It provides access to our most popular and commonly used products, optimized for use on the road, on the beach or anywhere you don't have a desktop or laptop.  With a smart phone and signal, you will have access to our data. And we're not talking just a few teaser products - We're talking full feature wave models, weather models, real-time buoy data, manually built forecasts and hundreds of spot wave and wind forecasts enabling you to construct a surf forecast for any location on the planet, all from your cell phone and all for free.  No subscription required and no hidden fees. And better yet, there's a few new things sprinkled in that are not yet available even on our full-featured web site. From your smart phones browser just navigate to: www.stormsurf.com/mobile 

Mavericks Surf Shop Grand OpeningSunday, December 19 2:00 - 6:00 p.m. rain or shine!  Check out the new home of Jeff Clark's Mavericks Surf Shop, now located at 25 Johnson Pier in Pillar Point Harbor.  The shop features much of Clark's surfing memorabilia, classic boards and photos, as well as an entirely new line of Jeff Clark original Mavericks clothing, accessories and surfboards. The shop has been open in the new location since December 8, and the Grand Opening party is set for this coming Sunday, just in time for Christmas.  The party starts at 2 p.m., with live music, food and drinks. Jeff Clark and many Mavericks surfers will be there to meet the public. Local restaurants Ketch Joanne's and Princeton Seafood will serve up delicious food, while San Francisco Wine Trading Company is providing the beverages.  The shop will be open all weekend, from 9 a.m. to 8 p.m. on Saturday and Sunday.

Stormsurf Maintenance Upgrades: Buoy 46059 and 46012 were replaced a month or so ago. Totally new buoys were installed. Here on Stormsurf we had to reset the algorithms used to calculate 'pure swell' for them. That was accomplished on 11/13. Pure swell numbers are now correct. Links: 46012, 46059

Also since we moved to the new weather model server last month we discovered that our Longrange Precipitation Models ceased to display frozen precipitation (as they once did). Some of our scripts did not get installed on the new server. That has been fixed (11/13) and now snow is again viewable worldwide. Here the new North America sample.

Chasing The Swell: Sachi Cunningham from the LA Times spent the entirety of last winter chasing surfers and swells around the North Pacific with her high def video cam. Her timing couldn't have been any better with the project exactly coinciding with the strongest El Nino in 12 years resulting in the best big wave season in a decade. And being an accomplished surfer herself helped her to bring a poignant and accurate account of the what it's like to ride big waves and the new (and some not so new) personalities that are revitalizing the sport. This is must-see material for any surfer or weather enthusiast. Check it out here: http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/chasingtheswell/

New Weather Models With the activation of our new server we have now released a new block of weather models including North America jetstream, wind and precipitation, local coastal wind forecasts in 1 hr increments and snow and mountain wind forecasts in both 1 and 3 hours increments. The new animations can be found here (look for those items tagged with the New! icon): http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_wx.html

New Weather Model Server Stormsurf has installed another weather model production server. This has enabled us to spread the load across more servers allowing us to post both wave and weather model updates much quicker.  Also we are testing new content (like North America jetstream, winds and precipitation, local wind forecasts in 1 hr increments and snow and mountain wind forecasts in both 1 and 3 hours increments). The model menus will be updated shortly with these new links.   

Click here to learn more about Casa Noble Tequila! Casa Noble Tequila If you are looking for an exquisite experience in fine tequila tasting, one we highly recommend, try Case Noble. Consistently rated the best tequila when compared to any other. Available at BevMo (in California). Read more here: http://www.casanoble.com/

New Wave Model Facts: Click HERE to read more about the new wave models. Important info.

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Stormsurf Google Gadget - Want Stormsurf content on your Google Homepage? It's simple and free. If you have Google set as your default Internet Explorer Homepage, just click the link below and a buoy forecast will be added to your Google homepage. Defaults to Half Moon Bay CA. If you want to select a different location, just click on the word 'edit', and a list of alternate available locations appears. Pick the one of your choice. Content updates 4 times daily. A great way to see what waves are coming your way!
http://www.google.com/ig/add?moduleurl=http://www.stormsurf.com/gadget/stormsurf .xml

Free Stormsurf Stickers - Get your free stickers! - More details Here

Read all the latest news and happenings on our News Page here

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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